Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

Distance measurements coming to cars without ultrasonics:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1587643617358798848

 

[traxila]

From the fourth Tweet in the thread

https://twitter.com/x/status/1588124477501628416

This reads much better. If we had a whole week of limited production, that could easily add up to 10K less. Let's assume another 10K uncounted, we are looking at 80K production for October, with an estimated 90K per month coming in for Nov and Dec. Shanghai should be coming in at 260K for the quarter, with an outside shot at 270 or so (trying to be a little conservative here ).

Fremont coming in at 140. Berlin and Austin at 50 combined.

260 + 140 + 50 = 450K production in Q4. With a best case scenario in the mid 460s. And no way in hell would that 495 number be in play.

Which is definitely above all estimates, including Troy's, although based on past history he will probably crank that up as Dec 31 approaches assuming no macro events.

These are actually fantastic numbers and growth, problem is no one is in the mood to agree in the market. Thankfully, Tesla is not dependent at all on the market mood thanks to their cash pile. All Tesla can do this point is continue to grow, which they have done better that any large manufacturer in history, and hope the world doesn't implode.

We do need a new Giga announcement soon, or the idea of 50% YOY growth looks sketchy past 2024.

 

[MartinAustin]

Genuine question - where did the 14k come from?

The company installed solar panels on Heinrich's house

 

[Unpilot]

Some good news this morning.....Nikola is up 3%/s

 

[bkp_duke]

Twitter overhang done
Elon selling none
FMOC meeting gone
Now we have AOC vs Elon

Stock might rally, said someone
Sometimes I feel all alone
In the dark, holding on
To TSLA, my precious one

Was wondering why we are down pre-market.

I see this nugget of poetry, now I know.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Maybe obvious to others, but I am dumbfounded that Apple makes almost half the revenue selling only iPads that Tesla does selling all 4 models of their cars!

Did you realize the Tesla numbers are for one quarter while the Apple numbers are for a whole year?

 

[bkp_duke]

Seems to me that the FED is doing everything to destroy the labour market, while the administration is harping-on about full-employment, seems quite a disconnect - although to be fair, the FED should not, in theory, be influenced by politicians...

That being said, if the previous president was still here, we would not be following this same path, I'm pretty sure of that. Which also makes me wonder, if the GOP win big in the mid-terms, will it cause a change in market sentiment, any thoughts on that?

Labor and supply chains are far more a policy issue than they are a monetary one. The current government (both sides - takes 2 to tango) is not interested in solving the labor problem with policy, so that leaves the Fed trying to do it with their blunt instrument of rate hikes. It's not the right tool for the job, but it's the only tool they have.

 

[Singuy]

Is that Justin Hammer?

View attachment 870495

More like Leeroy Jenkins.

 

[Mengy]

260 + 140 + 50 = 450K production in Q4. With a best case scenario in the mid 460s. And no way in hell would that 495 number be in play.

I'm guessing we'll end Q4 more like:

230K Shanghai
135K Fremont
45K Berlin + Austin

230 + 135 + 45 = 410K deliveries for Q4, which would be a 41% YoY increase in deliveries, with about 1,317,000 cars delivered for 2022.

Now, production numbers would be slightly higher of course, but I'm modeling for what impacts the stock price. My hunch is total production for Q4 will end up around the 440K mark.

Again, this is just what I'm expecting, but I do tend more to the conservative side than most here on TMC. My decades in manufacturing engineering has made me under-expect when it comes to volume production ramp increases. Especially for products as complex as cars.

 

[traxila]

I'm guessing we'll end Q4 more like:

230K Shanghai
135K Fremont
45K Berlin + Austin

230 + 135 + 45 = 410K deliveries for Q4, which would be a 41% YoY increase in deliveries, with about 1,317,000 cars delivered for 2022.

Now, production numbers would be slightly higher of course, but I'm modeling for what impacts the stock price. My hunch is total production for Q4 will end up around the 440K mark.

Again, this is just what I'm expecting, but I do tend more to the conservative side than most here on TMC. My decades in manufacturing engineering has made me under-expect when it comes to volume production ramp increases. Especially for products as complex as cars.

I was specifically talking about production, so we are very close you and I, at 440 and 450.

 

[Singuy]

Did you realize the Tesla numbers are for one quarter while the Apple numbers are for a whole year?

At first I was like Apple makes 100B net profit in a quarter WTF? The comparison is definitely apples to oranges.

 

[ZachF]

 

[larmor]

At first I was like Apple makes 100B net profit in a quarter WTF? The comparison is definitely apples to oranges.

comparison is apples to cars (FTFY)

 

[Cosmacelf]

There doesn’t seem to be an appreciation here for just how much the fed is likely to be raising interest rates. Maybe a lot of people here aren’t old enough, but rates were in the 6% area in the late 1990s during the initial dot com boom and life was fine. Admittedly a lot of things are different today, like high inflation (which only makes high interest rates even more likely).

Anyways, here’s a fairly quick video warning that rates are going significantly higher. Having said that, it also points out that the US is hoovering up capital from around the world since our economy is still consuming. This will help the stock market at least not crash. And it makes an interesting prediction about Germany and possible capital controls coming in their future.

 

[Drax7]

We’ve had historically low interest rates for more than a decade, but this period of historically high inflation only started in the last year or so. Now we’re on the tail end (hopefully) of a world-wide pandemic where governments responded by printing massive amounts of money to stimulate the economy and avoid a recession, but now we’re raising rates to bring down inflation even if it causes a recession. What? I’m so confused. I find it much easier and more enjoyable to focus on SpaceX’s and Tesla’s execution and watch in amazement at what they accomplish. These are exciting times!

Let’s go full out to avoid a recession, now let’s go full out to create a recession.
What an inept government. And then we lecture other countries ……..

 

[elasalle]

The Tesla Santa is gonna be driving a Semi this year

 

[ammulder]

So this morning the NASDAQ is slammed, Shanghai wholesale numbers are underwhelming, we're going into MMD hour, and TSLA is green.

It's like the Twilight Zone over here.

 

[ThisStockGood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1588154105511526402

 

[JSML]

So this morning the NASDAQ is slammed, Shanghai wholesale numbers are underwhelming, we're going into MMD hour, and TSLA is green.

It's like the Twilight Zone over here.

What is driving the automotive sector outperformance?

Lucid, Rivian, Ford, Tesla all up and Nasdaq is -1.5%

 

[ammulder]

What is driving the automotive sector outperformance?

LOL, I see what you did there...