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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You ain't wrong, this board is quite argumentative. But that's part of it's foundation and value.
Since the dawn of time all conversation regarding Tesla and the renewables transition was one huge debate about viability. We needed to micro-argue every little point to prove what Elon proposes is possible.
Tesla investment just attracts that kind of brain.
That being said....you were wrong. It has not been a good year, by any definition of year. (Just kidding! Kind of)
While it doesn't contain a release date, this writeup from Airstream is pretty informative:
The Airstream eStream Concept: An Electrifying Promise for the Future of Travel and Adventure
the eStream Concept Travel Trailer is a vision for how we’ll hit the road in the coming years.
www.airstream.com
What I really like about this concept is it's "Drive" function, where the batteries and motors in it help push your BEV down the road. I'd love to see this same concept introduced in the trailers to be used with the Semi. A trailer's footprint would allow the creation of a huge skateboard with motors, regenerative brakes, and solar panels on the roof. It has the potential to dramatically increase the range of a Semi... might take a bit of time to charge, but that's time well spent!
This one my friend!You need to specify which year end please!!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Not that I disagree with your conclusions and thinking, I do also like to add for those that aren't aware - despite all of the interest rate raises so far (and looking only at the raises), the Fed has moved from maximum stimulation at the beginning of the year (and for a significant period before that) to .... neutral interest rates.
The current interest rate is neither at a level that is generally considered stimulative to the economy, nor at a level considered restrictive to the economy. Despite the very high inflation levels, the Fed interest rates aren't yet at a level designed to restrict the economy and bring down inflation.
The next raise will, finally, get us to the lower end of the range that is considered restrictive to economic activity. This is my own thinking and reasoning for why the Fed needs to do the .75 rate increase; to improve the odds that -another- .50 or .75 won't be needed at the next meeting.
The wildcard here is the start of QT, and just how much of the budgeted / publicized level of QT is actually going on. I see the scale of QT to likely have a larger and faster impact on stock market valuations, even if it isn't as widely or well understood.
I don't have insight into this organization, but they do have an alternative take on the interest rate and QT going on that I find valuable to also be aware of (they also explain the issue a lot better than I can):
The Liquidity Hole Is Expanding
Co-CIO Greg Jensen and members of Bridgewater’s research team examine the downward pressure on asset pricing, driven by the rapidly expanding liquidity hole and Fed tightening.
www.bridgewater.com
In particular I wasn't aware of the "doubling up" (my term) on the QE side, where the Fed was buying up Treasuries and mortgage backed bonds in huge piles, leaving lots of money on bank balance sheets that were ALSO used to buy up huge piles. Now both are net sellers - not just the Fed.
I -also- keep in mind aggregates are made up of individuals (companies in this case) and that they won't all be impacted equally. I do see Tesla as being in a great position to capitalize on any economic difficulties (wealthier segment least affected by the economic troubles, way too high demand to supply EV demand, much more cash on the balance sheet than debt, no need to fund continuing operations or growth via debt, etc..).
Good point. So this is private information, and so outside of that circle it should be considered as stolen property. If someone tries to sell me a watch that I know was stolen, should I buy it? So why is the media having different standards?
adiggs
Well-Known Member
This dynamic is something that I have only seen get significant air time and insight from Cathy Woods / ARK. Renewable / sustainable energy has, effectively, a capital cost to install and then ~0 ongoing operating costs (compared to fossil fuels which have both. In time with enough renewable energy installed (think 3-10x of current actual energy needs, as opposed to simply replacing current energy needs), our world will have both abundant energy and at a lower total cost to global GDP than today's fossil fuel based energy system. The number I've seen previously, but have no link to support my memory, is that about 10% of global GDP goes into energy.
Imagine a world where 1/2 of that is freed up for other uses? Whatever will we do with it all? Everything gets cheaper when the energy inputs to make that anything gets cheaper.
As a sidebar, I anticipate that we will see, this century, a residential electricity model in some areas that is similar to today's internet access model; pay your monthly bill for access to the electricity grid for your house, and then use as much or little electricity as you need / want. Maybe you'll also need a home battery to buffer your consumption for this rate plan - electricity will be so cheap for enough or all of the day that it will cost too much to meter it. Sort of how our home internet service is now, at least in cities, a flat monthly fee and use as much as you'd like. Talk about deflationary.
