Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

GM’s Cruise Robotaxi business has lost $5 billion since 2018

General Motors' Cruise is one of the first companies to offer a robotaxi service. But its losses have been very substantial.

www.teslarati.com

All of a sudden, scalability doesn’t seem like such a good idea.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Sort of the hallmark of a good composite material. Ideally a composite should act and function like a single piece once it's been completed. Ever try separating a piece of plywood into the strips of wood that it's composed of? To some degree, same thing going on here. It's no longer a bunch of batteries in a giant container, to any outside forces acting on it, it's one single piece.

I wonder how that pink adhesive reacts to a solvent like acetone.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Personally, I think it is this. They have a nice steady rate of cars coming off lease now and probably don't need more sitting around for the limited amount of sales staff that needs to focus on selling new cars.

FYI, the Tesla App now manages the entire used vehicle sale, including insurance, trade in, registration, financing, scheduling, final payment, and docs. It had a few glitches still as it's "so new" per Tesla (spouse linking for approvals not working at first (the App not the spouse). I think the used car salesperson, the used car lot, the sales office, those commissions and haggling, the warrantee bonus offers and service add ons... all just vaporized. Yay to that!

Maybe I should make it a rental unit and save FSD for the Tesla Network. It's an easy decline on their offer as KBB trade-in shows $47K no FSD. Tesla stated that they take these used one's to original factory condition, including removing wraps, tinting etc. So maybe lots of prep going in to a higher quality used standard. I think we are to assume they are all identical and only differ by miles pretty much. We can't view the car until ready to sign tomorrow, just wow, what a trip!

 

[mongo]

Actually somewhere around 7/8 of the video (recommend running it at 2X w/ captions ON ) - Sandy mentions it is either 816 ( 36x4 x 4 ) or 828.

Edit: since I screenshotted it it is at the 10:24 mark

View attachment 833409

Right, and since there is ambiguity, they don't 'know' which was @Artful Dodger's point.
Given they went to Texas and saw the blown apart pack display (with 828), I'm really starting to think Cory is intentionally saying incorrect things to get more video comments / Tweet engagements. Last time it was that the cells would be upside down. Offshoot of Cunningham's Law.

(816 would be 34x6x4, design is staggered groups of (34+35)*3*4 = 828)

 

[elasalle]

Partly OT... $41,850 trade-in offer on our Model 3 LR. Is Tesla Low balling us, it has FSD.

It's a 2018 Model 3 LR RWD, 31K mi, and they said it "includes value for FSD" but nothing is broken out. There is a tax advantage bc we'd only pay taxes on the difference, so maybe this is like $45K equivalent trade-in value. My aluminum wheels are scuffed but could be refinished, rear interior door panel ripped 3/4" near bottom, not original orange top glass, but that's it and all fully disclosed with zero body damage.

So similar to the Service discussions here recently, I think Tesla's is also making some (small) coin in their own Used Auto market. Maybe it's more of a convenience to help the sale a new one. But why make this difficult? Clear title, we could sell this over the weekend, but dog hair's gonna be a pain to clean. Or could it be they have too many vehicles and don't want mine?

I think so. Tip I got from adviser a few weeks back is to try VW dealer etc ... seems they give more $$.
Also, the interest rate offered for purchase/lease looks like more than market average. cheers!!

My X (Penny Picker) Order has been activated so hope to be a FSD Beta tester soon

 

[SOULPEDL]

I wonder how that pink adhesive reacts to a solvent like acetone.

How many Engineers it takes to remove the batteries?
420 I thought, but more like 2x that = 840. (One for each battery + management and youtube R&D work.)

 

[AudubonB]

The Tesla Decade

A 90 page analyst report on investing in Tesla Stock.

Eric Markowitz | Director of Research, Partner, Worm Capital
Cameron Tierney | Research Analyst, Worm Capital
April 18, 2022
Worm Capital web site

I have not read it yet. But here is a quote from the report:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It’s still early days…
• Our multi-year research effort into Tesla’s manufacturing capabilities and
supply chain integrations suggest that Tesla is more than 6 years ahead of any
competitor. This lead is expanding.
• The company has massive scale today, which in our view will likely compound
at significant rates going forward—and outpace current consensus
expectations by a wide margin.
• We believe that many market participants do not yet grasp the extensive data,
software, manufacturing, and AI advantage that Tesla enjoys.
• Overall sell-side estimates of Tesla’s growth are, in our view, are extremely low.

A recipe for an epic redistribution of wealth.
7

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13F shows Worm has $445M (66% of portfolio value) invested in Tesla calls and shares.

Dang - that is impressive.

Just as impressive is how Worm managed to distill this thread into just 90 pages. Well done!

 

[Singuy]

Tactics of Trevor Milton, just keep talking about Tesla and your stocks will go up.

