Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

We already know CPI inflation reports will keep going down. Truflation gives a real time estimate

This guy I linked in the twitter thread below shows a predictive model that accounts for 3 months of lag between real time estimates and CPI print. He has been accurate in predicting the last few months of CPI print based on a model using changes in Truflation data.

Last month he already predicted November and further drops for December and January CPI. And given the continued drop in the data since then, it seems likely that February will continue down further. Stop the rate hikes!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602666183613992960

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hope everyone is prepared for a very frustrating day today……hedge funds not going to give up on TSLA breaking through a new low that easily. TSLA will be capped and underperform today in hopes that either Powell ruins the party or there’s some more FUD they have planned

 

[nativewolf]

Thanks @ZeApelido I like to watch for folks like that.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don’t know what that maths means. Somebody explain it to me like I’m a Saluki.

Effective value of current cash diminishes over time depending on interest rates. Higher interest rates, lower value. More time, lower value.

Alternative reading: you have to speculate to accumulate.
Alternative reading: yes, I've lost a ton of money right now, but I'm investing, and just you wait.
Alternative reading: stop increasing interest rates, please.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We already know CPI inflation reports will keep going down. Truflation gives a real time estimate

View attachment 884404

This guy I linked in the twitter thread below shows a predictive model that accounts for 3 months of lag between real time estimates and CPI print. He has been accurate in predicting the last few months of CPI print based on a model using changes in Truflation data.

Last month he already predicted November and further drops for December and January CPI. And given the continued drop in the data since then, it seems likely that February will continue down further. Stop the rate hikes!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602666183613992960

It’s actually even better than that. Take out shelter and inflation for the 2nd straight month was negative MoM.

That’s huge

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602664650910244864

 

[elasalle]

Q4 deliveries in China will be a new record by a large margin compared to 121K in Q3. At the same time, they don't have enough orders to absorb all production.

Does it need to?
We know there are no ships to EU, but there is still a small stream of ships going to AUS,NZ and JPN in DEC ... how do you account for that?

cheers!!


++

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602237173851295744

 

[Krugerrand]

I would totally be fine with $166 being the low and CPI and FOMC pivoting the stock market back to a full bull market. I really don’t mind if my last buy order at $160 doesn’t fill with the last cents I transferred to my account.

Good to know and I’d be fine with it too.

 

[Prunesquallor]

More $TSLA tailwinds

 

[BornToFly]

Hope everyone is prepared for a very frustrating day today……hedge funds not going to give up on TSLA breaking through a new low that easily. TSLA will be capped and underperform today in hopes that either Powell ruins the party or there’s some more FUD they have planned

Still below yesterday's open at this point....

 

[StealthP3D]

Month to month variability in sales data from China really has no appreciable bearing on the long term value of Tesla stock. Don't pretend it does and focus instead on the things that do. What's the trend, does anything threaten this trend?

So, I should worry about China demand, because China is full of risks, but if Q4 is a record-breaking quarter, in terms of production and delivery in China, I shouldn't pretend it has any bearing on the long-term value of the stock?

OK, got it! Thanks!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Does it need to?
We know there are no ships to EU, but there is still a small stream of ships going to AUS,NZ and JPN ... how do you account for that? cheers!!

Can you link me to who’s tracking my those ships? I had been under the impression that there were no exports for the past 2-3 weeks because the most popular ship trackers weee saying there weren’t.

If Shanghai has in fact been running a steady stream of additional exports to those countries you listed(which makes sense because they would still arrive in Europe), that changes everything

 

[sunwarriors]

For me, probably a bmw i4. Or maybe yoloing it and going for a taycan or etron-gt

Too bad the Macan EV is so delayed.

 

[NicoV]

Troy's numbers are NOT monthly data until the end of the quarter. He makes money for making incorrect estimates that are used by the media to short the SP, and in doing so, he is damaging TSLA stockholders. Perhaps he should be held accountable...

About those people convinced they are so smart that they can monetize their Tesla knowledge on social media (youtube, patreon, medium etc):
Apparently they were not smart enough to buy Tesla many years ago, otherwise they would have no need to try to monetize.
If only I knew were to find those people smart enough to buy TSLA many years ago. (Wink, wink, say no more).

 

[elasalle]

Can you link me to who’s tracking my those ships? I had been under the impression that there were no exports for the past 2-3 weeks because the most popular ship trackers weee saying there weren’t.

