Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

I've come to accept that I'll never understand the market, at least short therm. Outstanding shareholder meeting, 2M target run rate by EOY, 100 million total production over 10 years, AI/Robot discussion, step closer to stock split....expected a really nice jump, not a 5% crap! Oh well, here for the long term, not day trading with the kids. This gives me something I can use-an excuse to drink!

I always think of the market as a long term accurate indicator but a short term gambling casino.

Buy and hold strong, financially solid companies long term and you will make money, but buying anything short term is a crapshoot due to unforeseen forces we have no control over. It's why I avoid options completely, it's a rigged game and you might as well be throwing Dragon Dice to determine whether or not you make money. A many year time horizon smooths all of the manipulating out. The phrase "when in doubt zoom out" is amazingly true.

This outlook has always enabled me to never be surprised when a stock behaves irrationally in the short term. It's usually just short term manipulation.

 

[madodel]

The more I know, the less I understand....

I remember when I use to wait for Musk to say something bizarre and controversial but it was a great meeting like the call was great. No fumbles, no interceptions. Yet we are still taking a beating by idiots. Hopefully the shorts pile in, the split is announced and then the pressure cooker starts to boil some tasty pigs.

 

[thesmokingman]

This is shades of the previous split, but it's a lot less of a drop compared to last time. It all bounced back though so hold on yall.

 

[Krugerrand]

Changing the subject, it looks like Tesla has saturated the US market for S Plaids. Today I have 12 available for immediate delivery and 3-7 weeks for a special order. Doesn’t seem to make a difference how I option it.

Ok, thanks for making me richer.

 

[bkp_duke]

Already done my Q3 delivery number. This will come as a shock; 383,000.

Too low. This isn't limbo. Go higher.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The other intent/purpose behind this weeks action and especially todays ---- Last ditch attempt to drop value of near term calls and LEAPS before the split. Cue hedge funds buying up LEAPS in mass right before close

 

[henchman24]

This isn't day traders. Volume is way too strong. This is nothing but a classic bear raid with a ton of naked shorting creating the selling volume. Simple as that.

It's completely specific to TSLA too. Big Tech stocks are all at their usual beta. High growth/No earnings stocks are actually in the green today. TSLA is being targeted. And when it's targeted like this, it's always naked shorting.

It is impossible to say definitively... we do know day traders have come in over the past couple weeks and are also working the split. They are the most likely to have stop losses set that can be triggered in a bear raid.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It is impossible to say definitively... we do know day traders have come in over the past couple weeks and are also working the split. They are the most likely to have stop losses set that can be triggered in a bear raid.

I think we're kinda saying the same thing actually. Hedge funds/MM's have the data to see where stop loss orders are. They know if they naked short enough, they can drop the stock to hit those levels. So I'd agree that there's probably some day traders from the past 1-2 weeks that are being closed out. But the vast majority of the volume is coming from naked shorting to force those stop losses.

 

[insaneoctane]

People are taking Elon's comments about pack lifespan out of context and reading too much into it. The estimate was not for how many years a lightly used pack would last, it was Elon estimating the average age of packs that were recycled for the purpose of determining how much volume growth their battery recycling facility would have. Because Tesla didn't make all that many cars until they had ramped Model 3. Obviously, the average age includes high milage packs (those will be the first ones to hit the recycling center).

A lightly used pack could last an indeterminate number of years depending upon many factors including the temperatures it was "stored" at for much of its life. While cold weather use is hard on a pack, cold storage is not. There are a lot of factors involved so there will be a big variation in how many years a pack lasts when it has been lightly used. Some will last over 20 years. Elon was speaking of the approximate average age range of a pack at retirement so as to better model the volume ramp of battery recycling. Since cars average something like 12K/year, he was probably calculating from that, not estimating how long a pack would last if you didn't use it.

Maybe, but using his and your suggested math...
12K/yr * (12 - 15 yr) = 144K - 180K. So using "average" numbers with what Elon shared last night are significantly below what I expect....easily by a factor of 2x or 3x.

 

[Krugerrand]

Too low. This isn't limbo. Go higher.

Embrace my number and spread it like monkeypox (probably too soon for that joke) and I promise you, we will be rewarded richly.

 

[MABMAB]

On Split:

There is zero difference in underlying value of the company.
It takes large money to make a company this size to move up, not retail.
The "story" being pumped out is the split will drive price up A LOT.
Even bulls like Gary Black suggest as much.
Gary sold out last time a big move up happened.

Ignore all the crap and decide for yourself.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Embrace my number and spread it like monkeypox (probably too soon for that joke) and I promise you, we will be rewarded richly.

Mom would not approve of this comment!

 

[insaneoctane]

I remember when I use to wait for Musk to say something bizarre and controversial but it was a great meeting like the call was great. No fumbles, no interceptions. Yet we are still taking a beating by idiots. Hopefully the shorts pile in, the split is announced and then the pressure cooker starts to boil some tasty pigs.

I was SUPER happy to see him pass on the controversial China question. Funny that a room full of retail investors would pressure him to move on....

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

On Split:

There is zero difference in underlying value of the company.
It takes large money to make a company this size to move up, not retail.
The "story" being pumped out is the split will drive price up A LOT.
Even bulls like Gary Black suggest as much.
Gary sold out last time a big move up happened.

Ignore all the crap and decide for yourself.

We've discussed this many times here. There are very real impacts from splits when it comes to naked shorting. Mainly because the stock split requires that all shares be accounted for.

Seeing how you have been here since 2019, you should know that. And it's not like it's speculation. It was very obvious during the last split for TSLA

 

[lascavarian]

So Tesla down and Twitter up????

Does someone suspect something?

 

[Snerruc]

Does anyone know the profit Margin on the S/X vehicles? Curious how much room they could lower prices to maintain demand and a healthy profit. Thought Elon said the refresh models actually cost less to make then the pre-refresh models but can't find the source.

My SWAG is that All the difference in price between the LR and the Plaid is profit. The profit on the LR would more than cover the cost increase on the Plaid. I also remember Elon saying that the refresh is cheaper to produce. I paid middle 80s for a Raven with FSD, so I suspect the profit on a new LR could be as high as $20,000.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555573959575363584

 

[henchman24]

Splits don't add value to the underlying company, but they send signals of strength. You don't split unless you think the underlying company is strong and likely to rise further in value. There have been a ton of studies that show stocks that split out perform the market in the following year+. The actual split does nothing, the messaging does a lot.

I don't think we have a 2020 event here, but a ~7-10% move makes a lot of sense. If the mechanism of the split causes issues (and it is entirely possible) we could see a short term spike above that. I think it would settle shortly after back into the normal range of a split move.

 

[henchman24]

So Tesla down and Twitter up????

Does someone suspect something?

Elon commenting last night on Twitter and that it would move ahead x.com is confirmation he's still seeking to buy Twitter. Which raises questions of Elon selling more Tesla and raises the odds of Twitter being solid to him at a premium. Odds are probably ~46 a share, so discounted a bit for risk 41/42 makes sense.

 

[MABMAB]

We've discussed this many times here. There are very real impacts from splits when it comes to naked shorting. Mainly because the stock split requires that all shares be accounted for.

Seeing how you have been here since 2019, you should know that. And it's not like it's speculation. It was very obvious during the last split for TSLA

No, still not buying it. Any Fiktard willing to engage in such stuff deserves what they get. Split has been broadcast for a long while. Problem positions can be exited.

Everyone expecting a thing? Well then I say folks might just as well being played.