Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I think those ppl are wrong. It's cheap. It won't make any money for anybody except Tesla for now. When those who were saying the bill will become costly didn't read the bill closely enough. No one qualifies right now with the sourcing requirements except for Tesla. And down the line if it forces legacies to source and build their EVs here then it will pay for itself by bringing that industry back to the US.

I think it's perfect. Unions are not what increases US' GDP, manufacturing will. This forces all key players back into the U.S because they found hiring American workers not profitable, but now are tax payer subsidized with this bill. So essentially if this bill works, this tax credit goes back into the economy while relying less on China. Think of it this way, it's almost forcing U.S to vertically integrate, if U.S was a mega corporation.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think it's perfect. Unions are not what increases US' GDP, manufacturing will. This forces all key players back into the U.S because they found hiring American workers not profitable, but now are tax payer subsidized with this bill. So essentially if this bill works, this tax credit goes back into the economy while relying less on China. Think of it this way, it's almost forcing U.S to vertically integrate, if U.S was a mega corporation.

Exactly, as it stands right now, my only gripe is the the hybrid part. I guess I could also say that I think the sedan/suv gap is too big. They should bring the sedan up to 60k or the suv down to 75k.

But besides those things, I actually think this a good bill for the US. Some will gripe that it will slow down EV adoption from legacy auto but the reality is, legacy auto wasn’t going to have the ability to achieve volume production anytime soon, at least 2-3 years. As @The Accountant post just showed, Ford is fundamentally capped at production rates. They won’t have an ability to S curve that production ramp for a couple years because they don’t control their battery supply.

So I have zero issue with legacy auto being screwed over by this bill because it will force them to invest in EV’s or die (well most will die off anyways but this bill will speed up that timeline). And it forces EV investment here in the US and gives direct incentives to both legacy auto and battery makers to make that investment as quickly as possible

 

[Buckminster]

90% success with Chuck's turn means a few things:

1. Camera resolution on side cameras is sufficient to pick out moving cars travelling at speed a long way out
2. Ability to find a gap in the fast moving traffic
3. Ability to stop in the median

Each of these improvements will provide major improvements on other types of manoeuvres. ~20% to ~90% is amazing in one release.

 

[EVMeister]

Elon is hyping AI Day: Part II.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556348857625092096

 

[MP3Mike]

When those who were saying the bill will become costly didn't read the bill closely enough. No one qualifies right now with the sourcing requirements except for Tesla.

Are you sure of that? I thought the Bolt batteries were made in the US now. But who knows where the minerals come from, just like with Tesla.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Senate EV bill just passed.

Consider me shocked that a bill that’s this pro Tesla (even though it wasn’t intended to be), is actually going to get passed.

I wonder how long Model Y wait times are going to get…..possible we see a 1.5-2 year wait time

Hopefully the moment this bill gets signed by Biden (likely within 1-2 weeks), Tesla immediately raises the Model Y price by 2-3k, drop the Model 3 LR price by 3k so it qualifies, and reiterates their rule that anyone who tries to delay taking delivery will lose their reservation and be forced to the back of the line and pay the most recent retail price.

 

[Singuy]

90% success with Chuck's turn means a few things:

1. Camera resolution on side cameras is sufficient to pick out moving cars travelling at speed a long way out
2. Ability to find a gap in the fast moving traffic
3. Ability to stop in the median

Each of these improvements will provide major improvements on other types of manoeuvres. ~20% to ~90% is amazing in one release.

Also people discount his turn as if it's some kind of a solved issue with other geofenced/mapped system and Tesla is here struggling. Currently NO other autonomous car even come close to attempting this turn in daylight hours with 60-70mph cross traffic.

 

[jw934]

It won't make any money for anybody except Tesla for now. . . No one qualifies right now with the sourcing requirements except for Tesla.

Are you sure of that?

Yes, Automakers are sure.

Quote:
According to John Bozzella, heads of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation.
The group represents General Motors, Toyota Motor, and Ford Motor among others.
"None would qualify for the full credit when additional sourcing requirements go into effect," he said

from: Automakers say 70% of EV models don't qualify for tax credit under Senate bill

Looking forward to next week's $TSLA price action.

EDIT: [Discoducky said below that the Congressional Budget Office only allocated $85M in 2023 for Clean Vehicle Credit of new cars. A concern for me.]

EDIT 2: [This Teslarati article from Aug 6 is encouraging:
Tesla supplier Talon Metals on Manchin EV Bill, Tesla & more
Quote: - “If you look at the landscape as it exists today, it’s a challenge, but it’s doable,” said Joe Britton, the head of the Zero Emission Transportation Association, which advocates for EV adoption,“We can meet these metrics.”
- Note: Tesla is a leading member of ZETA.

 

[Question]

Senate EV bill just passed.

Consider me shocked that a bill that’s this pro Tesla (even though it wasn’t intended to be), is actually going to get passed.

I wonder how long Model Y wait times are going to get…..possible we see a 1.5-2 year wait time

Hopefully the moment this bill gets signed by Biden (likely within 1-2 weeks), Tesla immediately raises the Model Y price by 2-3k, drop the Model 3 LR price by 3k so if qualifies, and reiterates their rule that anyone who tries to delay taking delivery will lose their reservation and be forced to the back of the line and pay the most recent retail price.

Is it clear that Model Y classifies as SUV and is eligible for the credit?

Is the bill unchanged since the last Tesla Daily deep dive, in example no union bonus in the bill?

If these questions are yes, this is insane news for shareholders! Profits margins are going to skyrocket for many years... It's excessive money taxpayer money spending but I would be lying if I said I'm not happy right now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Is it clear that Model Y classifies as SUV and is eligible for the credit?

