Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Q - will the battery tax credit apply to robots too?

Only if they are capable of giving piggy back rides?

 

[betstarship]

Only if they are capable of giving piggy back rides?

How about when they start helping to manufacture EVs?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Tesla’s U.S. margins are gonna be insane with $45/kWh subsidies, ramped 4680 and gigacasting.

 

[Nolimits]

Will tesla bots need a union? Maybe the potus can come around then…

 

[Ogre]

Tesla’s margins U.S. margins are gonna be insane with $45/kWh subsidies, ramped 4680 and gigacasting.

If Tesla passes on this incentive to consumers and gets both the $7,500 credit plus the $45/ kWh from Uncle Sam for making their own cells, the Model Y is only $3000 more expensive than when I bought it 18 months ago.

 

[2daMoon]

How about when they start helping to manufacture EVs?

How about when they start helping to manufacture batteries?

 

[betstarship]

How about when they start helping to manufacture batteries?

...or, maybe, mine for what's needed for battery production?

 

[dhanson865]

T-5 min to liftoff:

SpaceX on Twitter: "Due to weather, now targeting 11:41 p.m. ET for tonight's launch of Starlink" / Twitter

Starlink 4-23 Mission / SpaceX (Youtube)

EDIT: Today was the 2nd flight for this F-9 Booster (s/n B1069), and marked the highest mass-to-orbit (16.7 tons) ever delivered by a Falcon 9 rocket. Using this extended capability, today SpaceX launched 54 Starlink satellites into LEO, an increase from the usual payload of 52 satellites to orbit per mission.

B1069 was refurbished with new engines after the booster was damaged during recovery on a drone ship on Dec 21, 2021. So it seems SpaceX has found a way to increase performance on these new engines, enabling this higher payload. That 4% increase in payload further implies about a $1.2M reduction in future Starlink launch costs. Winning!

"That means efficiency functioning on multiple levels and in multiple dimensions.".​

-- S.R. Hadden, from Contact (1997)​

Chairs!

Just so you know, 53 is a normal load for recent launches. I'm not sure where you got 52 from

/r/spacex/comments/w78h54/starlink_general_discussion_and_deployment_thread/

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just so you know, 53 is a normal load for recent launches. I'm not sure where you got 52 from

/r/spacex/comments/w78h54/starlink_general_discussion_and_deployment_thread/

Lol, short-sellers, obviously.

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

I agree. I was one of the first here saying that no lack of tax breaks could stop the change to EVs now. Like a couple of years ago. The only thing that could slow it down was/is lack of production.

Now though, I think that if 1euro/kWh electricity sticks around in Europe it will significantly slow down sales of EVs here. Few here have access to free solar power. Lots of people may decide they can keep their aging ICE car for another couple of years. It probably won't make a difference looking a decade ahead but it can certainly put a dent in the s-curve.

Petrol is still expensive in Europe, I wonder how the cost per km stacks up against electricity.

Seems to be 6 euro/litre, say 30 km per litre.

5 km / euro.

An EV should also be 5 km / euro?

 

[NicoV]

I agree. I was one of the first here saying that no lack of tax breaks could stop the change to EVs now. Like a couple of years ago. The only thing that could slow it down was/is lack of production.

Now though, I think that if 1euro/kWh electricity sticks around in Europe it will significantly slow down sales of EVs here. Few here have access to free solar power. Lots of people may decide they can keep their aging ICE car for another couple of years. It probably won't make a difference looking a decade ahead but it can certainly put a dent in the s-curve.

To put 1 euro/kWh in perspective, (I’m using very rough numbers here): 10000 euro buys you a 10000Wp solar panel installation. Which delivers almost 10000kWh per year. In regions where the excess solar production can be used 1 on 1 to compensate for your utility produced electricity, the payback time is 1 year. Which leaves you with 10000kWh free electricity every year. In other words, Putins war is the biggest incentive ever in Europe to install solar panels.

 

[CorneliusXX]

One questions is if Panasonic is willing to pass along any of that savings to Tesla or if they keep their portion all to themselves. Same goes for all the other car makers, will LG/SKi keep the credit or pass it along to GM/Ford/etc. (Obviously Tesla will get the full credit for the 4680 cells/pack they make themselves.)

There's a few forces in play for this calc.

• If Tesla 4680s and Pana 4680s were $100/kWh to manufacture pre subsidy yet Tesla gets a $45 subsidy on their own battery, why would they pay Pana $100 for their cells?
• That said, if there is a market wide shortage for cells and Pana can sell to other vehicle manufacturers then there may not be the same margin pressure for Pana to keep reducing prices - and just not sell to Tesla at the lower rate so Pana can bank the subsidy
• If Tesla can still make a profitable product with $100/kWh cells then they would probably still buy them.

