Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[H Mak]

So it turns out the 30 shares I bought yesterday for $1.89 were Elon Musk's. Cheers mate, nice doing business with ya

 

[ZsoZso]

If you look at past times that Elon has sold TSLA, those days are almost always heavy volume down days, with little news to explain the price action, and TSLA being much more negative relative to rest of the market. Although 6% may not seem like a large proportion of the shares trading hands, it's a different form of selling because he (his brokers) are selling without as much regard to price. It definitely seems to drag the shares down. Probably also gets amplified by margin calls, plus general fear generated from watching shares tank and clearly getting dumped by someone who appears to know something that we don't.

I remember prior Elon selling days always felt really bad, with much soul-searching and questioning how much of my portfolio is in TSLA. These past few days felt exactly like the prior times, which should have tipped me off that it was another Elon sale.

Maybe someone else knows the answer to your question about the put orders, but I wouldn't put it past Morgan Stanley, Goldman or whoever the brokerages were to screw the market over with some put options on days they know he's selling lots of shares.

You must be wrong to assume Elon dumping shares has any effect on the stock price.
If you look back in this thread, you will find several posts by @Gigapress proving with statistical analysis that Elon selling has no correlation with the SP dropping.

Come on guys, you have to believe the data! It is all macros...

/s

 

[ShareLofty]

Where is that ignore button? Haven't had to use it in a bit... @ShareLofty seems worthy of finding it.

Says the guy @Ryan27 who wasted pages upon pages of this thread talking about his marital problems. At least my posts are on topic.

The market doesn't know who is trading in the moment.

It just seems like folks are trying to say this was different because it was Elon selling, even though nobody knew this until the filing was made with the SEC today.

If you really believe no one knew this was EM selling until the Form 4s were filed then you’re even more gullible than I thought.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Look at what you made me fall on. Tesla should hire these guys for the balance of Optimus.

Wow! That's incredible. Immediately reminded me of landing an orbital class booster on it's tail with rocket thrust! Maybe Tesla can engineer this kind of SP stability with its share buyback program.

I am starting to believe more and more not to convert all my shares to LEAPS the way the stock is being pushed down and might linger there for as long the Market makers want. But the longer the stock stays suppressed the bigger the breakout.

I agree, I think that's wise. Wall St. brokerages know your holdings, and your credit limit. It's too simple (and too secret) for them to manipulate the SP long enough to harvest those LEAPS. The banksters have already shown themselves more than capable to do this with weekly expiring Options. What's the next largest pool of money they can go after? Banksters know, but they will fight to keep their actions secret.

Buy'n'hold long-term FTW.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

What are the “advanced notice” rules for a buyback? Are there any? My understanding is that they just need board approval and to file the forms.

Assuming Elon’s done selling, we should be near bottom here, with Q4 numbers looking good so far.

Especially with buyback tax rules becoming less favorable on Jan 1, now or soon would be a good time to buy some TSLA, Tesla.

 

[MABMAB]

GB worrying about blue bird check becoming an echo chamber, he needs to come round here some.
(@Krugerrand no need to disagree, it is just assumed at this point)

 

[mongo]

Imagine the fear-mongering and front-runnig if Elon were to sell day after day after day, and new Forms 4 coming out day after day after day.
This way it was a bomb, when Form 4 came out, it was a done deal.

If tomorrow another Form 4 lands, you will see what I'm talking about...

Form 4s must be filed within 2 business days of the transaction, that's why we see 3 days worth filed yesterday.
Next group would not be expected until Friday. If we see them today or tomorrow, that seems like a strong indication than the selling is over (if it isn't already; smaller share counts Monday and Tuesday seem favorable? )
If we get them today and tomorrow, that would be ???

 

[TSLA Pilot]

A lot of people blaming Elon for the fall. I think investors share some of that blame too. In the other thread I've been reading for weeks now about people being margin called or being close to it, and it has been intensifying. Margin has helped TSLA on the way up, but is now pushing the stock much further down than it normally would have gone. The manipulators know this and are actively pushing the stock lower to cause more stop losses and margin calls. Lesson for the future: avoid margin, avoid being over-exposed.

Which is/was an expensive lesson for me--JUST BUY PUTS to preclude margin calls! Yes, they almost always end up being wasted money, but far, far better than having shares sold out from under you at the worst possible time . . . when you would normally be buying.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Which is/was an expensive lesson for me--JUST BUY PUTS to preclude margin calls! Yes, they almost always end up being wasted money, but far, far better than having shares sold out from under you at the worst possible time . . . when you would normally be buying.

Very good point. Cheap puts will lower your gains, but will ensure your night rest and prevent you from being margin called.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Shanghai production was 88k in October. About damn time we got some positive data.

Of course……Rueters “reports” this as 16k in inventory even .

 

[2daMoon]

If that were the case, it would have to be front running (if linked to sale).
Elon's highest sale on 11/4 was 220.18, so there were no sales in the 10:10 to 11:00 time block.
11:05 candle touched 200.17
Lowest sale on Friday was 203.10
Note: on Form 4s sales are grouped by price, not chronology.

(Ameritrade stock history data)

View attachment 872816

For comparison, here is Nov 3rd (no Elon trading):
View attachment 872815

Thanks for this. I browsed the SEC form 4 hoping for time stamps and didn't think to correlate the prices sold at by comparing to the chart to get the timing narrowed down for Elon's sales. Very clever!

