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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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With all the tax credit talk related to the IRAct, have we bothered to do the simple math on what this adds to earnings? I know @The Accountant has done earnings projections many years out, should we start adjusting for this?

Tesla has shown a willingness to raise prices as demand overwhelms their ability to supply. IMO a lot of the 2020/21 price bumps were basically to capture extra margin from what Tesla assumed would be an extension and expansion of the EV tax credit(Build Bach Better).
Most Tesla models won't qualify. And I doubt they will raise the price $7,500 on the ones that do. (Though they might raise prices a little.) It seems that they are favoring just stopping taking additional orders when the backlog gets too long.
 
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Most Tesla models won't qualify. And I doubt they will raise the price $7,500 on the ones that do. (Though they might raise prices a little.) It seems that they are favoring just stopping taking additional orders when the backlog gets too long.
I’m very curious about the possibility of price increase due to this credit. Ford just did an $8500 increase on the lightning, if I remember correctly. They’ve been getting a lot of flack for that.

A modest price increase in the coming months would incentivize current orders (like the one I have) to be taken before end of year 2022, regardless of it qualifying for a credit or not. The government really needs to weigh in, but I’m not expecting they do that until the last minute. The DOE update was just more confusing than clarifying.
 
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Australia Bank to end loans on diesel and petrol cars in 2025

Nice to see some change in this direction, however it should be noted that Bank Australia is miniscule (441 employees and A$131m in revenues last year according to Wikipedia) so impacts will be negligible. I lived in Australia most of my life and worked in the finance industry and hadn't heard of them.
 
I’m very curious about the possibility of price increase due to this credit. Ford just did an $8500 increase on the lightning, if I remember correctly. They’ve been getting a lot of flack for that.

A modest price increase in the coming months would incentivize current orders (like the one I have) to be taken before end of year 2022, regardless of it qualifying for a credit or not. The government really needs to weigh in, but I’m not expecting they do that until the last minute. The DOE update was just more confusing than clarifying.
The F150 Lightning was underpriced and probably still is, and it almost certainly won't qualify for the full $7500 so the price increase seems disconnected from the credit to start.

If prices do increase, I'd expect those increases to be offset by the added costs that will accompany meeting these domestic raw mineral and end product manufacturing requirements.


There's a reason most of the raw mineral extraction and refining is done in certain parts of the world: building large mines and refining facilities is far more difficult and more expensive outside of those areas. There are mountains of environmental regulations in highly developed countries, lobbying, people who don't want things in their backyard regardless of the broader benefits, etc. Labour here has much higher pay expectations, and producers of these things domestically will have strong pricing power as manufacturers fight to secure the limited output so they can qualify for the credits.

To sum it up, doing all of this domestically will cost more and the credits are there to offset the additional costs rather than line pockets with profits.
 

Ashok Elluswamy (head of FSD/autopilot) keynote at CVPR'22 WAD on FSD​


Well worth watching.

Introduction
Classical -> Dense Depth -> Occupancy Networks for finding drivable space
Occupancy networks have some nice properties,
Occupancy network Architecture.
Static/moving objects, False Pedestrians - dummies, etc. -> every object is a moving object if enough force is applied!
Predict 4D occupancy flow - persistent.
Reasoning about occulsion.
Occupancy networks <-> Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF)
Full NeRF too computationally intensive to run in car, run cut down version for sanity checking.
Autopilot saving from crashes due to missaplication of accelerator.
Working on comprehensive crash avoidance. Search space large, take minutes to do full search, cut down version in car.
Come and join us.
 
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I have a question to the people more familiar with the inner workings of the markets:
Does the 2 day clearing time for share purchase apply to the big boyz (such as MMs) too, or only to us peasant retail investors ?

If it does apply to them, then any shady naked shorts would have to be covered by them on Monday, so that they get the books clean by Wednesday close before the split goes live on Thursday morning. On the other hand, if they can clear their purchase the same day, then they only need to cover on Wednesday.
 
