Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

Picked up a few more shared today. Not much dry powder.

Same. I didn't have any left in my sofas all dried up, so I shook the fam's that I have access to lol. Remember ppls buy low...

 

[EverettRuess]

I have no idea if Elon has/is selling lately. If he is I am sure he didn't want to sell at these levels. If he is, he is forced to sell. Would this be looked at as too much "leverage"? Just asking.

 

[rps315]

FWIW, almost every discussion/story I see about Tesla is about Elon. There are very few, if any, sites/stories about any of the things that are of substance as the Elon overhang is simply too large.

To have a discussion board where we do not address this is simply pointless.

I'd love it if some activist investor decided to make a play for control of Tesla. I would definitely vote to have Elon removed as CEO .... as would many.

His usefulness is gone and he is no longer necessary for Tesla to flourish, in fact, he is holding the company back.

Is it too late to give this guy another shot?

 

[Ratanpara]

It is very easy to get depresssing thoughts on TSLA these days, Recession, demand collapsing, Elon behaving badly, Elon dumping lot share on open market. From a business prospective TSLA cost structure is second to none, they will change accooding to market condition and will have decent margin.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Looks like I will be losing about $40,000 on the leaps I bought two years ago. I should have listened to @StealthP3D and not @TheTalkingMule. I’m not blaming the Mule, but I am worried about his well-being. For me it was a not too costly lesson, but for the Mule I fear this downturn has been extremely costly. I hope he comes back soon.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Same. I didn't have any left in my sofas all dried up, so I shook the fam's that I have access to lol. Remember ppls buy low...

Did I miss it again? I think I can get another 20 chairs at this price using reserves - just want to time it right.

 

[FireMedic]

I’m scared of how low this goes. And that sucks. But I continue to remind myself that someone wants me to sell them my cheap shares. Sadly I deployed all remaining dry powder and am simply a spectator now.

There’s not a better opportunity in my opinion. If I wouldn’t sell my shares at $400 I’m certainly not selling them at $150.

I must remain steadfast that tesla is building the future I want to see for my children. I’d rather tell them I rode TSLA into the ground than that I bailed because I got scared and chose to protect my wealth rather than do what was right.

Just my $.02

 

[oldTAVguy]

In for another 20 today, at the sale price of 157. Only 6% away from my goal. However, next year I may move my goal posts further out.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Love that you're repeating your PT of 70. Care to do the math behind that PT of 70? Oh wait, I already did it...and guess what? You don't know what you're talking about

TSLA is now back to the same range it was in when the S&P 500 inclusion was announced: Mission Accomplished for those shortzes, dragging us back here.

Too ironic that it took a pandemic, a war, a recession, and a hostile/erratic FED to get their way (but shortzes care not about anything except $$)

Notice what else is at the $155 SP level? That's right, its also the top of the 5:1 TSLA split run up in Aug 2020. Now the question is, are shortzes going to be satisfied with getting back their S&P losses, or do they want their 5:1 split losses back too?

Well, rhetorical question cuz those d**** can't be satisfied. After the S&P 500 issue is settled this Friday, shortzes will use any available excuse to take the SP to the level at the start of the 5:1 split run (Aug 11, 2020).

BTW that level is 90 not 70, so yes, the OP to whom you replied (and I blocked literally years ago) is sucking slough water.

Next week's action? Let's see what the IRS/Treasury Dept announces for IRA details (maybe even this Thu or Fri?). If they try some monkey business to scroo over Tesla (on obviously political motives), then shortzes will press on, and TSLA will be on the back foot once more.

That's why DCA is the way forward for savy Tesla investors. Nibble here and there when it's juicy, and keep a little something in your back pocket for surprise gifts. This too shall pass!

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[wipster]

Dare I say it...?

 

[gene]

That is absolutely how the share price moves and it's baffling how that flies over the head of what I'm going to estimate is more than 50% of retail investors. Share prices are very ethereal and can turn on a dime with no fundamental movement in the value of the company. This is what makes a market and putting significant credibility into the share price is what ruins investors performance. Because it holds the analyses of other investors above your own and that's not going to end well for people who come under that spell.

Attacks on share price, as are happening right now with TSLA, are designed to shake the confidence of investors and lower the share price enough that stop losses and margin limits are hit, creating a cascade of selling that continues to reinforce the negative narrative. Manipulators know how to manipulate following time proven rules. I've always said the share price of a strong company can go both higher than your wildest dreams and lower than you ever thought was possible. This is just how it works and the mechanism for that is described well by combining Cliff's accurate observation above about what the share price actually represents with a loss of confidence instilled by false narratives.

