Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Most important snippet from the P&D report:
"As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks. In Q3, we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter."

Basically, starting to unwind the end of Q push of the past, simply because it's hard to find enough capacity to transport that many autos in that short time period.

 

[Mengy]

Production is what matters, and that ramped appropriately.

From a stock price valuation though, deliveries are what matters. I feel these numbers might impact the share price negatively on Monday.

 

[The Accountant]

I'm happy with 366k production. Deliveries at 343 shows that 22k were en route at end of Q. With a hurricane on the east coast USA and a Typhoon affecting Shanghai, I'm fine with that.

Production is what matters, and that ramped appropriately.

Wording in P&D report indicates they are starting to undo the wave delivery pattern. Will help to bring down delivery costs.
In the short term we will get misleading bear commentary but it will nice to see the month end delivery mad rush end.

 

[Tony73]

It's almost exactly what I expected for production, but I also expected higher deliveries than that. Still a new record quarter, but this will make hitting the Q4 numbers needed for 50% YoY much more difficult. I feel we'll come in a bit under 50% growth for 2022, maybe 45-48%. Which of course isn't terrible!

Tesla never guided for 50% YoY growth. They guided for 50% average growth over the next few years. Last year greatly exceeded 50% and this year may very well come in around 40%. The two year average is still over 50%

 

[mongo]

Basically:
10 percent higher deliveries than previous record. Q4 2021
20 percent higher production than previous record. Q1 2022

 

[bkp_duke]

Don’t get me wrong, the numbers don’t affect my valuation.

But you can bet wall st is going to grossly overreact to these numbers. Wouldn’t be surprised by a 10% down day…..especially if macros are weak

Honestly, I was expecting Wall St to pull their usual shenanigans regardless of the report. It's pretty much become a constant.

Publicly, they bash Tesla. Privately, they buy every dip.

 

[JustMe]

It's almost exactly what I expected for production, but I also expected higher deliveries than that. Still a new record quarter, but this will make hitting the Q4 numbers needed for 50% YoY much more difficult. I feel we'll come in a bit under 50% growth for 2022, maybe 45-48%. Which of course isn't terrible!

The delivery shortfall is very temporary as those 20k+ vehicles are en route to customers. In fact Q4 numbers may be boosted by spillover from these Q3 sales. full year delivery numbers should be on track if Tesla sorts out the delivery transportation bottleneck.

 

[wtlloyd]

Who was expecting only 343k delivered?

*Edit to add: that's not quite what I said


It was discussed here and elsewhere that deliveries were uncharacteristically being shifted out of Shanghai to export, in the last weeks of the quarter. The possible reduced deliveries result because of increased in-transit vehicles was anticipated.

 

[phantasms]

Q4 will be the one guys. Really this time!

I am a super-bull but couldn’t help myself. lol

I anticipate this will give us a very nice buying opportunity before the earnings report that blows everyone’s socks off, ours included.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Most important snippet from the P&D report:
"As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks. In Q3, we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter."

Basically, starting to unwind the end of Q push of the past, simply because it's hard to find enough capacity to transport that many autos in that short time period.

Reliving to see that. The lower than anticipated deliverables doesn't reflect a lack of demand or increase in unsold inventory. Simply a capacity issue associated with shipping them. BFD, those in-transit or ready for transit will move in the next couple of weeks.

 

[AudubonB]

The release specifically states those 22,000 vehicles have been ordered and are en route to purchasers, similar to what @bkp_duke writes, but in this investment environment I also suspect Monday is going to be a…..buying opportunity kind of a day.

….as @phantasms also wrote while I was typing.

 

[bkp_duke]

The release specifically states those 22,000 vehicles have been ordered and are en route to purchasers, similar to what @bkp_duke writes, but in this investment environment I also suspect Monday is going to be a…..buying opportunity kind of a day.

Yep, I'll be buying some more LEAPS on Monday. Without selling TSLA shares to do so. Time to use up that quarterly bonus check.

 

[wtlloyd]

Yikes, tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath

Too late, tub already filled last couple weeks

 

[SmokyPeat]

Can't wait for the slew of trashy headlines. Oh well. Wish I had some dry powder.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla never guided for 50% YoY growth. They guided for 50% average growth over the next few years. Last year greatly exceeded 50% and this year may very well come in around 40%. The two year average is still over 50%

Exactly. Many people expect 50%+ growth every year, but one year might be 40% and the next might be 60%. The average yearly expected growth is 50%, so some years will likely be less than that. Like 2022 will probably be. Q2 shutdown in China was just too big a hit.

I'm still happy with these numbers. It's good production progress QoQ, and with 20K+ cars in transit the reality isn't as bad as the numbers make it seem. Plus we did have a few weeks of shutdowns in China for Q3 again, thus Q4 should likely be much higher.

 

[betstarship]

$20.5B auto revenue quarter if ASP is $60k!

$56.16B in this year with only account for Q3 auto sales!

Edit: 2021 Revenue was... $53B!

 

[Favguy]

The delivery shortfall is very temporary as those 20k+ vehicles are en route to customers. In fact Q4 numbers may be boosted by spillover from these Q3 sales. full year delivery numbers should be on track if Tesla sorts out the delivery transportation bottleneck.

Exactly, it's not as if they're going to be sitting around gathering dust without any buyers, they're in transit and will just boost next quarters delivery numbers. We all know wall street will have their fun short term...

 

[betstarship]

If I did the math right... 50% of $53B 2021 revenue is $26.5B...divide by $60k ASP and Tesla would need:

~441k cars delivered in Q4 to hit 50% y-o-y revenue growth from 2021.

 

[insaneoctane]

It’s going to change the lives of the people currently doing unskilled labor even more. They won’t be able to compete and will lose their jobs. If they’re lucky they may get a universal basic income.

Fast forward to Optimus actually displacing humans....So in order to pay for the inevitable increase in taxation that will be levied on the working population to pay for UBI, I'd suggest buying more TSLA

Wonder if governments offering UBI will try to fund it by taxing Tesla, the robotic worker manufacturers, who replaces humans?

 

[wtlloyd]

Well, Reuter's up first with the sad news sans context

Tesla's logistical challenges overshadow record deliveries

The latest deliveries fell far short of Tesla's production, which is rare for an automaker that has seen its deliveries higher or similar to production in many of its recent quarters.

www.reuters.com