Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[loquitur]

As discussed that is all based on the old BBB bill that is dead. The text hasn't gotten replaced with the current proposal.

Now acknowledging -- I guess he has to revise it yet again, or just wait for the handwritten (?) markups to be
subject to the Senate vote-a-rama within a week.

 

[Dutchie]

Usually I am pretty bad at timing but I had to sell some from the education plan because I had to pay tuition for my daughter’s university. Sold it yesterday at the highest point of the week. Feel very lucky today.

 

[Zythryn]

Ok...$TSLA down 5.5% today based on what?

1. Elon too giddy at shareholder's meeting
2. New giga factory announcement
3. Stock split approved
4. 2M run rate by end of 2022
5. 100M vehicles by 2032
6. 10-12 Giga factories
7. Solving real world AI
8. Optimus disrupting the economy

It is none of the above....hours of digging and research yielded the real reason for the drop. You're welcome!

Elon implying he is still distracted with Twitter or another similar product?

 

[Doit]

I figured out why it's down more than $50: demand problem! In fact, there're so many Teslas ready to dump to ocean I dare not to count /s

 

[elasalle]

I figured out why it's down more than $50: demand problem! In fact, there're so many Teslas ready to dump to ocean I dare not to count /s

This is Ship#8 for Q3, on par with total # of ships for whole of Q2. cheers!!

 

[Cobbler]

I saw this one driving yesterday on the E17 - Belgium, headed to France?
Dutch license plate for the trailer. Maybe Model Y cars unloaded from Zeebrugge/Shangai?

 

[jw934]

The TWTR stuff struck me as being flippin huge. I can't find the source, but somewhere out there, I think in an interview, Elon discussed X.com and the direction it was being taken, different than what he envisioned. He suggested that X.com could have been the largest player in financial transactions.

Paypal. Visa, apple pay, all of it rolled into one.

Anyone find the link?

Yes, Elon's description of possible future plans for Twitter during the 2022 AGM is his hope of what Paypal could have been, before he was ousted. I recall hearing Elon telling this story on multiple occasions in varying amount of detail.

I see many on Twitter are concerned that today's $60 drop could be Elon selling more shares to have fund to buy $TWTR given his comments last night, and afraid that we can see further drop. I doubt it because the volume is normal.

Here it one clip from a 2008 interview - - 26 seconds in.

Elon -
I want to do something more on the internet and it seemed to me that they hadn't been all that much innovation in the financial sector
and given that money is kind of a just an entry in a database and it was low bandwidth he said it didn't require some big infrastructure upgrade to the Internet it seemed it should lend itself to innovation

so try to think of what could be you know what were something compelling it could be done I thought well if we can combine all all types of financial services in one so you have like the mortgages or like basically all your your entire financial relationship seamlessly integrated together in one place online that would be cool

and then there was a little feature that just seemed like an obvious feature which was ability to transfer money from one person to another but by entering unique identifiers like a email address

A interview with Max Chafkin. From the 2008 Inc. 5000 conference.

Spoiler: Entire transcript

Max: I was hoping you could sort of share with us kind of what
your vision was from the beginning?

Elon: Well it certainly evolved over time initially the eyesomething more on the internet
well after slings up

I want to do something more on the internet and it
seemed to me that they hadn't been all that much innovation in the financial
sector

and given that money is kind of a just an entry in a database and it was
low bandwidth he said it wouldn't didn't require some big infrastructure upgrade
to the Internet it seemed it should lend itself to innovation so try to think of
what could be you know what were something compelling it could be done

and I thought well if we can combine all all types of financial services in one
so you have like the mortgages or like basically all your your entire financial
relationship seamlessly integrated together in one place online that would be cool

and then there was a little feature that just seemed like an obvious
feature which was ability to transfer money from one person to another but by
entering unique identifiers like a email address there was like this is sort of a little feature

but then whenever we demonstrate the product people wouldn't
get excited about the consolidated financial services but they would get
excited about emailing money so he's sort of focusing on our energy on that
and that really ended up being the big driver of growth

right so it sort of went from a super bank I think that's what the media call yeah like a super
financial services thing yeah - to really narrowly focusing on email payments

so although I should point out that actually a lot of people aren't
aware that a lot of success of PayPal is due to the underlying financial services
that are there such as the money market fund which is one of the highest
yielding in fact I think the highest yielding in the country

and the fact
that there's a PayPal debit card that's which operates off the MasterCard system
so you can you have it you can buy things you know buy things in the real
world and get cash from an ATM that directly taps into your in to PayPal
account those are actually very important to the papers model right sue

 

[TheTalkingMule]

10yr treasuries hitting a 4 month low. WTI down 5% to $94.

I would looooove to see two really tough US crude supply reports the next two Wednesdays and cap it off with a calm CPI report on the 10th.

We have a real good chance to put this inflation peak behind us the next couple weeks. July showed real world price declines, the numbers should reflect that next Wednesday.

Onward and upward!

I think we're on a pretty nice path for this outcome. Inflation is the Fed's laser focus.

We have nice downward pressure on crude oil this week and no reason to believe that won't continue as domestic US supplies keep building.

The faith component of this is will CPI follow what our eyes showed us in July. All went well this week, 3 more trading days til all days points are in.

I'm sure MM's(and the press) will try to paint any CPI poorly, but my guess is we have a clear as day peak inflation become evident. Then we find out if MM's can hold off the buying until all the Wall Street dbags get back from the Hamptons.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think we're kinda saying the same thing actually. Hedge funds/MM's have the data to see where stop loss orders are. They know if they naked short enough, they can drop the stock to hit those levels. So I'd agree that there's probably some day traders from the past 1-2 weeks that are being closed out. But the vast majority of the volume is coming from naked shorting to force those stop losses.