It does lend credence to the idea that his selling is unlikely to have precipitated the price drop on Friday.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon filed form 4 for 11/4 stock sale.

Here's a Summary table for Elon's TSLA sales from Nov 4-8, 2022: (19.5M shares, $3.95B proceeds, $202.52 ASP)

 

[2daMoon]

If you really believe no one knew this was EM selling until the Form 4s were filed then you’re even more gullible than I thought.

Sure, and you, not being so gullible, will be able to post up the exact time of, and date of, his next sale beginning. Doing so prior to the Form 4 filing in order to precisely correlate your amazing powers of deduction with reality against the eventual Form 4 release.

Maybe you will be able to tell us exactly how many shares he sells as well?

I won't be holding my breath waiting to see this.

Edit: SMR provided his perspective on this as well...

 

[PKEllefsen]

Hi guys! I'm considering adding some leaps with 2024/2025 expiry, but first want to try to understand if there's any realism to wallstreets EPS estimate of 5,76 for 2023.

Personally, I don't see any realistic scenario where tesla is producing less than 2,1M vehicles next year. 2,1M would already mean they that their growth numbers for both shanghai, texas and berlin will be ridiculously low. What they are able to sell on the other hand could be challenged by a recession - especially in china which is a substantial amount of their market. If they on the low end would only manage to sell 2M vehicles in 2023, they would still have to drastically lower prices and margins to get to less than 6 eps for the full year.

More realistically i would guess we are looking at some price decreases, more standard range versions sold, some cost reductions, and a fair increase in production in both Texas, Berlin and Shanghai (and some in Fremont). Most likely i would guess we are looking at around 2,3-2,5M vehicles produced and 2,1-2,3M vehicles delivered (with the potential to go higher) which would most likely mean a FY EPS of around 7 to 8. If we get anywhere near 7 eps for 2023 i think today's valuation is laughable and the stock price will be forced up as PE falls and earnings growth outperforms by extreme margin.

Any thoughts?

 

[Budding]

Its interesting that volume was way higher yesterday but Elon sold the least out of the 3 days.

 

[elasalle]

Its interesting that volume was way higher yesterday but Elon sold the least out of the 3 days.

That’s because the whale had been spotted… also means those who jumped in late yesterday missed out and could actually have losing trades …
I guess all eagerly waiting on how today’s ticker looks … if mr. Moby Dick has left the harpoons will have gone to waste


I have a feeling that those who jumped in based on chartist breakdowns and Tesla losing retail are gonna get hurt

 

[mongo]

Thanks for this. I browsed the SEC form 4 hoping for time stamps and didn't think to correlate the prices sold at by comparing to the chart to get the timing narrowed down for Elon's sales. Very clever!

It does lend credence to the idea that his selling is unlikely to have precipitated the price drop on Friday.

Friday morning looks (to me) like Thursday morning, but with a continued drop.

Ok stock people, can someone explain this?
Per https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/historical

Nov 8th high was $195.20
Elon had three groups of sales with prices above this, highest was $197.79

Nov 7th high was $208.90
Elon had sales up to $209.02

Someone is off on their records... [edit: or trading in non-market hours?]

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590297909567922176

"A dark black cloud over the Tesla story"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590187060811689984

 

[Mengy]

How sustainable is that pace though?

Since Gigapress didn't answer you I'll do it.

Tesla doesn't need to maintain their current growth rate to hit that 20 million production number for 2030. In fact, to hit the 20 mil they need to start tapering growth a few years before 2030. My model has it like this:

Production Growth Rate:
2023: 50%, 2,050,000
2024: 50% 3,080,000
2025: 50% 4,620,000
2026: 47% 6,950,000
2027: 38% 10,100,000
2028: 34% 12,600,000
2029: 29% 16,300,000
2030: 25% 20,040,000

I think this is sustainable and probable, given a bunch more Giga factories and the 35K car + Robotaxi models in high volume production.

A sustained 50% growth rate all the way to 2030 would put them around 35 million production, which I do not think is even remotely possible.

 

[JSML]

Hi guys! I'm considering adding some leaps with 2024/2025 expiry, but first want to try to understand if there's any realism to wallstreets EPS estimate of 5,76 for 2023.

Personally, I don't see any realistic scenario where tesla is producing less than 2,1M vehicles next year. 2,1M would already mean they that their growth numbers for both shanghai, texas and berlin will be ridiculously low. What they are able to sell on the other hand could be challenged by a recession - especially in china which is a substantial amount of their market. If they on the low end would only manage to sell 2M vehicles in 2023, they would still have to drastically lower prices and margins to get to less than 6 eps for the full year.

More realistically i would guess we are looking at some price decreases, more standard range versions sold, some cost reductions, and a fair increase in production in both Texas, Berlin and Shanghai (and some in Fremont). Most likely i would guess we are looking at around 2,3-2,5M vehicles produced and 2,1-2,3M vehicles delivered (with the potential to go higher) which would most likely mean a FY EPS of around 7 to 8. If we get anywhere near 7 eps for 2023 i think today's valuation is laughable and the stock price will be forced up as PE falls and earnings growth outperforms by extreme margin.

Any thoughts?

I think you presented a model that can happen and is not unreasonable, however, other scenarios can occur. Everyone is worried about a recession in U.S., China and Europe in 2023, and what that would mean for sales and margins.

If your time frame is longer, I think it's a safer bet. I loaded on both 2025 LEAPs and shares during the past month as the SP continued to spiral down. Looking to buy more today.