No way, Jose!!!So hysterical. By the middle means by 2025. So GM has a little less then 2.5 years to catch up.
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No way, Jose!!!So hysterical. By the middle means by 2025. So GM has a little less then 2.5 years to catch up.
I always show people this picture when they claim that CO2 doesn't matter, or "it's actually good because more plants grow!". (in the Cretaceous period CO2 levels were about 4-5x what they are today)It’s true. Atmospheric CO2 market share essentially peaked at 4,000 parts per million in the Cambrian Period and we believe it’s unlikely to reach those levels ever again due to strong competition from plants.
Final update - now with Rob Maurer's numbers:
View attachment 830399
Giga Berlin has a lot more land than Giga Shanghai, and it appears that much of it is already cleared and leveled for construction.Tesla has expanded Shanghai footprint to accommodate all the extra unit growth (Shanghai factory is far larger today than it was when the first model 3 rolled out). Is there any sign that Berlin is preparing to imminently build another similar size structure to accommodate a doubling of capacity by mid-2024?
I'll try to put something together tomorrow before earnings are released.I wish there was a table like this for estimates for Automotive Gross Margin Excluding Regulatory Credits. I expect it to increase from 30.0% in Q1 to 31.1% in Q2 despite Giga Shanghai shutdowns and two new factories. It seems everybody else disagrees but I have to go with what my calculation shows.
The first 12-month period in which Shanghai produced ~500k cars was from Jan ‘21 thru Dec ‘21. This was roughly their second year of production, roughly corresponding to Jul ‘23 thru Jun ‘24 for B&A’s timeline.
Over 2021, Shanghai’s production rate grew a staggering 2.69x from 25k in Jan to 67k in Dec, leaving them with a 0.8M annualized run rate at the end. If B&A followed the same timeline, they’d hit that 0.8M rate by Apr ‘24 while still growing at a healthy pace, which puts overall ‘24 production at around 1M for each factory.
That’s still assuming B&A don’t ramp substantially faster than Shanghai did, so it’s conservative if anything.
I don't but I will consider it.@The Accountant Do you keep any of this on a public view-only file like Google Sheets? I think a lot of people in the community would like that.
@The Accountant Do you keep any of this on a public view-only file like Google Sheets? I think a lot of people in the community would like that.
I didn't know that and that's somewhat disappointing. I'd still expect the expansion phases of construction to move more quickly than the initial plant.Troy's comment about Giga Berlin from his patreon:
"In the past, I used to hear about plans to add mirror buildings to the Giga Berlin site that would double or triple the current 500K/year capacity. However, those plans seem to be scrapped now." (updated in june)
The additional portions of Giga Shanghai ramped production drastically faster than the initial factory. That's why the overall Tesla China production rate almost tripled in 2021.Giga Berlin's current factory has been built to support a production rate of 500K vehicles annually. Lets say they will over-deliver on this target and they manage to push 600-750K out of this factory, then we still have some problems when 2024 comes if we're reaching for a million. They haven't started production of their next building/factory in berlin yet, and even if they started now it would take a couple of years before we could expect high volume from it.
Tesla started building their current factory in berlin july 1st 2020, and now 2-years later we're at 1000-vehicles weekly run rate and we're probably 8-10 months away from having produced 200K vehicles. So in this case it will take them around 3 years from starting the production of the factory to producing 200K vehicles. If we lower this to half the time (1,5 years), we still wouldn't get 200K production from this building in 2024 unless they would have started a month ago.
The additional portions of Giga Shanghai ramped production drastically faster than the initial factory. That's why the overall Tesla China production rate almost tripled in 2021.
The holdup at Berlin right now seems to be a mix of supply shortages, training local personnel, working on the new paint shop, and other stuff with the new production techniques. Simply installing new lines at the same site is a lot easier. Local German (and Polish) workers from the first plant can directly help train the new workers for the expansions.
Also, recall that Berlin was ready to start low-rate initial production and had to wait idle for 6 months for the government to finish all the approvals. Actual construction of the first factory building began in May '20 and was completed in Oct '21, for 18 months of flow time. If Tesla started expansion construction in perhaps Sep '22 and did the job in 15 months this time, the factory would be completed by the end of 2023.
Yeah, it would be a serious accomplishment. Likewise, if I don't hear in the coming months about imminent pouring of concrete in Brandenburg I'll revise my Berlin estimates for 2024 downward.Well, if tesla can add more than 500K production in a year in texas i'll surely take my hats off to Elon once again. I've adjusted my deliveries from both berlin and texas slightly higher, but i'm still crossing my fingers that we'll start seeing some new factory announcements soon so 50% compound growth will look somewhat easier to achieve form 2025 and outwards.
You're assuming I'm only basing my opinion on lawsuits. I'm basing my opinion on the urgency which Elon embraces the mission and how the German bureaucracy makes urgency impossible. The The German Bureaucracy and the pace which Elon wants to move are incompatible.Your extended analitical level of thinking from all angles is truly amazing. Apprently you assumed that lawsuits just don't happen anywhrere else omiting all positive aspects of getting factory near Berlin.
This forum is just priceless.
Look, I am surprised you are trying to make a case out of it.You're assuming I'm only basing my opinion on lawsuits. I'm basing my opinion on the urgency which Elon embraces the mission and how the German bureaucracy makes urgency impossible. The The German Bureaucracy and the pace which Elon wants to move are incompatible.
I wish there was a table like this for estimates for Automotive Gross Margin Excluding Regulatory Credits. I expect it to increase from 30.0% in Q1 to 31.1% in Q2 despite Giga Shanghai shutdowns and two new factories. It seems everybody else disagrees but I have to go with what my calculation shows.
I have shares in 5 different accounts, it had an option to upload 1 file. I suppose I could have spent time with screenshots of multiple accounts and combined them into one file but it said it was optional. I'm not sure how they will attempt to verify since I didn't upload anything.You can just upload a statement to confirm your share count.
Tesla and German Bureaucracy are no longer complete strangers.You're assuming I'm only basing my opinion on lawsuits. I'm basing my opinion on the urgency which Elon embraces the mission and how the German bureaucracy makes urgency impossible. The The German Bureaucracy and the pace which Elon wants to move are incompatible.