I don't think call/put walls and Elon tweets have any as much potency as the FOMC....
One catalyst would be if Tesla delivered atleast a dozen Semis in Dec. ...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
One catalyst would be if Tesla delivered atleast a dozen Semis in Dec. ...
My real problem with Lex is that he gets these really technical people, and Lex is supposedly one himself, and then starts talking philosophy or “the universe is a simulation” or other airy fairy crap instead of drilling into the technical stuff they could be talking about. He had Carmack in there who said he had a new angle on AGI, and Lex, who supposedly is in that field, didn’t ask him what the angle was in a 3 hour interview! I haven’t listened to the entire Karpathy interview yet, but again Karpathy says he’s interesting in AGI, and I’ll bet Lex doesn’t probe that. Sigh.
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I’m comfortable waiting until after tomorrow’s in-person discussions before considering accelerating any selling, and yes, ceasing selling or even re-buying are always also possible outcomes post discussions. My ideal world hope is actually for the latter…time will tell.
100% agree that there is no value to be found in the same people saying the same thing over and over, especially when what they are saying is absolutes r.e. the future. I personally find the greatest value in listening to those who can expand my understanding of the various possible outcomes / futures, and what the leading indicators of each may be, to invest where the future is heading towards before it is widely obvious to most. FWIW, I suspect we are much more closely aligned than it may seem, but I will freely acknowledge that my discussions style often does not work well for short, non-verbal interactions.
Krugerrand
Meow
Listen up dog, I’m only going to repeat this for the eighty third time - we’re dealing with crooks, thieves, and bandits.
The only rationality they are focussed on is the one that makes them money. All this talk about when this happens and so and so says this and Elon starts acting live Mary Barra and blah, blah, blah THEN the SP will go up is just how people get through the day when money is a central focus of their life. It’s meaningless except inside their heads.
As long as the company is moving along and @The Accountant ’s charts, diagrams and posts remain as boring as ever, it’s all good. We’ll be good. Except if you keep thinking you can beat the bad guys with your options plays. I say this with much love as I look forward to kicking your a$$ when you invade; you’re not smart enough.
Sorry to be a downer here, but delivery of 12 semis on 1 Dec will likely not move the market. At this point this is largely expected and we are where we are. Tesla will need to first show that the semi will contribute materially to the bottom line in the near term and layout a plan for the ramp. WS is not going to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt in a bear market until it first proves that the semi will bring measurable value.
Sorry to add to the China discussion … Tesla and China have an unwritten gentleman’s agreement IMHO. Chinese industry gets to observe and yes, copy, all of Tesla advanced manufacturing techniques, and Tesla gets to have a very efficient high volume factory with minimal government interference. Since Tesla innovates so quickly, Tesla is both able to stay ahead of the Chinese copy cat competition, and still continue to provide value to China.
And when I say copy, I don’t mean like an exact replica of a Model S (although smaller companies will do that, but no one cares about them), I mean copy the manufacturing techniques which is far more valuable. The first auto company to try to use gigacasting after Tesla was a Chinese company I believe.
Is this a devil‘s bargain? Not from Tesla‘s perspective since this will indeed accelerate the world towards a sustainable future.
And when I say copy, I don’t mean like an exact replica of a Model S (although smaller companies will do that, but no one cares about them), I mean copy the manufacturing techniques which is far more valuable. The first auto company to try to use gigacasting after Tesla was a Chinese company I believe.
Is this a devil‘s bargain? Not from Tesla‘s perspective since this will indeed accelerate the world towards a sustainable future.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The nature of copying is that you are always making a copy of a product that was developed previously. China still can't match a Model 3 made in 2017 because it takes time to copy large, complex objects. When you copy a product you do not go through the learning experience of developing that product so you cannot develop the next generation of that product, you have to wait for the innovators to advance the technology. Tesla's primary product innovations are the production processes and these take even longer to copy and get to market. The ICE vehicle industry had become so stagnant that copying was a viable way to compete at scale. It will take many years for the EV industry to become that stagnant.
And lest anyone forget, the mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy and transport. By giving other manufacturers and investors something to copy, you are essentially succeeding at your primary mission. People who are worried about copying are either not on board with the mission or they have an exaggerated view of how far copying can get another company in such a dynamic industry.
Since Tesla continually innovates that would kill the golden goose, and I am sure Chinese industry knows this. Tesla has a long and robust future ahead of it in China. Remember that China wants to compete worldwide. They want Chinese cars to be bought at scale in the US. China will allow Tesla to sell in China if that means Chinese industry gets to learn Tesla manufacturing so that it can sell cars into the huge US market.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Or did Apple have a realization: "If legacy ICE manufacturers can blame declining sales on COVID production issues, and simultaneously raise prices and decrease supply, then maybe it's not too late to copy their plan in China"
I think that *reality* is close to this, yes! However, I also think that Xi’s perception in the future will be that it is no longer true in *his* China. Whether that disconnect between reality and his perception happens within a year or a decade is certainly unknown, but it will be his perception that determines what actions he does, not reality.
So why Tesla and not every Western company?
Tesla China builds their local manufacturing and EV tech, gooses their battery industry with extra demand, raises international profile and shows that China can build cutting edge vehicles, and the profits "stay in china" right? There may be a risk but it's probably less than most other businesses that operate there.
larmor
Active Member
Disagree: TMC'ers expect a semi, but the actual world has no concept of an all electric semi. When it hauls around full loads at range then the economics of operation will be easy to calculate. Price is all ready set based on volume production, and tesla's secret sauce is r&d on manufacture and production. The actual world-- which is all of us all breathe in fumes from cars and trucks, and for me, an EV truck cannot come soon enough. The market is based on projections, and semi EV is a great example of operational expense reduction and sales should easily be projected out to be sold out. Also, huge railroad worker strike coming just to add some spice...
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sure but that will take time and will not happen on Dec 1st, which was his point. I do expect/hope for a small bump on the actual delivery event.
It *is* every Western company. The variations from company to company are merely in timeline and form, which are driven more by perceived political concerns than by anything else.
Yes but what about the semi-competition?
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
From the competition is coming department. Hive mind at reddit says they are running commercials just to stop people from buying EVs that are available today.
Trying to get consumers to wait longer (and not buy a Tesla).From the competition is coming department. Hive mind at reddit says they are running commercials just to stop people from buying EVs that are available today.
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