Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

Just FYI, the commodity futures/flows data is pointing to a gigantic energy deficit in Europe this winter.

Europe will probably be substituting oil for NG in generating power, likely elevating prices even with a recession curbing demand.

I expect a very large stagflationary recession in Europe coming up. The ECB hasn’t even gotten out of bed. While it’s likely that inflation is peaking in the US, IMHO, I think it could continue on to 15% or more in Europe, and the euro could fall to ~80¢.

They really are screwed TBH…

The data overall is quite worrying globally. And if Europe catches a nasty virus the effects will be global. This analysis is generic, not country-specific:

Stagflationary global debt crisis looms – and things will get much worse | Nouriel Roubini

There is ample reason to fear big economies such as the US face recession and financial turmoil

www.theguardian.com

(Personally I am in many ways indifferent to this. I have a mild preference for TSLA to stay low for at least 6-months.)

 

[madodel]

Just saw the annual meeting notice and proxy vote.

Not news, but nice to see:

4. Tesla proposal for adoption of amendments to certificate of incorporation to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock by 4,000,000,000 shares.​

 

[The Accountant]

ALL HANDS ON DECK, ALL HANDS ON DECK

Yesterday, I watched a Fremont flyover video and I wondered to myself,
"will Tesla delivery these cars in time for the quarter-end?"

Then I saw this tweet early this morning:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542344759389237248

 

[JRP3]

I'm very interested to know more on this topic. I thought that there was basically no intervention required by humans in the 4680 process at all? I'm talking about cell production, not pack assembly here. Every video I have seen of the 4680 process has shown robots and automation, without a human hand or face in sight.

Agree, I haven't seen a cell building line with much of any human input.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Probably mostly End-of-Quarter Window-dressing/firesale. But this is a bit of news on the Economy due out in just over an hour:

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch​

THURSDAY, JUNE 30
8:30 am	PCE inflation (monthly)	May		--	0.2%
8:30 am	Core PCE inflation (monthly)	May		0.4%	0.3%
8:30 am	PCE inflation (year-over-year)	May		--	6.3%
8:30 am	Core PCE inflation (year-over-year)	May		4.8%	4.9%
8:30 am	Real disposable income	May		--	0.0%
8:30 am	Real consumer spending	May		--	0.7%
8:30 am	Nominal personal income	May		0.4%	0.4%
8:30 am	Nominal consumer spending	May		0.4%	0.9%
8:30 am	Initial jobless claims	June 25		230,000	229,000
8:30 am	Continuing jobless claims	June 18		--	1.32 million
9:45 am	Chicago PMI	June		58.0	60.3

Itsa Boy! (the Market likes it):



Now let's see if Mr. Market finds something he doesn't like...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[ZachF]

The data overall is quite worrying globally. And if Europe catches a nasty virus the effects will be global. This analysis is generic, not country-specific:

Stagflationary global debt crisis looms – and things will get much worse | Nouriel Roubini

There is ample reason to fear big economies such as the US face recession and financial turmoil

www.theguardian.com

(Personally I am in many ways indifferent to this. I have a mild preference for TSLA to stay low for at least 6-months.)

China has a bursting multi decade property bubble, and is past its demographic peak.

The US is hiking to curb inflation.

Europe looks awful on multiple fronts, and is also entering demographic winter.

That’s ~2/3rds of the world economy right there.

The US/North America is probably the least-worst positioned for what it’s worth.

The good news though is that we have cheap Renewable energy and productivity enhancing tech coming up in the second half of the decade.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This premarket dip was about the ECB saying things the Euro markets didn't like. Plus it's JPMorgan fund rebalancing day, which has killed the market in recent quarters.

I suspect with the relatively good developments in Ukraine, we'll be net green between now and tomorrow.

My prediction for the next TSLA begins Monday! Slow build after p&d then explosion after earnings/guidance.

 

[Knightshade]

So this is odd. The SR+ uses LFP cells while the LR and Performance use 2170s. They would have to be stockpiling LFP cells or perhaps they had a shortage.

At some point this is going to have to swing the other way. I wonder if Tesla is favoring 2170 base cars for a bit to boost margins and will have a surge of LFP shipments in early Q3 when they are less worried about hitting numbers.

Wasn't the plan to move stationary storage to LFP? And Isn't Tesla building a megapack factory in CA right now? Not saying those things are connected, but just off top of my head would be a good use for "extra" LFPs they're not putting in SRs right now in favor of building LRs.

Then I saw this tweet early this morning:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542344759389237248

This one has been another fun litmus test.

With some reading it as:

"Tesla so desperate and incompetent they need the head of design to physically deliver cars instead of hiring actual delivery people"

and some as

"Tesla showing why it's winning, with everyone in the company agile, able, and willing to do anyones job to get that job done"

 

[The Accountant]

Itsa Boy! (the Market likes it):

Now let's see if Mr. Market finds something he doesn't like...

Cheers to the Longs!

Looks like Core PCE has peaked to me . . .we continue to descend the mountain.

As a side note, Accountants love symmetry (debits must equal credits, balance sheets . . .well . .must balance, etc).
That 5.1 in Jan with that 5.2 in Mar . . . .going to bug me all day today.

