Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DarthPierce]

As already posted: IBKR has located shares you can short since today. "Only" 10% interest on them. Also you can buy one of the puts or sell one of the calls in a very illiquid option-market...

More interesting: Will shorting TSLQ reduce the "concentration in 1 stock"-penalty on margin at the broker of your choice? ..
I mean .. everyone always tells me to diversify..

I don't understand how this 1x inverted fund is supposed to work.

TSLA up 10% -> TSLQ down 10% ok....
TSLA up 50% -> TSLQ down 50% hmm
TSLA up 100% -> TSLQ down 100% wait wut? It's worth 0....
TSLA up 200% -> TSLQ down 200% WTFBBQ‽ it's worth negative money now?

I legit don't understand how this is supposed to work. Do people buying this ETF have to be accredited, margin using, level 3 options traders or do they just have this level of risk without being aware? I *almost* feel bad feel bad for these "investors"

 

[Krugerrand]

What does mom think about today's move? More upside or bear trap?

Mom has been mum on SP for quite some time. I may have hurt her feelings when I last berated her of being a wee bit off on timing, or the new medication interferes with her ability to talk to the spirit world. ‍

 

[Singuy]

I don't understand how this 1x inverted fund is supposed to work.

TSLA up 10% -> TSLQ down 10% ok....
TSLA up 50% -> TSLQ down 50% hmm
TSLA up 100% -> TSLQ down 100% wait wut? It's worth 0....
TSLA up 200% -> TSLQ down 200% WTFBBQ‽ it's worth negative money now?

I legit don't understand how this is supposed to work. Do people buying this ETF have to be accredited, margin using, level 3 options traders or do they just have this level of risk without being aware? I *almost* feel bad feel bad for these "investors"

Yes, shorting a stock can lose you infinite money. Most people will be margin called way before that happens but then you have hedge funds where their shorts lost control and they end up in bankruptcy like Melvin Capital vs GME.

 

[Electroman]

No idea what Karen is saying...

 

[AudubonB]

That's crazy talk. Tesla still has 25% of their Bitcoin on the books, all of their Dogecoin, and Elon said on the call yesterday they were not against buying more if they thought it would be useful.

Get over it!

You write more responsible posts than irresponsible ones, but there have been enough of the latter that for the first time I'm going to call you out on this particularly inappropriate, annoying and downright rude post. ANY on this or elsewhere who dismiss with "Get over it" anything and everything that a corporation they follow does is thereby demonstrating himself or herself as a dangerous, blinders-on, march-in-lockstep-with-management FOOL who not only cannot be entrusted to manage his/her own money (you're of course welcome to do with your own funds what you will), but to others as well. And that describes you precisely regarding your time and input on this forum.

This is all the more worse because you obviously have some investment smarts - I'll never dismiss you by suggesting otherwise. Yet in all the thousands of posts you have put into here, never once can I remember you admitting to any investment mistake....which I will counsel is a mistake in itself and should be a red flag to others. Let me put that another way: anyone who has not been humbled by some of his investment decisions is a rank novice. Not skilled or unskilled, not lucky - just untempered by the fires of Wall Street.

That said and done with, on to the issue at hand.

Tesla's foray into cryptocurrencies has not, in my very considered opinion, been adequately justified by management. The cringingly best argument is that by doing so, the company was looking to endear itself to a new kind of investor.

That Tesla did so is an understandably divisive move, with both Tesla bulls and bears having strong opinions regarding it. For you to write "Get over it!" is so smarmy, so cringe-worthy on all levels that it brings suspicion everything else you ever did or may write here.

Yes: many of us believe that Tesla Inc. is an automobile manufacturer and an energy provider of manifold permutations, and likewise has no business - business in the strongest sense of the word - with cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet. And for those of us who have been shaking our heads since first learning of it, that 75% of that exposure now is gone is a relief and a very good first step. As one who is in that camp, Mr Musk having said (paraphrasing here) "they were not against buying more if they thought it would be useful" is tantamount to revealing that never again will they repeat this mistake.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think it's worth Tesla thinking about making more S & X, but only if profit is high enough and it doesn't affect more important goals.

