Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Xepa777]

Would like to point out that James Douma was confidently and almost condescendingly dead wrong when he said this the original picture of the hands was just a pretty render and had nothing to do with the robot.

Douma is nowhere near some like sandy Munroe and the only reason he has relevance is because Dave gave him a platform to speak.

 

[Singuy]

Yeah........not buying that Reuters article one bit.

Getting to 500k for just the 3/Y for Q4 doesn't seem possible and it's equally impossible that there'd be zero ramp from Q1 to Q3 of 2023. This is garbage reporting. Status quo for Reuters

Now looking at this, seems like Tesla is expecting Berlin/Texas' steep part of the S curve to be beginning of Q4. If you look at Q2 2018's press release, that was their steep ramp quarter and then exited Q4 at 61k model 3s. Then for the next year they were increasing it to 70-80k of model 3 until China came online.

So the takeaway from this Reuter slide is Berlin/Texas are going to hit 5000/week somewhere this upcoming quarter that will help propel Tesla to hit a production rate of almost 500k/q. Then Berlin/Texas begin to hit the top of the S curve for the Y for the rest of next year(*note cybertruck is not part of this production chart, it's only for 3/Y...so this is not TOTAL vehicle production, just 3/Y).

 

[Zero CO2]

So Dave gets a one on one meeting, and I am still waiting on them to verify my shares?

View attachment 858567View attachment 858567

same here .. submitted this a while ago I think there was an email from Telsa IR then 0 feedback

i am guessing they are only accepting Say - linking shares

are others comfortable with this ? started the process with Say and the want login credentials for Brokerage/IRA/401 K accounts... seems risky to me ... but what do i know ....

 

[Max Plaid]

Sadly? I for one would prefer all robots look sexy. That would definitely give a rise… to TSLA stock price. Think of the demand for such a product.

Take my money!

 

[Curt Renz]

Today is a weekly options expiration day. Not a monthly or quarterly (Triple Witching), nevertheless at the end of a quarter which increases interest.

Inspection of today’s TSLA options data makes it appear that $270 would be the most profitable target for big options writers (hedge funds & market makers) with the ability to temporarily nudge the share price.

BTW, although not far from the locations of greatest hurricane devastation, my only property damage was loss of a tree.

Macro selling appears to be making this impossible. End of quarter window undressing may be dominating.

 

[traxila]

Here's the Yahoo finance summation of the Reuters article w/ 495k deliveries est. for Q4:

Exclusive-Tesla output forecast shows jump in Q4, growth through 2023 -sources

Tesla's production forecast, if achieved, would put the EV maker on track to meet Elon Musk's goal for production in the coming quarter and put the automaker close to the scale of German luxury automaker BMW by end 2023. Musk and Tesla have a record of pointing to stretch targets the company...

finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org

I must be a bear because I do not see how we go from the 360 everyone is counting on to 495 the next quarter. A 35% + increase QoQ? No way. Totally an attempt to rip on Tesla for coming in at the mid 400s, which would be amazing.

If they deliver 395 this Q then put me in the believer column.

 

[Singuy]

I must be a bear because I do not see how we go from the 360 everyone is counting on to 495 the next quarter. A 35% + increase QoQ? No way. Totally an attempt to rip on Tesla for coming in at the mid 400s, which would be amazing.

If they deliver 395 this Q then put me in the believer column.

Yeah that's what people thought about Q2->Q3 in 2018 where Tesla went from 5k Model 3s in a Q to 53,239.

Steep part of the S curve is surprising.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Well, September lived up to its reputation as a garbage month for stocks. C'mon October, give us some love!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Now looking at this, seems like Tesla is expecting Berlin/Texas' steep part of the S curve to be beginning of Q4. If you look at Q2 2018's press release, that was their steep ramp quarter and then exited Q4 at 61k model 3s. Then for the next year they were increasing it to 70-80k of model 3 until China came online.

So the takeaway from this Reuter slide is Berlin/Texas are going to hit 5000/week somewhere this upcoming quarter that will help propel Tesla to hit a production rate of almost 500k/q. Then Berlin/Texas begin to hit the top of the S curve for the Y for the rest of next year(*note cybertruck is not part of this production chart, it's only for 3/Y...so this is not TOTAL vehicle production, just 3/Y).

I guess when I plug the numbers to say

Q1 - 520k
Q2 - 540k
Q3 - 550k
Q4 - 600k

Plus 100k S/X

Then I get a total of 2.31 million. Added in something like 40k of Cybertruck/Semi to bring it to 2.35 million. That's about 57% YoY growth if they do 1.5 million for 2022. So I guess it actually adds up.

But still, 495k of JUST 3/Y for Q4 still seems pretty nuts. Add in 25k of S/X and that's a 530k quarter.

 

[thx1139]

I must be a bear because I do not see how we go from the 360 everyone is counting on to 495 the next quarter. A 35% + increase QoQ? No way. Totally an attempt to rip on Tesla for coming in at the mid 400s, which would be amazing.

If they deliver 395 this Q then put me in the believer column.

I think we need a sign going into Q4 that Berlin and Texas ramps are accelerating. If they are only at like 1200-1500 per week this past week then I dont see the 495 number.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I must be a bear because I do not see how we go from the 360 everyone is counting on to 495 the next quarter. A 35% + increase QoQ? No way. Totally an attempt to rip on Tesla for coming in at the mid 400s, which would be amazing.

If they deliver 395 this Q then put me in the believer column.

