Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TSLA Pilot]

Earlier this year, I planned to swap out Model Y's for something of a better color (and hoping for 4680s). Now, Tesla wants to deliver mine before year end, but what are the chances it will include 4680s, zero? So are all 4680s destined for Semi and Cybertruck as plan of record? Some SR Model Y's come out of Austin (still coming?), but I'm in the Fremont delivery zone (US-west). Sorry if I'm not clear on this roll out, maybe anyone's guess.

Factor in any '23 EV discounts (not clear for me) and now Tesla has a Q4 demand problem all because of me. My reasons for purchasing at this time are a bit unusual as I have too many white ones and can't find them in the parking lots anymore. This last one was a good deal (used P) but I will need more Gs and a 400 SP if we're buying for acceleration and joy over range and comfort. (But track mode on the Y Performance coming out maybe soon makes it a bit more difficult).

The main public attraction that I anticipate from 4680s is charging speed (unknown) which could affect the value of all prior versions. Charging speed was never an issue for us, but it is an overblown fear planted in consumer minds.

Not really OT, but . . . a relative received her MY near Phoenix in September (2022). Was surprised to see that it was an Austin-build, with the fancy package shelf in the back even . . . .

Also: good fit and finish--a surprise on a brand new Tesla!

 

[Discoducky]

Interesting article about the 2 accidents that may be dragging down the market:

NHTSA data reveals two new fatal crashes with Tesla ADAS features active, but there's more to the story [Update]

The NHTSA data shows a Tesla ADAS system was active but appears to not have been the cause, or even a factor, in the crash.

driveteslacanada.ca

2021 accident, the Model 3 was stopped and hit by drunk driver.
2022 data is redacted.

So it is pure FUD until more data is released.

 

[AndrewZ]

I suspect one of the reasons Tesla has been quiet about which cars will qualify for incentives and how much is likely to stave off a bit of this effect. If you have a M3SR on order it's a giant question mark whether it will qualify at all. It likely will, but $3,750 or the full $7,500? The M3LR is still off the menu for the moment, likely for similar reasons. They don't want people delaying orders hoping to catch a discount. The less clear the presence or absence of a future discount, the less likely people will delay their orders.

Elon on the last earnings call said that "at a high level, we do expect to fully meet the IRA's requirements"

Zachary's follow-up was more nuanced, but Elon didn't seem too concerned about that delaying/cancelling orders!

 

[Gigapress]

it shows that the range of the Giga Texas 4680 Model Ys is NOT software limited.

Drew had already confirmed this on the Q2 call when Pierre Ferragu asked.

Cell-level energy density is an artifact. It's pack-level (including struture) that matters. How much more or less does the entire vehicle weigh vs a Model Y with a 2170-style cargo pack?

Munro Live didn’t measure the whole vehicle but did say the whole structural pack plus everything built upon it is 1198 pounds. It's potentially not an overall weight savings (yet as of mid-2020 when their Y was built), but the biggest advantages are manufacturability and cost.

u/shinyaveragehuman: What's amazing is that the battery pack, seats, and center console weigh 1,198 pounds as noted towards the end of the video! In comparison, as Cory pointed out, some of the batteries alone from other vehicles weigh twice that. Incredible engineering from Tesla!

u/MunroLiveStuart:
To clarify, those heavier batteries were the Plaid and Rivian. Rivian alone is nearly 800kg. Our 2020 Model Y was 440kg.

Personally, I don't think that the seats, center console, and carpet are 100kg, so the battery pack itself is probably heavier than the old design. The big savings is in eliminating the load floor, both in terms of weight, raw material cost, and labor cost. Just being able to stand inside the vehicle and install the pillar trim rather than hang into the vehicle from outside, bend backward, and clip it in is a huge ergonomic advantage.

Tesla is playing the big picture game, seeking gains across the entire vehicle, rather than looking at single part savings.

u/MunroLiveStuart: No. The Model Y pack is only 440kg, at least our 2020 one was. I think it was a standard range dual motor unit. Can't remember off hand.

