Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

I’m not the biggests fan of pluralizing adjectives, in English or in Latin. Never besties with such neologisms. But the now-English noun, “optimum”, does have a fine and logical plural: “optima”, which is widely used in mathematics and economics.

optimum is not optimus, but thanks for the info.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Q4 will be the one guys. Really this time!

I am a super-bull but couldn’t help myself. lol

I anticipate this will give us a very nice buying opportunity before the earnings report that blows everyone’s socks off, ours included.

We thought Q2 was the last “bad” numbers quarter
Finally Q3 will be the last “bad “ number because of delivery logistic
I would have loved to see and incredible beat for TSLA not to follow the SPY macro going for the next leg lower in this strong bear trend.

I would not be surprised to see $200 in the next few weeks with the macro and wallstreet read on the P&D numbers.

I am ready to buy at $200 like there is no tomorrow

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I don’t understand why people are disappointed in the numbers. ~20% growth compared to 1Q22.

 

[cab]

I can see the "DEMAND COLLAPSING!!" headlines now...sigh.

I do wish Tesla would sandbag a bit more on their own forecasts. I have a feeling it's going to be a long 2023...(get it? "Long"...man, I crack me up).

 

[mongo]

Exactly. Many people expect 50%+ growth every year, but one year might be 40% and the next might be 60%. The average yearly expected growth is 50%, so some years will likely be less than that. Like 2022 will probably be. Q2 shutdown in China was just too big a hit.

Q2 of this year was rough.
2022 vs 2021 (% increase/ decrease):

	Production	Delivery
Q3	54%	42%
Q2	25%	27%
Q1	69%	68%
First 3Qs	49%	45%
2021 vs 2022 (so far)	0%	-3%

 

[GOVA]

This place will never cease to amaze me. Record Q and everybody is seeing doom and gloom.

 

[ThisStockGood]

My long-awaited contribution to this board regarding Q3 numbers celebration. It’s getting cringe, I know.

Edit: replace “P&D Q3” with “Wall street analysts” and “Wall Street analyst” with “TSLA bulls”

 

[Knightshade]

This place will never cease to amaze me. Record Q and everybody is seeing doom and gloom.

You should see the stuff toilet boy and other Q are posting right now then- it's downright puppies and sunshine in here in comparison.

Guess which side most of the news on this will come down on?

 

[MABMAB]

Man o man, was everyone that has something to sell (super follower, subscribe, like, whatever) just so wrong on numbers? imagine that? Now they get to sell some more splaining this away...

ignore them all. Stick to the plan.

 

[Xepa777]

Q4 will be the one guys. Really this time!

I am a super-bull but couldn’t help myself. lol

I anticipate this will give us a very nice buying opportunity before the earnings report that blows everyone’s socks off, ours included.

(Quarter four arrives)

“It’s okay guys! Everyone was deferring delivery for the ene tax credits next year. Q1 2023 will be ”

(Quarter one arrives)

“It’s okay guys! I can’t believe the tax credits somehow screwed over tesla. What a corrupt government. The numbers will recover once tesla loses their price. Still 30% gross margin!!!”

(Quarter two arrives)

“It’s okay guys! We’re in a major recession where everything is getting annihilated, to be up 30% for the year is incredible!

(Quarter three arrives)

“It’s okay guys! Cybertruck finally came out and they need the cells, hence why deliveries are lower now! Don’t you want those badass free advertisements driving on the road?”

(Quarter four arrives)

“This is GOOD because all tesla cars are transitioning to 4680 batteries, so naturally there will be a dip in production.”

There. Just gave you a year worth of excuses for underperformance.

Yes we’re here for the longterm (been shareholder since 2013) so these blips don’t mean much to me. However, I would like to use this as a broader commentary against all the (1) hype that influencers (whether on YouTube or even here on TMC) give about estimates. You know who you are. Assuming best case scenario. Having comments like “I have a sneaking suspicion that tesla could have a huge surprise with x or y based off this observation” (2) how people here take best case scenario and codify it, while vilifying people with more “negative” viewpoints.

Remember when gigs Texas was being built and people were hyping “wow they could start even earlier than Shanghai!!! Look at this drone footage from this piece of equipment being sent”. Welll…yah.

Just like how I’ve been harvesting downvotes from Reddit defending tesla after AI day, I harvest downvotes here from the blind optimism because I’m not afraid to point out bullshit when I see it. and hopefully people here can absorb contrasting viewpoints, otherwise we’re no better than the flipside of realtesla.

 

[JRP3]

This place will never cease to amaze me. Record Q and everybody is seeing doom and gloom.

You think the stock will go up tomorrow?

 

[mongo]

You think the stock will go up tomorrow?

Depends, how forward looking is the market, three weeks or 3 months?

 

[SmokyPeat]

100% odds CNBC has Gordo on tomorrow.

 

[JRP3]

Depends, how forward looking is the market, three weeks or 3 months?

Or 3 hours?

 

[NicoV]

UBI by itself isn't an answer. People need a purpose in life otherwise they generally become depressed and discontented. Money doesn't actually bring happiness just by itself. Figuring out something useful to do for the average or below average person is what is needed.

Absolutely! This will be a challenge.

 

[insaneoctane]

The delivery shortfall is very temporary as those 20k+ vehicles are en route to customers. In fact Q4 numbers may be boosted by spillover from these Q3 sales. full year delivery numbers should be on track if Tesla sorts out the delivery transportation bottleneck.

But will Q4 be boosted? By definition, Q4 will likely have 20K+ en route for 2023Q1, no?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

We thought Q2 was the last “bad” numbers quarter
Finally Q3 will be the last “bad “ number because of delivery logistic
I would have loved to see and incredible beat for TSLA not to follow the SPY macro going for the next leg lower in this strong bear trend.

I would not be surprised to see $200 in the next few weeks with the macro and wallstreet read on the P&D numbers.

I am ready to buy at $200 like there is no tomorrow

It won't go to 200, that's too low. In my opinion, high chance of 255, Moderate chance of 240, some chance of 225.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Can the deliveries miss be partly due to people putting their orders on hold until next year because they're angling for the tax credit?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So EPS should still be a beat, no? And a drop to $250 brings us to a PE of.....70?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Can the deliveries miss be partly due to people putting their orders on hold until next year because they're angling for the tax credit?

No. It's due to exports from Giga Shanghai in transit.