 

[mongo]

True, but hopefully they didn't commit to the trade with a 1-year target for great returns. If they started investing one year ago they most likely don't have huge amounts of money in the marked and should be glad to get the opportunity buy in more at better prices than before. Yes, it's not the same for everyone, but i find it very weird that i can't find anyone who's glad to see the lower prices for their own sake (despite net worth dropping 40% from the top). Again, price target has only gone up for tesla 2025 the last year (due to ASP's increasing faster than cost prices), so both better fundamentals and lower prices should really be something to celebrate at least for the majority of people who's still buying into the marked.

Regarding lack of enthusiasm at red: Historically, there have been many drops in TSLA of this and similar magnitude. This has led to major real losses by some. Even paper losses have physiological impact. The general tacit agreement that has developed is to be happy internally if you're able to take advantage of it, but not to expect group joy for the color red, nor advocate for it.

To your post: Timeline is irrelevant; at any future point, one is better off if their purchases were at a lower price than a higher. If one values purchasing at a low, then one must also view purchasing above a low (or not selling) as a negative. Your desire to buy at this price vs 2x is the same scenario as someone who bought and then had the stock price drop 50%. You would not be happy with the rise, so why wouldn't they have saddness about the fall? Regardless of the purchases they can now make, the previous ones were sub-optimal (from an omniscient point of view).

 

[Nocturnal]

Stock price is back to where it was in 2021. For some, that was a multimillion rise which evaporated in the last 3 months. Seems hard to expect joy joy feelings about that.

Yup. Whatever funds I can add from my day job are irrelevant compared to paper losses over the past 6 months.

 

[NicoV]

The data overall is quite worrying globally. And if Europe catches a nasty virus the effects will be global. This analysis is generic, not country-specific:

Stagflationary global debt crisis looms – and things will get much worse | Nouriel Roubini

There is ample reason to fear big economies such as the US face recession and financial turmoil

www.theguardian.com

(Personally I am in many ways indifferent to this. I have a mild preference for TSLA to stay low for at least 6-months.)

Much will depend on whether NorthStream1 will resume delivering NG to Germany after the scheduled maintenance shutdown apparently in july. Germany apparently is not counting on that and is shifting energy generation to coal in order to have better NG reserves this winter.
Another factor is that France has half of it’s nuclear power plants shutdown mostly to investigate a corrosion issue (in the non-nuclear cooling iirc). I wouldn’t be surprised if these are started up again if the electricity supply is getting problematic this winter (even without fundamentally resolving the alleged corrosion problems).
I see the following dangers for TSLA:
- very high electricity prices may slow down demand for EVs
- electricity rationing may even slow down demand more
- NG rationing in Germany may impact production at Tesla Germany
I do think that the European governments are not counting on Russian natural gas anymore, and are buying supply (mostly LNG) all over the world, thus causing high natural gas prices all over the world. But Europe is a rich continent, and can afford this better than poorer countries.
But to quote Stuart Little: every cloud has a silver lining. There has never been a more financially sound reason to invest in carbon free energy generation than the current electricity pricing. And driving an EV is still cheaper than driving an ICE car.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

(esp when portfolio is already down 40+%).

That's funny, mine is up over 800%. Not haha funny.

 

[oldTAVguy]

This premarket dip was about the ECB saying things the Euro markets didn't like. Plus it's JPMorgan fund rebalancing day, which has killed the market in recent quarters.

I suspect with the relatively good developments in Ukraine, we'll be net green between now and tomorrow.

My prediction for the next TSLA begins Monday! Slow build after p&d then explosion after earnings/guidance.

Or maybe Tuesday (July 5th).

 

[elasalle]

Just

Me thinks that Elon/Tesla have been sandbagging things lately. Everybody, this forum included, expects The end of the world and gloom.

I expect a positive surprise. I am often a minority.

after Q1 conf calls, Tesla has made no further comments on Q2 numbers.
So no sandbagging here, just markets/individuals guesstimating ...

What if Tesla releases numbers tomorrow morning ... mayhem on options expiry day
(The always have a disclaimer on accuracy ...)

 

[scaesare]

Thanks, yeah, just another screw up by Nikola. They need to raise a ton of cash and they've already allocated so many shares, they have to go back and get more authorized. This should have been done when the stock price was $50, not when it's $5! The much abused shareholders may not be in a mood to vote for this.

Odd for, as the article describes them, "a global leader in zero-emissions transportation and energy infrastructure solutions" to have to do that...

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542209230215815170

Tesla loves Easter Eggs and hiding things in plain sight (Tesla Tequila). Even though the video was about the Supercharger at the raceway it shows the Tesla Semi delivering the chargers. How cool would it be if we get a major Semi announcement on the Q2 shareholders meeting?

 

[henchman24]

Thus far... we have a showing of strength in a gap down day.

 

[BornToFly]

Thus far... we have a showing of strength in a gap down day.

Yes but..., in the past TSLA eventually gets pulled down/fades by the end of the trading day if NASDAQ stays deeply Red....

 

[maxdrive10]

Wasn't the plan to move stationary storage to LFP? And Isn't Tesla building a megapack factory in CA right now? Not saying those things are connected, but just off top of my head would be a good use for "extra" LFPs they're not putting in SRs right now in favor of building LRs.







This one has been another fun litmus test.

With some reading it as:

"Tesla so desperate and incompetent they need the head of design to physically deliver cars instead of hiring actual delivery people"

and some as

"Tesla showing why it's winning, with everyone in the company agile, able, and willing to do anyones job to get that job

Hey he’s supposed to be in the office now!