Is the bill unchanged since the last Tesla Daily deep dive, in example no union bonus in the bill?

If these questions are yes, this is insane news for shareholders! Profits margins are going to skyrocket for many years... It's excessive money taxpayer money spending but I would be lying if I wasn't happy right now.

Yes, it’s crystal clear. I don’t know why this continues to be brought up. Y has always been classified as an SUV from the start.

Shorts and carebears continue to run this narrative even though the facts are clear as day.

There is no union clause

 

[JRP3]

Elon is hyping AI Day: Part II.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556348857625092096

The main thumb joint looks like a door hinge

 

[Singuy]

Is it clear that Model Y classifies as SUV and is eligible for the credit?

Is the bill unchanged since the last Tesla Daily deep dive, in example no union bonus in the bill?

If these questions are yes, this is insane news for shareholders! Profits margins are going to skyrocket for many years... It's excessive money taxpayer money spending but I would be lying if I wasn't happy right now.

Model Y qualifies, Model 3 AWD qualifies with a small price drop. SR+ is up in the air due to packs from China. So that "70%" that doesn't qualifies already counts Y, which is the other 30%. Once you add the 3 AWD then new headline will say "50%" of all EVs made does not qualify. Remember Tesla has 80% of the US EV market, so Tesla move the percentages big time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I also think that this little exercise misses the much more important elephant in the room: Volume 4680 production. This is the key to massive scaling since it unlocks supply and cell price that will move Tesla to where hundreds of millions of customers can buy the car.

It really doesn't. Elon and Tesla have BOTH been clear (since Battery Day) that 2/3rd's of Tesla auto production will use LFP (ie: Iron-cathode) chemistry. Further, ALL of Tesla's grid-scale storage products (ie: Megapack) will use LFP.

4680s will be nickel based, so important for high range/high performance products like Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster. These 3 applications (probably less than 10% of production by volume, or <2M/yr) will require 4680s, but TESLA will be MASSIVE without any contribution from 4680s whatsoever. Two partners are also ramping 4680 cell production (Panasonic, LG). It WON'T be an issue.

Sasha Yanchin made this mistake in his recent video on Tesla. He (wrongly) claimed that Tesla Energy would be constrained by 4680 cell supply going forward, so he reduced his estimates. Apparently he also missed the multiple times Tesla as told us that grid-level storage will be all LFP. Understandable he'd miss that since he follows the whole market rather than focusing on TSLA, but a major mistake nonetheless.

 

[lascavarian]

Elon is hyping AI Day: Part II.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556348857625092096

Love the image. Anyone know if the image is original to Tesla?

 

[Singuy]

It really doesn't. Elon and Tesla have BOTH been clear (since Battery Day) that 2/3rd's of Tesla auto production will use LFP (ie: Iron-cathode) chemistry. Further, ALL of Tesla's grid-scale storage products (ie: Megapack) will use LFP.

4680s will be nickel based, so important for high range/high performance products like Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster. These 3 applications (probably less than 10% of production by volume, or <2M/yr) will require 4680s, but TESLA will be MASSIVE without any contribution from 4680s whatsoever. Two partners are also ramping 4680 cell production (Panasonic, LG). It WON'T be an issue.

Sasha Yanchin made this mistake in his recent video on Tesla. He (wrongly) claimed that Tesla Energy would be constrained by 4680 cell supply going forward, so he reduced his estimates. Apparently he also missed the multiple times Tesla as told us that grid-level storage will be all LFP. Understandable he'd miss that since he follows the whole market rather than focusing on TSLA, but a major mistake nonetheless.

When did Musk say iron cathode will not be in 4680s? Pretty sure on battery day he said any kind of cathode are compatible with 4680s.

 

[SageBrush]

4680s will be nickel based

True enough for now. Any technical reason to think that will be the future also ?
The big promise of 4680 is scale. I hope LFP can realize the same benefit.

 

[hobbes]

Yesterday´s video from Giga Berlin shows a new (I´ve never seen at least) way to drive piles: screw them into the ground instead of hammering. I wonder if this might make a difference for ground water as this was a showstopper for driving piles before. This is the expansion of stamping (not giga casting):

EDIT:
- @petit_bateau says screw piles are not new - at Giga Berlin construction I have only seen piles being hammered before though.
- There are cars being moved through Superchargers on a Saturday
- lots and lots of Giga castings - wonder if with added shifts casting might be a bottleneck and they pre-produced while assembly lines were upgraded (I think we saw this at Fremont also)

EDIT 2:
- Logistics area almost completely filled with containers, never seen it that full (at end of video).

I think there is a good change we see a step change in output from Berlin soon..

EDIT 3:

Another video, this time from today - stacks of castings all over the place and superchargers with starlink terminals:

 

[MP3Mike]

When did Musk say iron cathode will not be in 4680s? Pretty sure on battery day he said any kind of cathode are compatible with 4680s.

On one of the calls it was asked and they essentially said that other formats were better for LFP. I suspect partially because LFP doesn't require all the safety precautions that the nickel based cells do.)

 

[MP3Mike]

Yes, Automakers are sure.

Quote:
According to John Bozzella, heads of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation.
The group represents General Motors, Toyota Motor, and Ford Motor among others.
"None would qualify for the full credit when additional sourcing requirements go into effect," he said

That sounds like they are saying that they won't qualify in the future unless they change sourcing. (Which is the whole point of the requirement.) So they may fully qualify now.

 

[petit_bateau]

Yesterday´s video from Giga Berlin shows a new (I´ve never seen at least) way to drive piles: screw them into the ground instead of hammering. I wonder if this might make a difference for ground water as this was a showstopper for driving piles before. This is the expansion of stamping (not giga casting):

Screwpiles have been a thing for decades at least.