RobDickinson
Active Member
Germany isnt making or shipping blue or red cars and some of those dont have the 21" wheels etc so are RWD or LR?
Certainly model Y's and some of them may have been made in Germany
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Certainly model Y's and some of them may have been made in Germany
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
adiggs
Well-Known Member
This dynamic isn't new. In fact it has been the case for all of Tesla's history. The really crazy thing to me is that demand regularly overwhelms even Elon's expectations.
No links, but the stories and stuff as I remember them.
1) The original Model S program was expected / intended to be a 20k/vehicle per YEAR program. As a result Model X needed to follow on Model S's heels fairly quickly in order to ramp up total volume, and make the economics work to eventually get to Model 3.
-- Model S was so successful that focus when to ramping S, and leaving Model X to trail along later. I'm certain Model X would have been late either way - success of S meant that it didn't matter. Success of S might even have contributed to X lateness, by letting Elon (and presumably others) keep tinkering and making the design more complex.
-- Pretty sure that S was up to 20k/quarter on its own, without any help from X.
2) In the leadup to Model 3 reservations, I heard a story of an internal betting pool (so to speak) among executives at Tesla about how many reservations they would get in the first day. The loonie high guess / bet was 100k.
-- I don't remember actual first day reservations. My wife and I got our reservation about 5 minutes before Elon walked on stage - something like #126k.
We don't need to stick with Tesla examples, for examples of EV designs getting overwhelmed by reservations and later demand. Ford stopped taking reservations for the Lightning. Maybe because they delivered <3k last quarter with reservations in 6 digits (I think not 7 digits though - probably because they stopped taking reservations).
I don't have Lucid numbers - I don't believe interest / demand / buyers with money are their problem.
I don't have Rivian numbers - I also don't believe that interest / demand buyers-with-money are their problem.
Can anybody name an EV, by any manufacturer, that has a demand problem? The only one's I can name (1) have important safety / functionality problems, (2) the manufacturer doesn't want to make very many (compliance cars), or (3) the manufacturer doesn't have the supply chain setup to handle the volume demanded.
End result, my take, for any EV manufacturer. Once you have a semi-decent to good EV design, put the overwhelming chunk of your engineering and research budget into ramping that 1 good design to stupendous volume. Worry about a 2nd model / design, or even a new edition of that first design, only after you're fully ramped. And probably ramped well beyond the original intent.
Yet another way in which following in Tesla/Elon's footsteps as this new industry is born is a good idea.
Keep the complexity down - just build cars (make them well) and let customers mod them after delivery.
The truth about “any color so long as it is black”
Henry Ford (1863-1947) documented that he made the “any color so long as it is black” comment during a meeting in 1909 (Henry Ford in collaboration with Samuel Crowther in My Life and Work. 1922. P…
oplaunch.com
Henry Ford understood it
^^This. They find an edge case, then the query the fleet for information on this edge case.
I’m leaning towards agreeing with the emerging thesis that Elon is selling more Tesla stock to eliminate the debt load on Twitter.
He previously sold more than enough for the initial purchase, but now he is selling more stock to vastly scale down or eliminate the ~$13 Billion debt.
Potentially another week of TSLA selling by Elon if that theory is correct.
He previously sold more than enough for the initial purchase, but now he is selling more stock to vastly scale down or eliminate the ~$13 Billion debt.
Potentially another week of TSLA selling by Elon if that theory is correct.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
The Leaf has been a disappointment to me. They had the early start and the opportunity to be today's Tesla.
They pissed it away with such poor initial range in the cars (I wonder if that was at least, in part, motivated by a problem with battery supply)?
I'll grant you the Leaf
. On my own I'd put it into the failed design bucket due to small battery (initially) along with lack of active thermal management. A learning opportunity for the rest of the industry (does anybody build an EV today without active thermal management?)EDIT: At least it was never produced like a compliance car. For most of that decade (the 10's) the 'competition' was all compliance cars. Anything that is restricted to compliance markets and/or built to compliance volumes isn't 'competition' or even a serious EV in my book. I'm happy to see that most new EVs on the market aren't compliance cars any longer, even when compliance is their primary motivator.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
Isn’t the leaf still air cooled?The Leaf has been a disappointment to me. They had the early start and the opportunity to be today's Tesla.
They pissed it away with such poor initial range in the cars (I wonder if that was at least, in part, motivated by a problem with battery supply)?
I'll grant you the Leaf
Mod: the discussion of who picked the fight Markey vs Musk is too close to politics to continue. I haven't deleted the posts but won't tolerate continued bickering about it. --ggr
MOD: But I dId.
MOD: But I dId.