I really doubt there is significant naked shorting right now considering the market makers know the time for making good on those short sales is very slim. Maybe a little naked shorting at strategic moments that are quickly covered as the fear frees up shares but probably not a growth in large net short positions.

I think the volume is due to back and forth trading by manipulators to walk the price down while drowning out the impact of real trading. Just business as usual for options friday after a bull run. Monday morning we'll probably see a jump before the manipulators jump in and cap it with more back and forth trading.

 

[damonbrodie]

I just read a "fool"ish article about why TSLA is down today. One of the reasons stated is that the next vehicle plant will require either debt or an equity raise. How did Austin and Berlin get financed?

 

[Cobbler]

Something to cheer us up during these red days

 

[henchman24]

I just read a "fool"ish article about why TSLA is down today. One of the reasons stated is that the next vehicle plant will require either debt or an equity raise. How did Austin and Berlin get financed?

You could argue equity raises... IIRC $5b each in Sept 2020 and Dec 2020. Doesn't mean TSLA will here now... a buyback is much more likely than a raise IMO.

 

[StealthP3D]

Maybe, but using his and your suggested math...
12K/yr * (12 - 15 yr) = 144K - 180K. So using "average" numbers with what Elon shared last night are significantly below what I expect....easily by a factor of 2x or 3x.

It's likely that Tesla sales of cars sold 12 years and more ago are cars sold to older people that are relatively well off and have much lower annual mileage than the average drivers. Elon wasn't trying to be super analytical here, he was simply making the point that recycling volumes are very low at the moment and will generally ramp with the sales of new vehicles minus 12-15 years. There is no point in trying to match the early recycling volumes with sales over a decade ago because there are too many variables in terms of totaled vehicles, re-purposed packs, batteries being sent to other recycling facilities like Redwood Materials, etc, etc, etc. Trying to make sense of the rough numbers Elon shared is an exercise in futility due to all these unknown variables.

People shouldn't try to extract precise meaning from data that is so incomplete unless they want erroneous conclusions.

 

[bkp_duke]

Impressive bear raid. 9X the Nasdaq on nothing but good news.

And that's how the sausage is made, apparently.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why is premarket so unhappy??

What do ya go? (that'll do).

 

[StealthP3D]

We've discussed this many times here. There are very real impacts from splits when it comes to naked shorting. Mainly because the stock split requires that all shares be accounted for.

Seeing how you have been here since 2019, you should know that. And it's not like it's speculation. It was very obvious during the last split for TSLA

True, but it should be kept in mind we have no way to know how many naked shorts exist. The market makers make more money the more people they can surprise. That means they may be all caught up on the required buying now and will attack the share price relentlessly through the split process. It's possible that's what the recent bull run was all about, the market makers positioning themselves favorably this time before the split. I'm not saying this is necessarily the most likely scenario, I'm saying we have no way to know.

 

[bkp_duke]

It's likely that Tesla sales of cars sold 12 years and more ago are cars sold to older people that are relatively well off and have much lower annual mileage than the average drivers. Elon wasn't trying to be super analytical here, he was simply making the point that recycling volumes are very low at the moment and will generally ramp with the sales of new vehicles minus 12-15 years. There is no point in trying to match the early recycling volumes with sales over a decade ago because there are too many variables in terms of totaled vehicles, re-purposed packs, batteries being sent to other recycling facilities like Redwood Materials, etc, etc, etc. Trying to make sense of the rough numbers Elon shared is an exercise in futility due to all these unknown variables.

People shouldn't try to extract precise meaning from data that is so incomplete unless they want erroneous conclusions.

A lot has happened with both battery chemistry and pack cooling / architecture since the original Model S. If anything, those packs lasting up to 15 years is a testament on how good Tesla's starting point was.

I would expect the 2170-based packs to last longer, with better chemistry and cooling.


Plus, frankly, a lot of these packs get recycled not because of pack failure, but simply because the car gets into an accident and is totaled due to "cost to repair" reasons, not anything to do with pack health.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Cheer up y'all.....at least $TSLA is up 15 of the last 18 trading sessions (including today)

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

... Yes I know age plays a part as well, but most of my degradation happened in the first 90k miles.

I think Elon was being conservative, and you shouldn't read too much into this off-the-cuff statement. I like this new Elon whose off-the-cuff statements are conservative.

...

My S is only at 101k but hitting 10 years (does have an 8 year battery with 80k though) still 245 range & 72.3 kWhr useable, seems to lose ~1kWhr / year?
Elon seemed very conservative and that was one of the few statements that could be used for FUD
I expect my S to last *forever ...I just replaced DC-DC fuses and put in a 12V Li battery & after it sat for 6 months and I couldn't get it to reset, it finally did!
I was getting worried doing hill climbs in my 3 that I may not have a car if something bad happened! ...3rd hill this year, eek Model 3 Hill Climb race Spin

makes me extra bullish now that I have my classic back! I'd think 20 years useable may be reasonable for some EV drivers. a little power drop & charge rate drop but totally useable, maybe not a trip car, the classic S charge rate never really was anyhow.

today price seems scammy, is this the dip Elon mentioned Yesterday?

 

[Artful Dodger]

All of big tech is down, for the Fed reasons stated above. I suspect this is simply algo trading and TSLA will continue it's climb today. Tho this macro vibe makes a $949 cap pretty easy.

<Insert Maxwell Smart meme here>

There goes the 10-Day Moving Average: