Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

None of this has changed for me. If you listen to what Elon is saying first-hand, I think you'd find the same.

FWIW, I follow Elon closely on Twitter and bird and politics are all he talks about anymore.

Fingers crossed that it improves after this stupid election.

 

[Creekstalker]

the days before the dark times

How I can spot a relatively new TSLA investor.

You ain't seen dark times, my friend.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But if it gets down to $175, I plan on selling shares to buy some conservative Jan 2025 LEAPs. Only downside I see is if we trade sideways for the 2+ years, which seems unlikely for a company growing at 50% per year. Of course,, you never know, not trading advice, ya da ya da...

That has worked in the past. But MMs know your holdings, and your credit limit. LEAPS are also at risk for expiring OTM as long as the war and the recession lingers.

Remember the hinged pendulum? If you only buy and hold shares, the MMs can't toss U in the tumble dryer. People who hold LEAPs are at a much greater risk of being pickpocketed b4 the recovery:

Advice: HODL.

 

[StealthP3D]

And where is the stock price?

Both my portfolio and the stock price are multiple times higher than I thought it would be just three or four years ago.

It's normal for high flyers to gyrate up and down 30%-50% between highs and lows as they ratchet ever higher. The fact that TSLA is a bit over 50% down from all-time highs shouldn't surprise too much given how fast and how high it went. It is behaving like the extreme over-performer that it is. That said, I am surprised at the timing of it, but I know that timing is the one thing no one can predict in advance.

This is why we buy and hold. The real question for you should be:

How does your portfolio value compare to 2019 once adjusted for deposits and withdrawals? Based on your posts over the years, I'm guessing it's not a pretty look.

 

[thx1139]

How I can spot a relatively new TSLA investor.

You ain't seen dark times, my friend.

I have owned TSLA since 2012 and on here since 2014. Oh and out on Twitter defending Elon and Tesla from big oil, traditional auto, climate change deniers, since 2010 as well.

 

[Budding]

Much higher volumes on Friday and Monday. Already over 40M traded today. This is some big fund selling off or even Elon. Dont think retail can drive this kind of volume.

 

[Off Shore]

I assume the title remarks are a joke, because they don't change his fiduciary duties-- and he's also a board member at both companies (allegedly the only one at Twitter now, having fired all other board members) so that role ALSO has a bunch of similar fiduciary responsibilities as being an officer of the company.

Way too much nuance for this crowd.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Much higher volumes on Friday and Monday. Already over 40M traded today. This is some big fund selling off or even Elon. Dont think retail can drive this kind of volume.

View attachment 872478

Probably the same troublemakers that were behind suppressing GME

 

[tslagreen]

Yes, but the current administration gives Tesla policy wins, but Elon ignores that because he wants photo ops.

Is SCOTUS divided?

True, with regard to the IRA. Not sure how Scotus plays into this, but currently leans right.

 

[2daMoon]

I'm down on Elon right now, but I don't blame him for his political change of heart. He creates (with others) a transformational, generational company that is right out of the American success story playbook, but then gets trashed personally by pols like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and the like. The current administration whistles by the graveyard pretending that Tesla does not exist to not offend political supporters and companies. [By the way, I am center left politically as a point of reference.]

I would be pissed as well. Also, his most recent political comment about divided government is true. Nevertheless, I wish he would focus on "more important" matters, specifically with Tesla. He is who he is and I do not expect that he will reign it in and investors will have to make decisions accordingly.

It has always been easier for me to trust and respect people who support/vote for particular candidates and cross party lines to do it, rather than those who merely choose a party to always vote for and never give it another thought.

Looking for what will work best, despite what everyone else is saying, is a quality I WANT in a Technoking of any company I invest in.

 

[82bert]

I'm down on Elon right now, but I don't blame him for his political change of heart. He creates (with others) a transformational, generational company that is right out of the American success story playbook, but then gets trashed personally by pols like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and the like. The current administration whistles by the graveyard pretending that Tesla does not exist to not offend political supporters and companies. [By the way, I am center left politically as a point of reference.]

I would be pissed as well. Also, his most recent political comment about divided government is true. Nevertheless, I wish he would focus on "more important" matters, specifically with Tesla. He is who he is and I do not expect that he will reign it in and investors will have to make decisions accordingly.

My exact thoughts for awhile now and more accurately explains his about face with all of this. Doesn’t fully justify everything, but I get it. Revolutionary, climate change fighting, generational defining company run by a visionary and what does he get in return? Attacks for being a billionaire and ignored by the democratic leader of the free world. I’m sure it’s painful to him.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sure would be nice to hear about that share buyback. We need something to get out of this rut. Then all of the weak longs will jump back in with FOMO and we have restore sanity.

It's probably not time yet. Did you notice the TSLA weight in the S&P 500 index dropped to 1.63% in this morning's report, down from an ATH of over 2.5% back in September? (yes, less than 2 months ago).

S&P 500 Companies - S&P 500 Index Components by Market Cap

If the index reset was today, there'd likely be significant selling pressure on the rebalance date. Especially with shortzes front-running the event, and uncertain macros.

No, the time for Telsa to buy TSLA is likely Dec 16, 2022. A juicy $10B buy saves $100M in US Federal tax if done in 2022...

Not advice.

Paging @Unpilot

 

[thx1139]

True, with regard to the IRA. Not sure how Scotus plays into this, but currently leans right.

Leans? Seriously Leans? Do you know cases they have ruled on and what they have agreed to hear?
SCOTUS plays into this because the cases they are hearing are overturning precedent set for decades and only check is laws to replace decades old rulings. That wont happen with split government with legislature that cheers on what the SCOTUS is doing.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I’m beginning to think that Elon doesn’t want the extreme left owning Tesla stock. He sees what they are doing to free speech and what they are doing to the culture of the US. I think he despises them and doesn’t want them to enjoy the fruits of TSLA.

He knows an amazing quarter is coming up with record production numbers and wide release of FSD beta. Elon has a track record of rewarding those people that agree with him. There seems to be more than meets the eye here.

I think this post is a reminder that we all think way too much.

 

[tslagreen]

Leans? Seriously Leans? Do you know cases they have ruled on and what they have agreed to hear?
SCOTUS plays into this because the cases they are hearing are overturning precedent set for decades and only check is laws to replace decades old rulings. That wont happen with split government with legislature that cheers on what the SCOTUS is doing.

Okay, more than leans. Don't want to talk politics with you, however.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

A lot of people blaming Elon for the fall. I think investors share some of that blame too. In the other thread I've been reading for weeks now about people being margin called or being close to it, and it has been intensifying. Margin has helped TSLA on the way up, but is now pushing the stock much further down than it normally would have gone. The manipulators know this and are actively pushing the stock lower to cause more stop losses and margin calls. Lesson for the future: avoid margin, avoid being over-exposed.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Okay, more than leans. Don't want to talk politics with you, however.

Less left, less right. More liberty.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I think investors share some of that blame too. In the other thread I've been reading for weeks now about people being margin called or being close to it, and it has been intensifying. Margin has helped TSLA on the way up, but is now pushing the stock much further down than it normally would have gone. The manipulators know this and are actively pushing the stock lower to cause more stop losses and margin calls. Lesson for the future: avoid margin, avoid being over-exposed.

Isn’t that how the crash of ‘29 happened? I’m probably being too broad but I’m referring to margin and way too easy credit.

 

[Frizer]

I’m ready for my face-ripping rally now, please.

 

[cliff harris]

I suspect that internally, things are twitter are actually going pretty well. The fact that elon tweeted a chart showing how usage is up, probably shows his own frustration. he sees all the angry blue-ticks tweeting about how the company is doomed, but he has the actual figures.

And in a way, thats exactly what is happening with TSLA too. The famous loudmouths (Cramer et al) are tweeting and yabbering on about how the company is in trouble, but guess what.... the internal metrics for that company look even better!

Its worth reflecting on the fact that we have 2 absolutely amazing things currently about to happen with the company. And by about to happen, I mean in the next month or two:

1. Semi deliveries in under 3 weeks. This is the FIRST NEW PRODUCT since the model 3. *Y is similar to 3) and the first time the company has made a product aimed at business, instead of consumers. This is HUGE.
2. Simultaneous ramp of Texas and Berlin, at the exciting bit of the curve where outputs seems to head vertical. We have only seen Tesla ramp a purpose-built factory once (Shanghai), and NEVER seen them do two at once. I suspect some serious sandbagging of production targets is happening.

I haven't been this optimistic about the company for a long time. It felt for a while like the semi was vapourware and the 4680 was never going to happen. Also felt like Berlin would never get planning permission. Now all 3 of those concerns are in the rear view mirror, and we also have optimus for long term possibilities.
Anybody who sells before Christmas and doesn't need the cash for a life saving operation is going to regret it!