Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

Because it is not to cover losses, it is for people who trade as a business/ income stream.
You declare in tax year X that you will be using mark to market in tax year X+1 and lock in the basis of all your holdings.
It says you declare a year prior, April 2023 is tax year 2022, the year prior to 2023.

pros aren’t subject to same wash sale rules and have more flexibility with qualifying tax lots

bunch of resources, but this was just one near top on google search for professional trader vs investor status - Professional Trader Versus Investor in Securities Status | GamburgCPA

 

[Tommy O]

Well, I guess marriage counseling is better than Twitter or politics, but I can’t say I was expecting that.

 

[wipster]

You know, other than the great discussions with knowledgeable TMC members, there are times when I wonder why I'm paying $80 a year to support this club/forum...

 

[EVDRVN]

You know... putting aside the 1000 year gaff, given that Cali

I hope you are not a native Californian "Cali" ? Not as bad as Elon still saying 110/220 on Twitter which says quite a bit for a person calling themselves an ingineer selling EVs and leading charging infrastructure.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Back to stock value expectations. I think P/E will stagnate or worse, continue to erode until more than one of the following are available and have positive reception...
(1) FSD for all payees that works far, FAR better than the Beta test SW,
(2) Cybertruck volume shipments enthusiastically received.
(3) Semi shipping to > more than the soft drink folks and truckers jacked & pumped.
Bot is years in the future but could have an enormous impact if it works commercially and affordably this decade.
Working in the factory will get US excited but we are not the stock market.

You realize P/E could stagnate in the 60’s and TSLA would still be back in the 300’s after Q4 earnings right? That’s what 450k deliveries in Q4 would do to earnings.

There should be a rule here that if you state you think P/E will stagnate or compress further, that you list A) what you think the P/E will go down to and B) the time frame for which you think the P/E will be compressed and C) how that would translate to share price when factoring in earnings over that timeframe.

Otherwise, it’s a post without merit and any practical information. There’s been plenty of post here that state they’re worried about further P/E compression or stagnation for the next couple of years…..which would translate to a TTM P/E in the teens.

And my response to that is a big old

 

[ElectricIAC]

I hope you are not a native Californian. "Cali" ? Not as bad as Elon still saying 110/220 on Twitter which says quite a bit for a person calling themselves an ingineer selling EVs and leading charging infrastructure.

Volts?

 

[Singuy]

Folks, take a moment to watch some 10.69.3 videos like the latest from Omar and Kim (I took a few too many notes with timestamps so you can easily see highlights, areas of improvement, reasoning why and how to possibly fix)

TL-DR; It is becoming pretty clear that wide release is imminent.

This trajectory finder being on NN is pretty new and needs some cycle of refinement before full release is my guess. Whole Mars even though had some engagement free drives, he found some regression in heavy traffic. Dirty Tesla found the planner wanting to go through cars for whatever reason.

 

[wipster]

I hope you are not a native Californian "Cali" ? Not as bad as Elon still saying 110/220 on Twitter which says quite a bit for a person calling themselves an ingineer selling EVs and leading charging infrastructure.

What's an ingineer? Plus, I still call it 110/220 as do many if not most of my friends, force of habit I guess, but we do know the true voltages.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I am gonna try the Rivian approach 1st.. if that doesn't work, you may be right!
As far as cheating, as long as it isn't with a TeslaQ, no worries

Yeah, I'd try the Rivian and flowers route first. Highly unlikely that you're in danger of becoming a Quckold.

 

[MP3Mike]

Not correct, go back and re-read that. I've double-checked this with my CPA.

Then I would suggest that you might want to look for a more competent CPA.

This:

"A trader must make the mark-to-market election by the original due date (not including extensions) [April 15th] of the tax return for the year prior [Year - 1] to the year for which the election becomes effective [Year].

Let's work that out for you from your quote:

• "election becomes effective [Year]" = 2022
• "tax return for the year prior [Year-1]" = 2021 Tax year
• original due date for the 2021 Tax year = 4/18/2022.

So what you are quoting is exactly what I and @mongo have been saying.

The whole point is that the IRS doesn't want you to be able to game the system and select the tax method that would result in the least amount of taxes, after the fact. You have to pick the method you are going to use for the year early in the year.

Why would you possibly file for 2022 losses by April 15th 2022? That's only 1/3 of the year so far, you have no idea what your gains/losses might be.

Nobody is saying you would. But you have to elect the mark-to-market method for the 2022 tax year by 4/18/2022, for it to start 1/1/2022. You would then file your 2022 taxes as normal in 2023, where you would claim your losses/gains.

 

[Discoducky]

This trajectory finder being on NN is pretty new and needs some cycle of refinement before full release is my guess. Whole Mars even though had some engagement free drives, he found some regression in heavy traffic. Dirty Tesla found the planner wanting to go through cars for whatever reason.