This is at least one reason I have great hope for our future - that's a future that I want to see and be a part of.
first drive on FSD Beta 10.69.2... not much change for me ... problem with speed limit in residential area 55 mph ....that could be a real problem ... never had this issue before ... but i did try some new streets ... no posted speed limit but certainly default should not be 55 mph
If you've taken advantage of any of the recent discounts to accumulate more shares then yes, it's still been a good year. I've been adding some and may have reached my peak. No really, I mean it this time.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
These two points, accelerated(and unpredictable) QT plus the next move only now taking us into true tightening, are a lot of why I think Powell may hesitate to go .75.Not that I disagree with your conclusions and thinking, I do also like to add for those that aren't aware - despite all of the interest rate raises so far (and looking only at the raises), the Fed has moved from maximum stimulation at the beginning of the year (and for a significant period before that) to .... neutral interest rates.
The current interest rate is neither at a level that is generally considered stimulative to the economy, nor at a level considered restrictive to the economy. Despite the very high inflation levels, the Fed interest rates aren't yet at a level designed to restrict the economy and bring down inflation.
The next raise will, finally, get us to the lower end of the range that is considered restrictive to economic activity. This is my own thinking and reasoning for why the Fed needs to do the .75 rate increase; to improve the odds that -another- .50 or .75 won't be needed at the next meeting.
The wildcard here is the start of QT, and just how much of the budgeted / publicized level of QT is actually going on. I see the scale of QT to likely have a larger and faster impact on stock market valuations, even if it isn't as widely or well understood.
I don't have insight into this organization, but they do have an alternative take on the interest rate and QT going on that I find valuable to also be aware of (they also explain the issue a lot better than I can):
The Liquidity Hole Is Expanding
Co-CIO Greg Jensen and members of Bridgewater’s research team examine the downward pressure on asset pricing, driven by the rapidly expanding liquidity hole and Fed tightening.
In particular I wasn't aware of the "doubling up" (my term) on the QE side, where the Fed was buying up Treasuries and mortgage backed bonds in huge piles, leaving lots of money on bank balance sheets that were ALSO used to buy up huge piles. Now both are net sellers - not just the Fed.
I -also- keep in mind aggregates are made up of individuals (companies in this case) and that they won't all be impacted equally. I do see Tesla as being in a great position to capitalize on any economic difficulties (wealthier segment least affected by the economic troubles, way too high demand to supply EV demand, much more cash on the balance sheet than debt, no need to fund continuing operations or growth via debt, etc..).
There wasn't much risk in the last two raises to neutral. Other than shocking the mortgage/housing market. This one should have a much greater impact. And the next one even more, etc. Makes sense to me they'll proceed with caution.
Now if WTI were at $110? All bets off.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Back on topic.....I'm looking for either $306.90 here or $304.20.
Let's goooooo!
Let's goooooo!
Hold on to your butts guys, sub $300 incoming
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Hmm... 304.42. An Oldsmobile number.
Good start on the week!
Good start on the week!
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Just curious about theories on our continued low volume? Today's was half of daily average. Money still on the sidelines?
TSLA has closed to the upside for 5 successive sessions following a rebound from its 50-day SMA (simple moving average). Its 200-day SMA was surpassed on Friday with further advance today; that’s technically encouraging. The next target would be the August 16th high of $314.67.
Been focusing on this for a while.
Optimist going forward:
1) All the retail suckers got cleaned out and can't play anymore so volume has dropped considerably.
2) Smart money is buying it up while institutions and slow movers are waiting for the all clear and when they get it there will be a buying frenzy and new highs.
Pessimist going forward:
1) All the smart money knows this is a bear market and is waiting to hammer it hard when it tops out and the euphoria over the latest bounce dies down. The FED has made it very clear they will remain aggressive until CPI collapses along with labor market which means relentless rate hikes going into the middle of 2023. Look out for post CPI report to sell the news.
We did have consistent low volume elevation off the lows post the great recession that lead to a booming stock market. OTOH. more rate hikes means more beat downs.
Fairly low volume across the board on the tech side. Tesla was abnormally high (compared to the rest of the market, not itself) on the rise into August. Could make arguments for the financials and split playing into that. After the split, there hasn't been a catalyst to bring back in volume for Tesla (or really the whole market). My expectation is that either way tomorrow, we will have volume. Money has been sitting on the sidelines for a month now waiting for this CPI number.
Bullish for EVs, bullish for energy storage (I've been chomping at the bit for Tesla to sell Powerwalls a la carte), bullish for TSLA!
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