Jim Cramer Says Ford Stock Could Jump To $15 On Earnings If Tesla Is Mentioned: Here's Why - Ford Motor (NYSE:F)

Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) is scheduled to report earnings this week and Jim Cramer believes the stock is positioned to jump significantly higher on the back of management commentary.

www.benzinga.com

 

[CLK350]

Right, and since there is ambiguity, they don't 'know' which was @Artful Dodger's point.
Given they went to Texas and saw the blown apart pack display (with 828), I'm really starting to think Cory is intentionally saying incorrect things to get more video comments / Tweet engagements. Last time it was that the cells would be upside down. Offshoot of Cunningham's Law.

(816 would be 34x6x4, design is staggered groups of (34+35)*3*4 = 828)

Curious as to why you would think a difference of 12 cells, aka 1.5% is material for any reason?

 

[SOULPEDL]

What's the reason for trading it in?

Too much work to maintain two Tesla's! /s

No, since the accident months ago, we've been sharing the 3 and it's just fine. But I'd like some utility until Cybertruck arrives.
Batteries sitting unused is like time-value of an option, plus the guilt off excessive consumption. But a rental maybe.

 

[betstarship]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552353316952227842

 

[Mengy]

Fed raising rates by 75 bps. There it is.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552353144620945410

 

[ZachF]

Probably a bit early to say that right now, but signs are still there of strength in the economy. If tomorrow brings positive GDP numbers at all... this market will rip big time.

Ironically, a much stronger than expected GDP print would probably cause the market to drop as it would mean the fed has more headroom to raise rates

The most likely outcome for Q2 is a small decline in GDP.

 

[mongo]

Curious as to why you would think a difference of 12 cells, aka 1.5% is material for any reason?

Sorry if I implied materiality, not my intent.
34x6 doesn't work since that would result in a 136s6p pack at > 500 Volts.
(34+35)*3 works out to a 92s9p 380V pack.

 

[Singuy]

Ironically, a much stronger than expected GDP print would probably cause the market to drop as it would mean the fed has more headroom to raise rates

We know GDP is not going to be overly positive if it is positive. So the fed isn't going to go crazy even with a positive GDP number.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Fed Raises Rates by 75 Basis Points to Double Down on Inflation Bloomberg.com The FOMC vote, which included two new members -- Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr and Boston Fed President Susan Collins -- was unanimous. Barr's... 5 mins ago

 

[SOULPEDL]

Right, and since there is ambiguity, they don't 'know' which was @Artful Dodger's point.
Given they went to Texas and saw the blown apart pack display (with 828), I'm really starting to think Cory is intentionally saying incorrect things to get more video comments / Tweet engagements. Last time it was that the cells would be upside down. Offshoot of Cunningham's Law.

(816 would be 34x6x4, design is staggered groups of (34+35)*3*4 = 828)

To think each battery is selling for $800, no wonder they're taking so long to remove them carefully. That's $662K in potential value just for the batteries.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Partly OT... $41,850 trade-in offer on our Model 3 LR. Is Tesla Low balling us, it has FSD.

It's a 2018 Model 3 LR RWD, 31K mi, and they said it "includes value for FSD" but nothing is broken out. There is a tax advantage bc we'd only pay taxes on the difference, so maybe this is like $45K equivalent trade-in value. My aluminum wheels are scuffed but could be refinished, rear interior door panel ripped 3/4" near bottom, not original orange top glass, but that's it and all fully disclosed with zero body damage.

So similar to the Service discussions here recently, I think Tesla's is also making some (small) coin in their own Used Auto market. Maybe it's more of a convenience to help the sale a new one. But why make this difficult? Clear title, we could sell this over the weekend, but dog hair's gonna be a pain to clean. Or could it be they have too many vehicles and don't want mine?

Tesla has been known for years to lowball trade-in offers. It's the price you pay for convenience. If you don't like it, you can sell third party using Carmax or Carvana. Keep in mind that some states only charge sales tax on the net cost of a car, so say if you traded that car in for $41k and the new car is $60k, you only pay sales tax on $19k net cost in some states. Depending on what you get offered third party, this might completely negate the additional money you would get selling it yourself and so it's worth it to take the trade-in offer and pay less sales tax.

 

[Ogre]

I wonder how that pink adhesive reacts to a solvent like acetone.

Fill the cavity with a solvent, what does that do to the cells? Is the solvent conductive? What happens when you fill a battery pack with a fluid of unknown conductivity?

When Tesla recycles the pack, they likely won't care that the components are destroyed or compromised because they are trying to get the raw materials out of it. Sandy needs to recover components which they can analyze (and sell! LOL).

Pack might be easy to break down if you are recycling, but you have to be a lot more cautious if you are trying to salvage working bits from it.

 

[jerry33]

Wow, the R&D gap is that large? It's astonishing that GM would spend so little on R&D.

Not surprised. Their suppliers do all the R&D. GM just does assembly for the most part.