This is possible because investors are irrationally fearful to their own detriment (just as they are irrationally bullish during good times). Fear causes investors to focus on things that don't matter, instead of things that do, like the company's positioning in their core business, the trends of volumes and margins, production capacity and future catalysts. All of these things are positive and yet I see very little discussion of them. Somehow the manipulators have convinced TSLA investors to talk only of things that are not real, things like demand problems, Elon losing his mind and the value of the company cratering.

It's truly sad how easily even many of the so called "smart" people right here are guided right down these rabbit holes. It would blow my mind if I hadn't seen it a hundred times before. I want people to save these unwise posts for when times are good. You will find the very vocal people who are all doom and gloom now will be nowhere to be found when we are hitting new all-time highs.

Again StealthP3D brings us a post worthy of me forwarding to my non-TMC, TSLA investors. Thank you.

 

[EVMeister]

Dare I say it...?

No.

 

[gene]

Just picked up 200 shares at $159. I've been waiting for it to start heading up, but my fingers got antsy on the key board. I have more dry powder if it goes lower.

 

[FireMedic]

I’m scared of how low this goes. And that sucks. But I continue to remind myself that someone wants me to sell them my cheap shares. Sadly I deployed all remaining dry powder and am simply a spectator now.

There’s not a better opportunity in my opinion. If I wouldn’t sell my shares at $400 I’m certainly not selling them at $150.

I must remain steadfast that tesla is building the future I want to see for my children. I’d rather tell them I rode TSLA into the ground than that I bailed because I got scared and chose to protect my wealth rather than do what was right.

Just my $.02

I should note that I benefited greatly from the March 2020 dip, quickly turned a massive gain based on dumb luck and timing of our vehicle purchases (we bought Tesla’s then bought TSLA…because duh). That turned me into an obsessive EV enthusiast. Just ask my friends/acquaintances what topic I won’t shut up about!

There will be more entrants into this stock because of this massive sell off that will also benefit on the next runup. I like to remind myself that it’s not only the shorts and hedge funds that benefit from these (stupid) sell offs; many of the beneficiaries will be the new ~1.5 mil. new tesla owners this year who LOVE are obsessed by their love for their new car.

 

[Curt Renz]

There is a huge negative correlation between the macro swings today and TSLA. It looks as though Elon might have been selling TSLA this morning, and perhaps all week to fund expenses for his new toy. We may know better tonight, if a related SEC Form 4 is released.

Any such selling by Elon may have ended around 11 am EST when TSLA bottomed and began a climb upward.

Some argue that Elon would not be wise to sell at such low prices, but that may not be a great concern for him, since he has access to far more money than he can ever spend for personal needs.

 

[Unpilot]

Dare I say it...?

See...you thought it.

 

[H Mak]

Here are some numbers which might cheer people up (some hope):

20m cars sold (Tesla's aim by 2030)
ASP $50,000
Revenue $1 Tn (yes trillion)
Operating margin 20%
Operating profit $200 Bn
Assumed PE 50
Market cap $10 Tn
Number of shares 3.16 Bn
= Share price $3,165
Today's share price $160

If they fail and are "only" selling 10m cars by 2030
= Share price $1,582

If they are only selling 10m cars by 2030 and the PE is only 25 (Don't be silly)
= Share price $791

This is why I'm not whinging, I'm not complaining, I'm not moaning. I'm buying.

 

[wipster]

See...you thought it.

Ha! I musta been Neuralinked last night when I was sleeping...

The machinations of the SP now prolly won't make much of a difference in 2 hours or so anyway.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

There is a huge negative correlation between the macro swings today and TSLA. It looks as though Elon might have been selling TSLA this morning, and perhaps all week to fund expenses for his new toy. We may know better tonight, if a related SEC Form 4 is released.

Some argue that Elon would not be wise to sell at such low prices, but that may not be a great concern for him, since he has far more money than he can ever spend for personal needs.

This could be one of the reasons he has recently advised avoiding margin. Perhaps he had to sell.

 

[rsm287]

I have been a Tesla shareholder since 2018 and over the last 4 years this thread has helped me maintain my conviction during many difficult times. By 2020 over 98% of my net worth was invested in TSLA and since then I have continued to add shares whenever I can afford to.

I very rarely post anything because I don’t want to add any more clutter to this thread…but lately the signal to noise ratio has deteriorated and I just wanted to add my thoughts (for what it’s worth)…

I was thinking about you the other day working like crazy to invest all your job proceeds into TSLA. Well this has not worked really well for me lately every money I make and send into TSLA goes down while the SPY is green and green and green.

This also makes me think about selling a part and going into ETFs.

I bought some more TQQQ which has been doing better than TSLA lately

I understand how difficult and disheartening it can be when you see your portfolio down 60% or more and the share price is significantly lower than many of the share purchases you’ve made in the last couple of years.