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I think there is a lot of young investors in his situation. As for me, at the start of the Ukrainian war when I was margin called and got a lot of position liquidated and lost over 1M in realized losses in one day, the evening when I got back home from work I just played with my kids went outside and played hockey and got back inside and played their favorite game with them Fortnite and we had so much fun I didn’t even remember I lost over 80% of my portfolio. I have since worked a lot and bought all the TSLA I could with the new fresh money I have and I am not doing as bad as the ex-SWE in that reddit thread. However, we are in a society who invented money as a more functional way to trade services for goods or food. However there is no correlation between having as much as money possible and happiness. Once you have enough to survive and don’t stress out about starting or losing the roof above your head, the important thing is the relation with your family and friends. Humans are social mammals. Relationships are far more important for happiness than money. However, consumerism capitalism managed to make us forget that an aboriginal tribe living in a small community helping each other with basic lodging and just enough will live far happier than someone living alone in a multimillion mansion eating lobster and caviar daily surrounded by all the luxury items possible but without social contacts.
Helping others and making the world a better place are the experiences you are going to remember on your death bed, not the third camera of your iPhone 18 Plus Pro Max you used to take a selfie to show your new jewelry that your getting paid to post on onlyfans. Well if you don’t remember it at least others will remember what you did for them.
I read there are 2 deaths. The first one when your heart stops beating and then the most sad one is when the memories left in the people who knew you vanish with them when th turn comes. Hope these memories will be positive ones.
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You've never driven a French car (eg. Renault Espace, Twingo, Peugeot 807…), have you?
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Rivian is fine. More than fine actually. But lucid is not. They are boxed in by Tesla and the high end Germans. There is not an unlimited demand for $100,000 luxury sedans that look like concept car Buicks. Even if they could ramp I think they are in trouble.
Do people really get paid to show off their jewelries on OF?
RobDickinson
Active Member
Or the original MiniYou've never driven a French car (eg. Renault Espace, Twingo…), have you?
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
We used to call it the Home Shopping Network.
The real question will be who can profitably ramp production into 5m+ annually. Tesla’s vertical integration and production architecture will allow for this as battery capacity grows. Just need to open new factories and a few new products
I don’t know. Around here the Nissan dealers could tons of leafs if they were available. If you ask about an Arriya they tell you minimum two years and won’t narrow it down more than that unless you give them a 5000 dollar deposit. It’s always been like that though here. BC interiour dealers. Sad.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
My point isn't whether Rivian or Lucid will turn out fine / are fine. My point is that, as far as I know, both have more demand for their vehicles than they can supply or are in danger of supplying.
If Lucid were looking like that 20k/year Tesla from 10 years ago, then I'd be looking for that next step.
Execution on the production front is what matters. Really its about all that matters - designing an EV that people will sign up for doesn't seem to be an issue. Somewhere further down the road there is a competition conversation about who designs and builds better EVs. It's also a fun diversion while we await that day. In the meantime the world is buying all the EVs that can be built, and people are standing in line - even in such bad economic times - to get one.
My rationale for describing the state of affairs this way - gas engine cars are still being sold (in the US) the traditional way. Dealership lots full of cars, with months between when they are built and when the retail consumer takes possession. I am unaware of any lots full of EVs, found systematically throughout the country, with cars looking for buyers. Regardless of who makes them. Or any danger of such lots coming into being.
Ford dealerships aren't about to start changing over from gas to EV cars sitting on their lots for months, looking for buyers.
CLK350
Member
Weekend OT - sadly will have to decline delivery of my MY in the next few days - my great tip top shape CLK350 may have to vroom along for another year. Won't likely be able to sell less liquid assets (really great painting being easiest, but still iffy slow these days)
Serious question: would have gladly paid "cash" in TSLA shares back then if that were possible. So indeed why would Tesla not set up a fund (fiduciary something like other companies do) and accept payment in TSLA shares at current market value. This would prevent shares entering the Wall St /SEC fake fair trading market. Some tweaks necessary to make it financially/ legally right, which some TMC'ers might have some opinion.
Or I've been drinking too much this weekend ; D
For the record:
I had thought it a great sign when the owner of a M3 had decided to pick my preferred parking spot ... well there is always tomorrow - or could be a blessing in disguise.
Anyways happy to contribute the deposit to the Mission
Serious question: would have gladly paid "cash" in TSLA shares back then if that were possible. So indeed why would Tesla not set up a fund (fiduciary something like other companies do) and accept payment in TSLA shares at current market value. This would prevent shares entering the Wall St /SEC fake fair trading market. Some tweaks necessary to make it financially/ legally right, which some TMC'ers might have some opinion.
Or I've been drinking too much this weekend ; D
For the record:
I had thought it a great sign when the owner of a M3 had decided to pick my preferred parking spot ... well there is always tomorrow - or could be a blessing in disguise.
Anyways happy to contribute the deposit to the Mission
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