Nah, think they are clearly saying they are done with this EOQ desperation pandemonium delivery push. They should always have plenty of cars in process of delivery at the EOQ from now on. It really doesn’t matter and at some point it won’t matter for the SP either.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
We need to wait until the 19th. There are solid grounds for optimism on that score, not least due to TE deliveries. I will not speculate on how close our model mavens might be, partly because several unusual events have happened. FX fluctuations probably will have been positive, but even there the evolution of delivered prices vs current prices has moved quickly enough during the quarter that we cannot really know the effects. Of equal significance production costs will have been negatively influenced by energy costs in Germany, positively influenced by yields from all those new solar panels in Austin and Sparks. Further there has been some yield from grid services including the California test.
I admit I had expected slightly higher deliveries despite obvious weather challenges and limited car shipping capacities. As several people observed Tesla was shipping from Shanghai during September with almost no probability of actual delivery happening the quarter.
Another three potentially significant factors, two of which have not even been discussed to much extent.
First is used car sales, which without question are now material, especially high profit for lease returns of 2018 and 2019 year leases.
Second is services. Those now include Premium Connectivity (every car ordered since July 2018 has only one year free, Supercharger revenues from Tesla and non-Tesla vehicles, Insurance and FSD as subscription too. At this time we simply do not know the effects of all of these since no detail has been released. I think it is very likely that all this will be significantly positive for 3rd quarter and accelerate readily thereafter.
The third is Tesla Energy. The quarter saw major deliveries of Lathrop produced Megapacks, the quantity of which was quite visually impressive from time to time. The other grid services and VPP revenues mentioned above are almost certain to be positive but we have no practical way to measure that.
Despite missing some deliveries we hade hoped for, the factors above should have a measurable boost in the bottom line. Hopefully they'll begin to make some disclosures, so they can prudently be included in models.
I admit I had expected slightly higher deliveries despite obvious weather challenges and limited car shipping capacities. As several people observed Tesla was shipping from Shanghai during September with almost no probability of actual delivery happening the quarter.
Another three potentially significant factors, two of which have not even been discussed to much extent.
First is used car sales, which without question are now material, especially high profit for lease returns of 2018 and 2019 year leases.
Second is services. Those now include Premium Connectivity (every car ordered since July 2018 has only one year free, Supercharger revenues from Tesla and non-Tesla vehicles, Insurance and FSD as subscription too. At this time we simply do not know the effects of all of these since no detail has been released. I think it is very likely that all this will be significantly positive for 3rd quarter and accelerate readily thereafter.
The third is Tesla Energy. The quarter saw major deliveries of Lathrop produced Megapacks, the quantity of which was quite visually impressive from time to time. The other grid services and VPP revenues mentioned above are almost certain to be positive but we have no practical way to measure that.
Despite missing some deliveries we hade hoped for, the factors above should have a measurable boost in the bottom line. Hopefully they'll begin to make some disclosures, so they can prudently be included in models.
I love that record P and D is a miss, but legacy auto having a quarter where they produce a few more than street expected, but still down 20% YoY is considered a beat. Talk about myopia.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
We got a sudden email to take delivery of Y (booked early this year and expected in Nov). They gave us 2 days and since we didn’t - they put us on hold and moved on. Our issue was high lease numbers rather than tax credit.
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
That's the hardware. Imagine the software packages that could be offered for each business case. It won't be 15k any more in a few years.
The plural of octopus in Greek nowadays is χταπόδια which would be octapodia or Optimodia so why don’t we stick with Optimii. I will.
The frustrating part is that Tesla will guide for say 50%. WS will ignore that and set their expectations at say 30%. Then when Tesla comes in at 45% WS will say "oh they missed expectations".
Hmmmm, does not compute.
Every time Gordo is on the stock goes up.
Are you saying there is a chance ?
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Nothing would surprise me in this market.
I sense a Prius in your past. So when Tesla inevitably branches into the bus segment, will the plural be busii?
Jk, I'm totally fine w/ Optimii, Optimae, whatever.I thought the consensus was that some combination of free drugs and Ready Player One were the answerOh, I think humans will find ways to entertain themselves...
I do think EPS will beat after the ER, unless there are lots of EPS revisions between now and then which is very likely.
Financially 343K delivered is a great number for us long term. Short term the market might react badly.
So, why isnt the story, "despite poor macros and down quarter in Q2, Tesla rebounds and reports record breaking quarter in Q3"?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
As has been pointed out Optimus is Latin based not Greek so that reasoning doesn't follow.
Q2 was an outlier though. Look at it like this: Q3 2022 was only 11% higher deliveries than Q1 2022. With two new factories ramping plus production upgrades in Shanghai I think many expected a higher increase in 6 months than that.
We seem to have had an all-time record Model S/X production:
Q3 2022 19935/18672 prod/delivery
Previous record:
Q4 2019 17933/19450
Q2 2022 was 16411/16162, so revenue and profit-wise this should add something extra.
Q4 should have record S/X production and delivery, with very good ASP because all S/X delivered in EU will be Plaid.
Q3 2022 19935/18672 prod/delivery
Previous record:
Q4 2019 17933/19450
Q2 2022 was 16411/16162, so revenue and profit-wise this should add something extra.
Q4 should have record S/X production and delivery, with very good ASP because all S/X delivered in EU will be Plaid.
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