But if you are working hard to invest all your proceeds in TSLA, then surely logic dictates that this current price allows you to accumulate a lot more shares than if the share price was much higher now, right? Then when the share price recovers (it’s only a matter of time, and patience) your gains will be significantly higher for any shares you’ve managed to purchase at this lower level. Obviously this only applies for long term investments and not if you need the money in the short term.

This is the principal I followed when the price dropped in 2019. I continued buying as many shares as I could afford because the market had become disconnected from what I knew about the company. There was a lot of noise back then too. Although it was significant at the time, the funny thing is that when you look at the 5 year chart now you can barely even see that dip in 2019, due to the change in the vertical scale! I'm sure that given enough time, this dip will look the same...

There has been a lot of speculation lately (just like there was speculation about the Model 3 ramp back in 2019), but we haven’t seen any actual evidence to back up that speculation. The naysayers keep trying to spin the narrative that Tesla has a ‘demand problem’ (just like they’ve always done) and that anything less than 50% growth is a disaster. They cherry-pick their information from individual markets or individual quarters to try and fit that narrative and as a result they just can’t see the wood for the trees.

The reality of delivering cars all over the world from a handful of factories is that the numbers are often lumpy (especially when you zoom in), but if you zoom out far enough you will see that the growth continues.

With Covid and supply chain challenges, obviously the growth hasn’t been as high as it might have been under more normal circumstances and sometimes that can be frustrating. But even if it ends up at 43 or 45% growth this year, that’s still remarkable under the circumstances.

Tesla have continued to execute amazingly well during extremely challenging conditions over the last 2 years. I expect them to continue to do that and I expect that the challenging conditions over the next 12 to 18 months will only continue to widen the gap between Tesla and the legacy OEMs.

Ignore the noise and just stay laser focused on the actual company performance and fundamentals. Choose your sources very carefully and don’t pay too much attention to idle speculation or unsubstantiated claims (either positive or negative).

Manage your expectations….we can all sometimes get over excited by the potential for Tesla (for good reason) and it’s easy to set unrealistic expectations, which results in disappointment if they don’t achieve what we expected. It’s bad enough when the fudsters set unrealistic expectations just to create a miss, so we need to be very careful not to do that to ourselves too!

Remember that every day there are new people driving a Tesla for the first time and we all know how powerful and transformative that experience can be…

I recently came across a series of videos by a guy from the UK who bought a Model Y back in June this year. He described himself as someone who is into cars….what we call a ‘petrolhead’ here in the UK….with a Porsche 911 in the garage (I think his fifth 911) and his wife has had a Porsche Macan SUV for the last 8 years. The Model Y was for his wife…..a reluctant purchase for both of them because it seemed the Porsche Macan EV was still some way off. They had previously tried a Jaguar I-Pace back in 2018, but that was short lived due to the “dire software interface” / “dire inefficiency of the vehicle and the range anxiety ”.

They were clearly sceptical going into this purchase and the first video is their initial reaction after 10 days of owning the Model Y:

Tesla Model Y Long Range 10 day initial impressions review England UK

Some direct quotes from the video:

“Shocked” “Speechless” “Puts to shame the suck/squeeze/bang/blow of ICE engines” “Everywhere you look there’s positives to this step, this move” “It just puts to lie the whole hundred years of ICE”

This transformation is a story we’ve heard many times over, but we sometimes forget and it’s good to be reminded from time to time….and coming from a die-hard petrolhead I think it carries more weight. He articulates his thoughts quite well and it’s interesting to see the transformation play out and the change in his thinking over a relatively short timeframe.

Tesla Model Y Long Range 3 month 4,000 mile U.K. review GB

“This car has been faultless” “I was fully expecting hassle and grief….and we’ve had nothing…there’s nothing to moan about” “This is a no fuss car” “She prefers driving this to the 911” “She’s gone from reluctant, not wanting it, to now preferring it to the 911…that’s pretty massive” “I don’t know how they’ve done it….it’s staggering” (referring to how light the Tesla feels compared to other EVs)
“There is no downside” “All of the functionality, absolutely brilliant” (referring to the pre-conditioning the car from the app) “When you live with this, you start to think and start to reflect that that’s like dinosaur, neanderthal technology” (pointing to his 911 in the garage) “It’s really, really eye-opening to me”

A few months in and he’s selling his Porsche 911 because he never uses it anymore…bearing in mind the Model Y is his wife’s car!

Tesla Model Y England U.K. - what next? 2nd EV?

“We have found that we’re sort of falling in love with this vehicle” “Utter performance, simplicity, reliability….everything” “We haven’t been using that” (referring to his 911)

This kind of story continues to happen all around the world and each one of these new ‘converts’ spreads the story to their friends and family.

I’m not worried about demand and Tesla has plenty of cards to play to keep that demand exceeding production for many years to come…