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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Much for the Treasury Secretary (or their assignee(s)) to clarify.
Like:
Do materials need to be post-consumer to be considered recycled ?
Does country of origin need to be tracked through recycling? If so, at what percentage are they no longer deemed 'wrong place sourced'?
What does processed mean?
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Actually, all of this stuff is pretty weak sauce compared to Karen Rei's serious and detailed analysis on Twitter.Or if you prefer reading, the same analysis is here:
The "Advanced manufacturing production credit" Spells Big Profits for US EV Battery Makers
Commentary over the EV tax credit portion of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has completely missed portion as it relates to battery materials.www.hffinancial.com
navguy12
Active Member
True…hopefully those thousands of daily use cases get backfilled with renewables sooner than later…
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Karen's careful reading and quantitative analysis stands in stark contrast to "I know a lot about batteries but haven't really looked at the bill" combined with "I know a lot about finance and sort of looked at the bill but not enough to understand it" combined.
Here's a nice graphic annotated by Karen:
Here's a nice graphic annotated by Karen:
Karen Rei's analysis is quite good, but it doesn't actually cover the Advanced Manufacturing Production credit, which is the subject of the Limiting Factor Video. It's a tax credit of up to $45 per kWh that can go directly to Tesla for their battery manufacturing efforts.
As much as I'd like to take Karen's word as gospel, she still doesn't quite put to rest what constitutes a "foreign entity of concern". She says "My read is...", and goes on to say that anything from China counts. Others take a more narrow view of what constitutes an entity of concern under the new law.
I've given up. We gotta wait to know for sure.
I've been away for work in Japan and just catching up with all the latest news.
As I mentioned back in 2020, all Elon's Co.s products would eventually come together to form the bigger picture.
Now that Elon has confirmed that Starlink V2 would deliver some transmission capacity to Teslas, I think it's just a matter of time before they make a V3 to deliver all data capabilities on Teslas. Maybe when the devices or some limitations say frequencies and hardware that are necessary come, we'd see this happening. If I'm going to make any guess, it's when Teslas move fully to incorporate 5G/high bandwidth-friendly frequencies and antennas.
We don't need full fledge antenna like Dishy McFlatface that's capable of running 300mbps+.... but a miniature version that's enough to deliver say 100mbps and the potential is already incredible.
And I think the reason of moving to a time-limited basic connectivity for Tesla is, other than as the fleet grows, the cost would become prohibitive, that if this is what Elon is planning, Starlink would be able to have a sizeable customer base. And if they ever plan to go public with it, it would sound great for potential investors.
Either way, what I really wanted to say is, to all the investors here who don't agree that Elon should merge most of his entities under Tesla's umbrella, that you are missing on what these whole things would be able to do when they all come together as a giant puzzle.
As I mentioned back in 2020, all Elon's Co.s products would eventually come together to form the bigger picture.
Now that Elon has confirmed that Starlink V2 would deliver some transmission capacity to Teslas, I think it's just a matter of time before they make a V3 to deliver all data capabilities on Teslas. Maybe when the devices or some limitations say frequencies and hardware that are necessary come, we'd see this happening. If I'm going to make any guess, it's when Teslas move fully to incorporate 5G/high bandwidth-friendly frequencies and antennas.
We don't need full fledge antenna like Dishy McFlatface that's capable of running 300mbps+.... but a miniature version that's enough to deliver say 100mbps and the potential is already incredible.
And I think the reason of moving to a time-limited basic connectivity for Tesla is, other than as the fleet grows, the cost would become prohibitive, that if this is what Elon is planning, Starlink would be able to have a sizeable customer base. And if they ever plan to go public with it, it would sound great for potential investors.
Either way, what I really wanted to say is, to all the investors here who don't agree that Elon should merge most of his entities under Tesla's umbrella, that you are missing on what these whole things would be able to do when they all come together as a giant puzzle.
It is very cute that these auto executives think there is something they can do to slow this down.2025? That would be a win. 2030-35 was the 'stretch' goal before this crisis. That timetable was also subject to German Auto industry lobbying:
Unpopular EV Opinion: BMW CEO Warns About the Premature End of Gas Cars
BMW’s CEO doesn’t believe the market is quite ready for a full-force electric vehicle takeover.observer.com
So... Result!
These bans that are coming down are irrelevant, the industry is going to move at whatever pace it can scale. The migration will happen as fast as Tesla is able to scale up plus whatever the rest of the industry can contribute. Subsidies are either going to end up enriching EV buyers or EV makers, or both… they are not going to speed things up.