I think if the could ratchet it up to say 120,000 annual production, with a few tweaks and duplications, that is worthwhile.

Front and rear castings and a structural battery pack make more sense with a higher volume vehicle perhaps 250,000 per year.
IMO Tesla will eventually need more models, it will be more worthwhile to expend the design resources on totally new models.

• Compact Sedan
• Compact CUV
• Van/Mini van
• Small Cybertruck
• Large Off-Road SUV
• Mid-size Off-Road SUV
• Station Wagon (similar to a Subaru Outback)

The CT already has great off-road specs, but many might prefer a more conventual form factor.

I think most of the Models above should be able to sell north of 250,000 worldwide.

 

[Singuy]

No idea what Karen is saying...

View attachment 831255

Seems like a stupid story about an executive was let go for ordering glass for Elon....

Musk Lieutenant Scrutinized in Internal Tesla Purchasing Probe

www.bloomberg.com

 

[JRP3]

No idea what Karen is saying...

View attachment 831255

It seems quite clear what she's saying. Don't know if it's accurate or not.

 

[LodiEVFan]

Trust me, I'm still as grumpy as ever. Don't expect a change in grumpiness until we hit 1,200 minimum.

Grumpiness level slightly less than it was before earnings simply because Tesla did away with it's Bitcoin (for the most part) and thus I don't have to hear the complaining and whining about it. I was impartial to it.....but dear god I was tired of hearing it talked about.

StarFoxisDown, your feelings regarding the discussion of Bitcoin here mirror mine related to G. Johnson's absurdity.

 

[betstarship]

Interesting thing I found:

If you sum the net % change of share price between P&D report -> Earnings per quarter when Tesla was reporting increases in min installed capacity (between Q3 / 2019 -> Q4 / 2020):

+182.20

If you sum the net % change of share price between P&D report -> Earnings when Tesla was reporting no increases in min installed capacity (Between Q1 / 2021 -> Q1 / 2022):

-31.48

Now that the first day after Q2 / 2022 earnings is over, again it's back to a positive net change while min installed capacity increased:

+16.58

Edit: I added the ASP chart because I was going to note that any time when ASP increased/decreased q-o-q, I summed the net % change between P&D -> Earnings...they're largely the same total between all the quarters.

 

[MikeC]

No idea what Karen is saying...

View attachment 831255

Is the concern that he was going to get the glass for free at Tesla’s expense, or that he is not allowed to obtain this particular type of glass for personal use?

I don't understand how this 1x inverted fund is supposed to work.

TSLA up 10% -> TSLQ down 10% ok....
TSLA up 50% -> TSLQ down 50% hmm
TSLA up 100% -> TSLQ down 100% wait wut? It's worth 0....
TSLA up 200% -> TSLQ down 200% WTFBBQ‽ it's worth negative money now?

I legit don't understand how this is supposed to work. Do people buying this ETF have to be accredited, margin using, level 3 options traders or do they just have this level of risk without being aware? I *almost* feel bad feel bad for these "investors"

I bought a few puts on it. What it seems to do is mirror the percentage gain each day - so if TSLA doubled in a day maybe it would go to zero.

For example, if TSLA increased 10% every day, it should decrease 10% every day. Which would mean an increasing large dollar value for each additional 10% increase in TSLA is matched by a corresponding decrease in absolute value loss for each incremental 10% decrease in TSLQ:

TSLA: 800 -> 880 -> 968 -> 1064.8 -> 1171 -> 1288
TSLQ: 40 -> 36 -> 32.8 -> 29.6 -> 26.5 -> 23.9

Trying to figure the implications for options, it seems like it would be harder to reach farther out put strikes on the down side than to reach corresponding TSLA calls on the upside because of this. Maybe the management fees balance that.