Well, we might get a surprise out of Fremont for Q3 and they produced somewhere around 142k-150k. We also might get a surprise on Berlin/Austin production from the Sept since that ramp is starting. I guess Q3 P/D numbers will give a lot of insight.

 

[larmor]

Somewhat related, for the past month since the most recent software update on my 2016 auto pilot 1, model X, lane changes, initiated by turn signal, are intuitively smooth, they are not slow, and they are not fast or sharp. It is actually quite surprising. It feels as if I am doing the driving. I would extrapolate that if my lane changes on 2016 auto pilot are now noticeably smoother and human like, then I can only imagine what FSD is like now.

 

[MartinAustin]

I must be a bear because I do not see how we go from the 360 everyone is counting on to 495 the next quarter. A 35% + increase QoQ? No way. Totally an attempt to rip on Tesla for coming in at the mid 400s, which would be amazing.

If they deliver 395 this Q then put me in the believer column.

They do have two massive new gigafactories ramping up, both of which are singularly dedicated to producing what is about to be the world's fastest-selling car. Doubling the number of factories producing cars. Does that not count for anything? It's not exactly like the phrase "all things being equal" is in play

 

[hobbes]

I'll take the time to summarize. Dave stated at least twice that IR can't release any new information so there is not much meat to the 10 minutes.

When he asked about the 495k target for Q4 quoted by Reuters he said they walked him through the maths of still reaching the volume goal for 2022 full year because they were not allowed to answer directly. That comes down to a few percent less than 495k. I´d take that as a yes. Otherwise, they could just have said "no comment" or "data not coming from Tesla" without releasing new numbers.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, we might get a surprise out of Fremont for Q3 and they produced somewhere around 142k-150k. We also might get a surprise on Berlin/Austin production from the Sept since that ramp is starting. I guess Q3 P/D numbers will give a lot of insight.

We were told relatively recently that Tesla finally had enough battery supply. Perhaps the lag between whatever lead to those comments and actually getting them into place will end in Q4.

 

[GOVA]

Would like to point out that James Douma was confidently and almost condescendingly dead wrong when he said this the original picture of the hands was just a pretty render and had nothing to do with the robot.

Douma is nowhere near some like sandy Munroe and the only reason he has relevance is because Dave gave him a platform to speak.

Can we also vote for trash post of the week?

 

[lafrisbee]

Would like to point out that James Douma was confidently and almost condescendingly dead wrong when he said this the original picture of the hands was just a pretty render and had nothing to do with the robot.

Douma is nowhere near some like sandy Munroe and the only reason he has relevance is because Dave gave him a platform to speak.

What you have concluded is completely against what I believe. I have LISTENED to Douma. And even while I don't know the subject Douma makes it understandable to me on more than a layman's level. And thus is relevant... and very bright. He may be wrong often, but he comes from a stable base.
And now my EDIT: While Sandy Munroe has passed his prime. He seems nonsensical when he starts mumbling about how his personal preferences are worth mentioning..as well as his wife's. I got what he was telling us a couple of times, but more often he talks of the same thing over and over. Munroe comes up with some catchy phrases; I will give him that. And he has a good company... but he himself is getting a bigger cowboy hat and shinier boots while having less ability to ride.

 

[lascavarian]

are others comfortable with this ?

Not here. Who is SAY to be the king of security? Seems insanely stupid to give this idea a nanoseconds thought. Don’t put your account info at risk for no good reason.

Tesla seems to be able to handle my shareholder voting so this SAY thing seems poorly designed. Why not simply use a shareholder code as validation.

 

[Todd Burch]

I don’t suspect the

I think we need a sign going into Q4 that Berlin and Texas ramps are accelerating. If they are only at like 1200-1500 per week this past week then I dont see the 495 number.

I think Berlin (or was it Austin?) will be adding a 3rd shift soon. That alone will increase output by 50%.

 

[unk45]

Does any of that really play into this? Fact of the matter is, 43.61% of TSLA is held by institutional investors. Other players are at:

AAPL 58.67%
MSFT 70.45%
GOOG 63%
CVX 71.2%
NVDA 63.61%

TSLA will quite obviously need to start moving closer to those percentages over the next 6 months as absurd earnings evolve and growth continues.




I was around for all that mess. Today is nothing like that.



I'm sure we'll screw something up, but we ain't there yet.

1. The point I made is only related to US insurance companies who had
$1,2 trillion in US equities at year end 2021.

https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/capital-markets-special-reports-asset-mix-ye2021.pdf

2. that excluded pension funds managed by insurance companies so just for reference:

Life insurance, P&C insurance, and pension fund investment allocations,
2017
Source: SNL (S&P Market Intelligence), Willis Towers Watson, EY Analysis
3. Reportedly institutional investors account for >80% of trading volume.

Insurance companies and pension funds they manage account for ~12% of all US trading activity and ~20% of all stock ownership.

Nearly all our attention is one Market makers, analysts and their abuses.

Were Tesla to achieve investment grade all those insurance companies (mostly casualties) and all those pension funds will think themselves enables to buy TSLA. All that has little to do with fact and much to do with deniability (i.e. it was investment grade, how could I have known?).

Investment grade has nothing to do with TSLA debt. It has to do with stabilizing institutional investor holdings. Insurance companies accomplish much of that.


Remember , 85% of all trading volume si from Institutional Investors. Larger insurance holdings reduce that volatility. No panacea, to be sure, but it helps.