By 2035, everything which isn’t EV will be gone. Likely sooner than that.
Bringing effective cost per kWh down to… ?? $40 - 60/ kWh ?? After the 4680 ramp is done?
Seems almost more important than the rebate/ tax credit. That affects all EVs and all consumers regardless of sale price or income levels.
One questions is if Panasonic is willing to pass along any of that savings to Tesla or if they keep their portion all to themselves. Same goes for all the other car makers, will LG/SKi keep the credit or pass it along to GM/Ford/etc. (Obviously Tesla will get the full credit for the 4680 cells/pack they make themselves.)
Bet TSLA
Active Member
There are multiple deep dive twitter threads. Not saying she covers everything, but.... Try this one:
I'll agree that we won't really know what the sausage is like until it's done being made, which is why I think this level of analysis is mostly pointless at this time. What I get from Karen's analysis is that there are sufficient huge holes in this bill that probably everybody is going to get full credits.
And my expectation is that those who don't actually qualify will just lie about it. Seriously, how is anybody going to determine after the fact exactly what minerals are in a particular battery pack and how they got there?
I was thinking mostly of Teslas in house production. I’m sure Panasonic will charge market rates. Tesla might negotiate better rates.
This could potentially bring a lot of battery production into the US. The numbers seem pretty big.
As a national industrial policy, this is massive. It will reshape supply chains, resource extraction and manufacturing the world over.
Tesla Giga Berlin Produces Luxury Model Ys, Concludes New Street Research with $530 TSLA PT
Tesla Giga Berlin produces the luxury Model Y, an analyst at New Street Research concluded after a factory visit. The firm affirmed the Buy rating with a price target of $530 per share.
www.tesmanian.com
The Chinese government has been piling money into these industries for a decade thinking they would dominate battery production. This might be an interesting reversal.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I've been thinking this as well.
Lets say you need 40% of value to be approved. Does it say anywhere that EVERY single car you sell has to achieve that? Or only the ones sold to someone that uses the tax break? If only half the cars sells to buyers using the tax break then you could potentially only need 20% value. Yes, I know that more than half probably will but trying to keep the math easy.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
T-5 min to liftoff:
SpaceX on Twitter: "Due to weather, now targeting 11:41 p.m. ET for tonight's launch of Starlink" / Twitter
Starlink 4-23 Mission / SpaceX (Youtube)
EDIT: Today was the 2nd flight for this F-9 Booster (s/n B1069), and marked the highest mass-to-orbit (16.7 tons) ever delivered by a Falcon 9 rocket. Using this extended capability, today SpaceX launched 54 Starlink satellites into LEO, an increase from the usual payload of 52 satellites to orbit per mission.
B1069 was refurbished with new engines after the booster was damaged during recovery on a drone ship on Dec 21, 2021. So it seems SpaceX has found a way to increase performance on these new engines, enabling this higher payload. That 4% increase in payload further implies about a $1.2M reduction in future Starlink launch costs. Winning!
Chairs!
SpaceX on Twitter: "Due to weather, now targeting 11:41 p.m. ET for tonight's launch of Starlink" / Twitter
Starlink 4-23 Mission / SpaceX (Youtube)
EDIT: Today was the 2nd flight for this F-9 Booster (s/n B1069), and marked the highest mass-to-orbit (16.7 tons) ever delivered by a Falcon 9 rocket. Using this extended capability, today SpaceX launched 54 Starlink satellites into LEO, an increase from the usual payload of 52 satellites to orbit per mission.
B1069 was refurbished with new engines after the booster was damaged during recovery on a drone ship on Dec 21, 2021. So it seems SpaceX has found a way to increase performance on these new engines, enabling this higher payload. That 4% increase in payload further implies about a $1.2M reduction in future Starlink launch costs. Winning!
"That means efficiency functioning on multiple levels and in multiple dimensions.".
-- S.R. Hadden, from Contact (1997)
Chairs!
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Q - will the battery tax credit apply to robots too?
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I agree. I was one of the first here saying that no lack of tax breaks could stop the change to EVs now. Like a couple of years ago. The only thing that could slow it down was/is lack of production.
Now though, I think that if 1euro/kWh electricity sticks around in Europe it will significantly slow down sales of EVs here. Few here have access to free solar power. Lots of people may decide they can keep their aging ICE car for another couple of years. It probably won't make a difference looking a decade ahead but it can certainly put a dent in the s-curve.
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