 

[Acroyear]

Robert Scoble interview:

Nice discussion of AI, Bot and FSD.

I’d be leery about putting any faith in what Scoble has to say about anything. He was one of the biggest Glassholes:

 

[betstarship]

Another super interesting chart:

- IC vs Actual Difference 3/Y = (Minimum installed capacity for quarter - run-rate for quarter) / run-rate for quarter
- % change P&D -> Earnings = (share price day-after quarterly earnings report − share price day-after quarterly P&D report) / share price day-after quarterly P&D report

When Tesla was catching up deliveries to its minimum installed capacity at 950,000 cars (thus improving "efficiency" of their available machinery from what I gather), the share price barely nudged between P&D report to earnings if you summate across all those quarters. Maybe Wall Street / traders knew the numbers of what Tesla could report during that time period?

Before that, the installed capacity was increasing because the ramp was occurring for Shanghai. It might lend itself that another ramp is occurring here in the next 6 months as Giga Texas and Giga Berlin ramp too. Dunno.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I don't understand how this 1x inverted fund is supposed to work.

TSLA up 10% -> TSLQ down 10% ok....
TSLA up 50% -> TSLQ down 50% hmm
TSLA up 100% -> TSLQ down 100% wait wut? It's worth 0....
TSLA up 200% -> TSLQ down 200% WTFBBQ‽ it's worth negative money now?

I legit don't understand how this is supposed to work. Do people buying this ETF have to be accredited, margin using, level 3 options traders or do they just have this level of risk without being aware? I *almost* feel bad feel bad for these "investors"

Leveraged ETF's, whether correlated or inverse, at a value of 1x, 2x, or 3x (or sometimes even higher!), are financially very complicated instruments. I don't pretend that I or anyone else really understands how they work but their track records for solvency are abysmal. Most of the time, whenever I've seen a stock have a sudden move, the leveraged ETF is wiped out and anyone who holds them loses 100% instantly. They are supposed to only be for day trading or so the story goes. If you hold one even overnight you're just gambling your "investment" goes to zero instantly.

 

[insaneoctane]

Cannot celebrate yet since I made a bet with a friend for a nice dinner if at the end of 2022 SP exceeds 50 perc of Dec 30 2021 closing (1000 + 50 per = 1500). But, looking more hopefull!

Good thing you're not getting ahead of yourself
I am rooting for you though!

 

[brantse]

I don't understand how this 1x inverted fund is supposed to work.

TSLA up 10% -> TSLQ down 10% ok....
TSLA up 50% -> TSLQ down 50% hmm
TSLA up 100% -> TSLQ down 100% wait wut? It's worth 0....
TSLA up 200% -> TSLQ down 200% WTFBBQ‽ it's worth negative money now?

I legit don't understand how this is supposed to work. Do people buying this ETF have to be accredited, margin using, level 3 options traders or do they just have this level of risk without being aware? I *almost* feel bad feel bad for these "investors"

Compounding percentages don't really work that way. Each incremental percentage drop is smaller than the previous.

 

[CaliBear1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549870045383331843

@ZeApelido all yours ....

Shiny, happy...bear trap.

 

[Boomer19]

I don't understand how this 1x inverted fund is supposed to work.

TSLA up 10% -> TSLQ down 10% ok....
TSLA up 50% -> TSLQ down 50% hmm
TSLA up 100% -> TSLQ down 100% wait wut? It's worth 0....
TSLA up 200% -> TSLQ down 200% WTFBBQ‽ it's worth negative money now?

I legit don't understand how this is supposed to work. Do people buying this ETF have to be accredited, margin using, level 3 options traders or do they just have this level of risk without being aware? I *almost* feel bad feel bad for these "investors"

all these crazy inverse etfs are garbage designed to take money from the hands of fools who buy them. pure sucker bait.

every one of them is heavily shorted into the ground by pros and funds and then whaaalaa, a reverse split back to higher levels to restart the whole process. it’s been going on for years.
so short-term-short yes, buy…not so much.

the more tslaq blasted into oblivion the better as far as i’m concerned. they’re animals anyway so let them lose their souls.