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I am starting to get a significant ego on just how humble I remain given that I spotted this company relatively early and went all in. Tesla is fulfilling the goals I hoped for and much more. In addition, the world has adapted to the new world order as badly as I expected which of course is important to Tesla's worth.

Actual clever folk on this forum who are making a second fortune must have great difficulty in staying so humble. Yes, my praise is humbling.
 
If you ask nicely he'll let you know 4:32 am Monday morning...or he'll just let you know his prediction came true at market close.
I was thinking that if Dodger wanted to follow up his tweet with a prediction, he would volunteer it, and I would enjoy hearing his reasoning regardless of actuality.

I am comfortable with my position for the long term regardless despite having just watched half a dozen financial YouTube interviews of fund managers explaining why they recommend hedging long positions. My concern lies more with Ukraine, Taiwan, climate change and possible world famine in the next 12 months.

Edit: I did’t notice the gap and missed this prediction of his mid-day Friday: “There's a gap to fill. MMs will cover on Monday morning.”. Informative.
 
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Nice to see some change in this direction, however it should be noted that Bank Australia is miniscule (441 employees and A$131m in revenues last year according to Wikipedia) so impacts will be negligible. I lived in Australia most of my life and worked in the finance industry and hadn't heard of them.

They only serve non penal colony descendants so makes sense.
 
The F150 Lightning was underpriced and probably still is, and it almost certainly won't qualify for the full $7500 so the price increase seems disconnected from the credit to start.
On underpriced, maybe. Ford said the Mach-E was no longer profitable due to cost of cost of components.

On the price raise of $8500, the timing is awfully fishy. After the IRA passed in the senate, ford and GM pretty much immediately raised prices for their EVs, but not their other ICE cars, as far as I know.
 
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I am starting to get a significant ego on just how humble I remain given that I spotted this company relatively early and went all in. Tesla is fulfilling the goals I hoped for and much more. In addition, the world has adapted to the new world order as badly as I expected which of course is important to Tesla's worth.

Actual clever folk on this forum who are making a second fortune must have great difficulty in staying so humble. Yes, my praise is humbling.
This is called a humble brag and you nailed it.

It was my first true investment as a young 20s man ten years ago.

I completely agree and have a hard time holding mine back when I'm around family and friends. :)
 
Actual clever folk on this forum who are making a second fortune must have great difficulty in staying so humble. Yes, my praise is humbling.
I’m a total moron compared to most of y’all, but I walk around in this world and can’t believe how wrong everyone else is about almost everything (particularly related to what we discuss here).

If I spoke my mind in public, I might get punched in the face a lot. But I’m physically huge and awesome and I love people. Even the idiots.
 
I’ve found the easiest - and most painful - way to stay humble is to focus on all the failures you’ve had as proselytizers either for purchasing a Tesla or for buying TSLA.

Successes in either of those goals are terrific, but why-oh-why have I been unable to convince that friend or relative to think clearly and do as we have done?

It is very, very humbling.
 

Ashok Elluswamy (head of FSD/autopilot) keynote at CVPR'22 WAD on FSD​


Well worth watching.

Introduction
Classical -> Dense Depth -> Occupancy Networks for finding drivable space
Occupancy networks have some nice properties,
Occupancy network Architecture.
Static/moving objects, False Pedestrians - dummies, etc. -> every object is a moving object if enough force is applied!
Predict 4D occupancy flow - persistent.
Reasoning about occulsion.
Occupancy networks <-> Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF)
Full NeRF too computationally intensive to run in car, run cut down version for sanity checking.
Autopilot saving from crashes due to missaplication of accelerator.
Working on comprehensive crash avoidance. Search space large, take minutes to do full search, cut down version in car.
Come and join us.
For those that didn’t watch, one tidbit is that Tesla is already overriding 40 accelerator pedal misapplications PER DAY.