Cory's comparison was mainly against the Plaid, which was 560kg without carpet and seat, and against the Rivian, which is 790kg. Those are both huge batteries though.

Personally, I think that the battery will be heavier than the 2020 model Y, but you also have to remember that it's the load floor as well as the battery, so you're eliminating all of those load floor parts and their weight, even if you're adding some of that into the battery, eliminating those parts saves some money, and some weight. …


[Replying to reply:]
I think the big save is being able to get rid of the load floor in the body in white. It might not be a weight save at all in the end, but it's definitely a cost save at piece cost level, and a systemic level by eliminating part numbers, warranty claims and scrap due to those part numbers, etc.

 

[Artful Dodger]

when Pierre Ferrari asked.

You mean the food critic?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Drew had already confirmed this on the Q2 call when Pierre Ferrari asked.



Munro Live didn’t measure the whole vehicle but did say the whole structural pack plus everything built upon it is 1198 pounds. It's potentially not an overall weight savings (yet as of mid-2020 when their Y was built), but the biggest advantages are manufacturability and cost.

Munro's team must have weighed the vehicle in it's entirety. That seems like one of the very first things they would/should do. Strange that they didn't include that on the Munro Live video. But others have done it, and those numbers are out there. I expect that there will be 4680 cells in production with 280+ wh/kg energy density within 18 months.

 

[Speedr117]

Cell-level energy density is an artifact. It's pack-level (including struture) that matters. How much more or less does the entire vehicle weigh vs a Model Y with a 2170-style cargo pack?

Totally agree, but overall weight of the 4680 Model Y is similar to the weight of the 2170 Long Range Model Y (there's a comment in the video referencing the common question of "why is the 4680 so heavy?").

Again, early days, but there is a lot of room for improvement! I feel this is what Tesla is really good at: iteration. They have their base new architecture, now they'll start whittling away at weight, improving energy density, etc.

 

[Speedr117]

Munro's team must have weighed the vehicle in it's entirety. That seems like one of the very first things they would/should do. Strange that they didn't include that on the Munro Live video. But others have done it, and those numbers are out there. I expect that there will be 4680 cells in production with 280+ wh/kg energy density within 18 months.

Agree about the 18 months comment. Ultimately, I'm sure the 4680 Model Y will have at least the same range as the 2170 version.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

It's pretty real to some degree, but plenty of levers to pull in case as we all know.

Phone support is heading it off with "If this is about how the EV tax incentives... consult your tax advisor." (OT, the actual reason for my call was that my trade-in needs a new rear hatch and wanted to know if it matters if Tesla vs Tesla qualified repairs it for when I trade-in. Hold times are still long, good sign.)

Ah, Soulpedl, if I were you, I'd GET OFF THE PHONE.

Why ask a question to which the only answers could be "nothing has changed" or "now you'll have to fight us?"

Seriously, do you want to hear that because Tesla repaired your car to Tesla specs, your trade-in value has now dropped by $x,xxx?

Why open that can of worms and start that fight? Life is far, far too short, no?

While your intent is likely good, sometimes it's best to keep quiet.

 

[capster]

This review of the ORA Funky Cat EV from Great Wall Motors (China) is quite positive. The Western legacy automakers may be worried, but perhaps they should be terrified:

 

[Ogre]

Agree about the 18 months comment. Ultimately, I'm sure the 4680 Model Y will have at least the same range as the 2170 version.

Someone posted the battery chemistry analysis above. It's pretty clear that almost none of the discussed chemistry changes have happened. For example Tesla was planning on eliminating Cobalt, but current 4680 cells are higher in Cobalt than Panasonic's cells. The silicon rich cathode is also missing from the equation.

I suspect much of this won't materialize until the cathode factory in Texas is online. Hopefully before the Cybertruck ships!!

 

[Ogre]

This review of the ORA Funky Cat EV from Great Wall Motors (China) is quite positive. The Western legacy automakers may be worried, but perhaps they should be terrified:

Ford and GM post the vast majority of their sales in the US at this point and their US revenues are largely protected from Chinese competition. That doesn't protect them from getting savaged by Tesla though.