PS - you guys think starfox is grumpy…i’m so bent out of shape i haven’t even bothered to interact here in months!

wake me back up when we’re at either 550 or 1250.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

You write more responsible posts than irresponsible ones, but there have been enough of the latter that for the first time I'm going to call you out on this particularly inappropriate, annoying and downright rude post. ANY on this or elsewhere who dismiss with "Get over it" anything and everything that a corporation they follow does is thereby demonstrating himself or herself as a dangerous, blinders-on, march-in-lockstep-with-management FOOL who not only cannot be entrusted to manage his/her own money (you're of course welcome to do with it what you will), but to others as well. And that describes you precisely regarding your time and input on this forum.

This is all the more worse because you obviously have some investment smarts - I'll never dismiss you by suggesting otherwise. Yet in all the thousands of posts you have put into here, never once can I remember you admitting to any invesmtent mistake....which I will counsel is a mistake in itself and should be a red flag to others. Let me put that another way: anyone who has not been humbled by some of his investment decisions is a rank novice. Not skilled or unskilled, not lucky - just untempered by the fires of Wall Street.

That said and done with, on to the issue at hand.

Tesla's foray into cryptocurrencies has not, in my very considered opinion, been adequately justified by management. The cringingly best argument is that by doing so, the company was looking to endear itself to a new kind of investor.

That Tesla did so is an understandably divisive move, with both Tesla bulls and bears have strong opinions regarding it. For you to write "Get over it!" is so smarmy, so cringe-worthy on all levels that it brings suspicion everything else you ever did or may write here.

Yes: many of us who believe that Tesla Inc. is an automobile manufacturer and an energy provider of manifold permutations, and likewise has no business - business in the strongest sense of the word - with cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet. And for those of us who have been shaking our heads since first learning of it, that 75% of that exposure now is gone is a relief and a very good first step. As one who is in that camp, Mr Musk having said (paraphrasing here) "they were not against buying more if they thought it would be useful" is tantamount to revealing that never again will they repeat this mistake.

This sounds like a rant that the mods would delete. Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

[insaneoctane]

Ford to buy cheaper CATL EV batteries to catch Tesla

Ford to buy cheaper CATL EV batteries to catch Tesla

Ford Motor Co on Thursday said it will import lower-cost lithium iron batteries for its North American electric pickup trucks and SUVs from Chinese battery champion CATL , as it works on a broader alliance with CATL and an array of separate deals to secure battery and battery materials into the...

www.reuters.com

"Ford said it has now sourced about 70% of the battery capacity it needs to support its goal of building more than 2 million EVs worldwide by late 2026."

"Ford's decision to use CATL's lithium iron phosphate batteries for the Mustang Mach-E starting next year, and the F-150 Lightning in 2024, marks a significant win for the Chinese battery maker, and a shift in U.S. marketing strategy for Ford. ..(Lithium-iron batteries typically deliver less driving range than comparable batteries that use nickel and cobalt, and until recently, automakers had stuck with more expensive nickel-cobalt chemistries for the U.S. market, where longer driving range is a key competitive measure.)"

"Ford said it is aiming for 8% pretax profit margins on its EVs by 2026. The company has said its EV business currently is not profitable. Even an 8% margin would be short of the 14.6% operating margin Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) reported Wednesday for the second quarter."

So the F-150 Lightning weighs 6,590 pounds using nickel batteries and Ford is changing that to iron....is their goal to weigh as much as the Hummer OR are they trying to make sure it wins in the tug-of-war against the CT?

In case you missed it, IIRC the heavier the vehicle, the greater the available tire friction and, thus, the likely winner of a tug-of-war regardless of torque and horsepower.