Did you read my notes?

 

[Singuy]

Did you read my notes?

Oh sorry I thought those were linked to their videos.

 

[Christine69420]

A nice weekend video from The Wolfpack Berlin showing the new Germany Phase 2 preparations well underway:

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You realize P/E could stagnate in the 60’s and TSLA would still be back in the 300’s after Q4 earnings right? That’s what 450k deliveries in Q4 would do to earnings.

There should be a rule here that if you state you think P/E will stagnate or compress further, that you list A) what you think the P/E will go down to and B) the time frame for which you think the P/E will be compressed and C) how that would translate to share price when factoring in earnings over that timeframe.

Otherwise, it’s a post without merit and any practical information. There’s been plenty of post here that state they’re worried about further P/E compression or stagnation for the next couple of years…..which would translate to a TTM P/E in the teens.

And my response to that is a big old

To add on to this…..the unfortunate reality is that TSLA has had to deal with issues outside of their control which has greatly affected their ability to increase earnings as quickly as they had planned to.

This was on full display in Q3 when earnings didn’t even beat Q1 earnings. We all understand the reasons and we all understand that as Berlin/Austin get to 5k/week, earnings will grow much faster than revenue from those factories. So we know what’s about to happen……but Q3 gave wall st all the biased headlines about peak margin they could have asked for.

So of course the P/E is going to stagnate right now. Earnings were not nearly strong enough to force the stock higher with the same P/E ratio and the earnings themselves didn’t really disprove the bear narrative.

Which is why Q4 is such a crucial make or break for both bull and bear narratives. There’s very little middle ground on practically everything - demand, production increase/capacity, margins, earnings, etc

If…..and that’s a big if, there are no production hiccups or downtimes in Q4, this will be the most pivotal quarter in Tesla’s history, at least to me and what means for Tesla’s valuation going forward

 

[thx1139]

After the first party, when about 30 people came over and everyone asked for a ride.
Btw, all the people were her friends and relatives.

When was this? A week ago, a month ago, a year ago?

 

[Off Shore]

Well, I guess marriage counseling is better than Twitter or politics, but I can’t say I was expecting that.

This thread is a research psychologist's gold mine (and a clinical psychologist's nightmare).

 

[wipster]

To add on to this…..the unfortunate reality is that TSLA has had to deal with issues outside of their control which has greatly affected their ability to increase earnings as quickly as they had planned to.

This was on full display in Q3 when earnings didn’t even beat Q1 earnings. We all understand the reasons and we all understand that as Berlin/Austin get to 5k/week, earnings will grow much faster than revenue from those factories. So we know what’s about to happen……but Q3 gave wall st all the biased headlines about peak margin they could have asked for.

So of course the P/E is going to stagnate right now. Earnings were not nearly strong enough to force the stock higher with the same P/E ratio and the earnings themselves didn’t really disprove the bear narrative.

Which is why Q4 is such a crucial make or break for both bull and bear narratives. There’s very little middle ground on practically everything - demand, production increase/capacity, margins, earnings, etc

If…..and that’s a big if, there are no production hiccups or downtimes in Q4, this will be the most pivotal quarter in Tesla’s history, at least to me and what means for Tesla’s valuation going forward

Hopefully this snippet from Bloomberg this morning will put our collective minds somewhat at ease:

I would have attached the whole article but it's paywalled.

 

[Gray Man]

Hopefully this snippet from Bloomberg this morning will put our collective minds somewhat at ease:
View attachment 871554

I would have attached the whole article but it's paywalled.

Here's a non-paywalled article about it: China’s stock markets jump on hopes for end to ‘zero COVID’

 

[Singuy]

Talked to my dad about the China situation. So on the federal level, they want some relaxation as in no shop closures, no locking of resident doors, however on the local level people are more strict. This is the result of local government afraid of losing their jobs having a breakout so they use super strict tactics on their citizens. This has resulted in another death, where an old lady jumped out of the 12th floor because her resident was on fire and they locked the exit of the building.

So basically on a federal level they are still seeking a 0 covid policy but trying to ban these crazy tactics to get there, while on a local level no one is complying.

 

[ifish]

the day I brought it home she wouldn't even look at it more than once. - Did she know you were buying it up until the day your brought it home?

Is there anything I can do to change this Tesla and Elon hating around? Unfortunately not, i am in the same boat, we just not talk about Tesla and Elon (I leave those discussions to everyone that comes over to our house)

She doesn't like the attention it brings - Give her more attention instead of eating, sleeping and breathing nothing but Elon and Tesla, this will soothe it a little. (Ask me how i know, i am living proof of this)

Me Too