It's great that Tesla is making their own cells as it is a powerful negotiating tool when purchasing from other suppliers, but market dynamics may have the final say.

 

[-=buzz=-]

To put 1 euro/kWh in perspective, (I’m using very rough numbers here): 10000 euro buys you a 10000Wp solar panel installation. Which delivers almost 10000kWh per year. In regions where the excess solar production can be used 1 on 1 to compensate for your utility produced electricity, the payback time is 1 year. Which leaves you with 10000kWh free electricity every year. In other words, Putins war is the biggest incentive ever in Europe to install solar panels.

Are you talking pure panel cost, or fully installed & energized?

If it's the second, lucky you!
Around here it's at least 2.5x the price and ~1 year waiting time due to parts and labor shortage.
And from what I read, af least Germany has massive labor shortage too.
I doubt this gets much better in the short term..

 

[Artful Dodger]

say 30 km per litre

Uh, that's 70.5 mpg (U.S.) so not likely. The EU mandated avg fuel economy across a manufacturer's fleet was 57 mpg in 2021. Even the diminutive Toyota Yaris gets about 51 mpg real-world.

So a Tesla Model Y at 150 Whr/km and €1.25/KWh goes over 8 km for each Euro spend on energy. That's in comparison to the gas car in your scenario (57 mpg or 4.1 liter/100 km, €6/ltr) or 4 km for each Euro spent on gasoline. That's half the cost per kilometer to drive a larger, more capable EV vs. the smallest gasoline sub-compact. And lower maintenance, and longer life, and higher resale...

Plus as @NicoV points out, you can distill your own electricity at home.

Chairs!

 

[hobbes]

Petrol is still expensive in Europe, I wonder how the cost per km stacks up against electricity.

Seems to be 6 euro/litre, say 30 km per litre.

5 km / euro.

An EV should also be 5 km / euro?

Your numbers are a bit off ..

See this for European gas prices: Benzin- / Spritpreise | Europa | USD U.S. Dollar ($) / Liter
So gas price is in the order of 2 EUR per litre.

Let´s take a BMW 3 series and compare it to Tesla Model 3 (what I drive):

• BMW take 5 litres of diesel per 100 km which comes down to 0,10 EUR/km or 10 km/Euro(BMW 3er G20: Test, Verbrauch, Bilder, Daten, Preis)
  
  
• Model 3 takes 17 kWh per 100 km so 0,17 kWh per km
  (Tesla Model 3 im Test: Nicht alles ist super)

Consumption measured by ADAC in both cases (German AAA).

Now it all depends on what you pay for charging one kWh:

• Superchargers: Tesla App says I payed 0,53 EUR/kWh on average (part of that was in France), so it comes down to 0,09 EUR/km or 11 km/EUR, so basically the same as for the BMW (variation in Supercharger and gas prices etc.)
  
  
• Charge at home: 0,40 EUR per kWh in Germany, so about 20% cheaper than gas car (Aktueller Strompreis pro kWh in Deutschland - StromAuskunft.de)
  
  
• Own solar: Say about 0.10 EUR/kWh so 90% cheaper than gas.

 

[Maarten]

Another similarity between Amazon and Tesla. Early on Amazon bought Kiva, a warehouse robotics company, which gave them an edge over everyone. Likewise Tesla bought Grohman, and most recently Maxwell and have used both to gain an edge over everyone.

Unlike us, very few in the press knows any of this...

Your story about the robots I have witnessed at first hand.
Years ago I was occupied with developing an industrial park in The Netherlands.
We were able to attract Timberland to build a large distribution center there of about 4 ha.
They were the first to choose and use a robot system that went around the center to pick up the goods automatically for further handling.

At the opening of Timberland the show of robots, forming a word, unfortunately failed.
Like Franz with the Cybertruck and the steel ball.
Representatives of Amazon were curious and came to have a look at what system Timberland had implemented.
As a result they didn't just implement the system, but bought the whole robotic company and used it in all of their warehouses.

 

[elasalle]

Final month of deliveries will be domestic/China.
Export/ # of ships wise, I think tally is looking really great.

(So looking forward to August CPI and blowout Q3 ....)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1563503003008503809

Seems there was another ship that also left for japan and not counted here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1563481681486442497

OZsome

https://twitter.com/x/status/1563838527753703425

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, I’d like a phone with 4680’s. Or maybe a structural battery pack.

 

[2daMoon]

SMR shows us the numbers from Koolaid sipping while watching his channel.
The results are astounding and highlight Tesla's uniqueness among the investment world.

 

[brantse]

Do we really believe that additional financial incentive thrown at battery materials will increase output, or will it just cause more market dislocations? From my understanding Lithium Americas has been working on permits for Thacker Pass for like 5 years and have largely been met with red tape delays. It seems to me that there's already enough financial incentives for these projects and we've seen what happens when too much money gets injected into the system.