 

[Singuy]

This review of the ORA Funky Cat EV from Great Wall Motors (China) is quite positive. The Western legacy automakers may be worried, but perhaps they should be terrified:

Lots of fantastic Chinese made andriod phones and yet no one cares in the Western world. I am going to be forever in the camp that thinks EVs from China are competitive in China until many of them goes bankrupt, and will not make a dent in the U.S.

Everyone reviewing cars are reviewing half the car. The other half being the most important part is support infrastructure. Non-existent in the US and will remain non-existent for awhile. It's a "MAJOR" miracle Tesla has turned a corner as a new car company because it's stupid hard to convince enough people to buy your box that goes from A-B without a well established support infrastructure when there are established brands that can do the same for decades.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Seriously, do you want to hear that because Tesla repaired your car to Tesla specs, your trade-in value has now dropped by $x,xxx?

Chill, I already accepted that depreciation - same no matter where I sell the car. I just wanted to know if there was a difference in method, or quality, and/or value between being repaired at a Tesla Service Center vs Authorized local body shop. I was wondering if Tesla had a better process as I might need to keep this one a while longer due to recent SP. The 3rd party quoted extra to R&R my rear window then feather blend the white into the rear quarters. Maybe I want mine with the glass installed from the factory. So I'm headed to the Tesla body shop. If you're in the area, let's go talk to the experts on this.

 

[Nocturnal]

Lots of fantastic Chinese made andriod phones and yet no one cares in the Western world. I am going to be forever in the camp that thinks EVs from China are competitive in China until many of them goes bankrupt, and will not make a dent in the U.S.

Everyone reviewing cars are reviewing half the car. The other car being the most important part is support infrastructure. Non-existent in the US and will remain non-existent for awhile. It's a "MAJOR" miracle Tesla has turned a corner as a new car company because it's stupid hard to convince enough people to buy your box that goes from A-B without a well established support infrastructure when there are established brands that can do the same for decades.

Sometimes we forget that early buyers and even later model 3 buyers considered the very real possibility that Tesla would go under. At the time I wasn't worried as I was positive that absolute worst case someone would buy them out and service existing cars but who will bother to do that with some no-name Chinese company?

 

[elasalle]

Elon in court, vol low ... so he definitely not the one selling today

when does the board bite

 

[Gigapress]

Someone posted the battery chemistry analysis above. It's pretty clear that almost none of the discussed chemistry changes have happened. For example Tesla was planning on eliminating Cobalt, but current 4680 cells are higher in Cobalt than Panasonic's cells. The silicon rich cathode is also missing from the equation.

I suspect much of this won't materialize until the cathode factory in Texas is online. Hopefully before the Cybertruck ships!!

Yeah, I think it's basically Tesla engineers hedging technical risk. They are introducing many changes with the 4680s, which would increase risk of failures, all else being equal.

So in the beginning they compensate for that by doing stuff like:

• Increasing manganese and cobalt by about 50%
• Increasing cell can thickness by about 10%
• Liberally applying adhesive/flame retardant ("pink foam of death"), probably more than is really necessary
• Only doing dry electrode deposition for the anode but not cathode
• Not using silicon in the anode
• Limiting charge/discharge rate and depth of discharge (Drew Baglino said the 4680 packs aren't software-limited, but it is an option for risk mitigation.)

As Tesla gather field data and dial everything in for the design and manufacturing of each element, they can gradually introduce new tech and trim fat from the safety margins.

 

[advocate8]

Agree about the 18 months comment. Ultimately, I'm sure the 4680 Model Y will have at least the same range as the 2170 version.

yes, but for now, if you’re a buyer of a Y, you want the 2170 batteries. Hands down.

 

[GOVA]

This review of the ORA Funky Cat EV from Great Wall Motors (China) is quite positive. The Western legacy automakers may be worried, but perhaps they should be terrified:

This costs from ~15K to 20K per comments there.

Robert loves it and the car seems to be great.

 

[RobDickinson]

Elon in court, vol low ... so he definitely not the one selling today

when does the board bite

You think he sits at some trading portal clicking sell?