If Shanghai has in fact been running a steady stream of additional exports to those countries you listed(which makes sense because they would still arrive in Europe), that changes everything

check vedaprime on twitter... he has some new updates but does not say ship #, but we are like ship 7 or 8. Few weeks back he had mentioned it as ship # 6.
rest is on patreon.

IIRC, the driven.io is where I saw article on Nov AUS numbers of 4K

 

[FireMedic]

About those people convinced they are so smart that they can monetize their Tesla knowledge on social media (youtube, patreon, medium etc):
Apparently they were not smart enough to buy Tesla many years ago, otherwise they would have no need to try to monetize.
If only I knew were to find those people smart enough to buy TSLA many years ago. (Wink, wink, say no more).

TBF many of them did. Take Dave Lee and Emmett Peppers. These folks bought early and saw an opportunity worth sharing. I’m personally very grateful to some of these people. We’re it not for them I’d have continued to believe the FUD about TSLA and Tesla.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not a stockholder though family is, old stockbroker family.

My advice here is to not worry too much about the variability in month to month data on car sales as that will not impact the HODL analysis. Don't attack people who monitor such things (too many people making attacks on Troy- it is shocking to me that the mods don't rein that in but will ban people for raising perfectly fine questions). Troy's numbers are just what they are, monthly data. Draw what inferences from it that you feel fit to make.

China is fraught with risks and that's recognized by any sane investor. Macro economic perspective inside china can change overnight at the whim of non market forces. Eyes wide open. You can be bullish that China figures out how to dig out of some very challenging macro economic issues (they appear to have been adroit in the past but that might be due to lack of info). To not expect significant up and down swings is silly. It should have no bearing on your decision to hold any stock much less Tesla or other strong growth stocks.

Watch trends carefully, if the EU implements something like the IRA than that will significantly constrain the value of shanghai as an export hub and leave it with developing countries and Australia/NZ/UK/Norway/Switzerland. That's a longer term risk that's worth monitoring. UK could also do something like IRA but as such a small market that might be tough. Those are the sorts of things that might drive production constraints on more than a Q to Q basis and thus might be worth considering.

If they struggle to ramp Semi 2023 than that's worth considering because it means 4680 is still struggling as they'll suck all the 2170 capacity into semis if they want to do 50k in 2024. That's not a month to month sort of thing but will clip growth.

Month to month variability in sales data from China really has no appreciable bearing on the long term value of Tesla stock. Don't pretend it does and focus instead on the things that do. What's the trend, does anything threaten this trend?

Ok.
Pfft!
Ok.
Meh.
Meh.
Duh!

 

[StealthP3D]

The numbers from China are not what's driven the stock down to a 2 year low but we can't discuss that on the investor thread . Numbers from China over 2 years have been great.

I think I get it. So, Troy should develop a new number system, one that actually carries meaning to TSLA investors. I guess that means it would have to be some sort of Musk/Tw*****r coefficient? /s

No thanks, I like basing my investment on numbers that actually matter, growth of production and deliveries and the margins thereof. In other words, the company's actual performance. So I agree with you, Troy's numbers don't matter and are not useful. People who trip over themselves trying to show us what Troy just said are making fools of themselves.

 

[viridi]

As is to be expected on a substantial macro up day when TSLA has been trending down - significant bear raid pre-market and then lots of early spoofing/capping.

 

[thx1139]

Our own @The Accountant here stating the most current production from Shanghai was going to Australia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602639414068482051

Did I somehow miss that there were exports happening in the previous two weeks? If so, that changes everything about Shanghai this quarter

One thing I still dont understand is the state of Inventory in China. Rob Maurer videos show that at the end of October the Inventory in China was at 16K. November sold over 100K and production was at 88K. So unless I am missing something on December 1st Tesla China would have roughly 4K units to sell. Tesla China is making roughly 20K per week. So at the end of tomorrow end of November plus production would have 44K units. We have insurance number for the 1st partial week of 12K units which if evenly divided per day would be roughly 7000 delivered Dec 1 through Dec 4. Then 13K more through the 11th. So 20K delivered in China so far this month and 24K either in inventory or shipped. They dont just drive out of factory into someones garage.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hope everyone is prepared for a very frustrating day today……hedge funds not going to give up on TSLA breaking through a new low that easily. TSLA will be capped and underperform today in hopes that either Powell ruins the party or there’s some more FUD they have planned

And TSLA immediately smacked down to straight up underperforming the Nasdaq. Was up 5% in pre market literally 15 mins ago