Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

To do that they should send a longer reply directly to Reuters. When the story says multiple things and you just call it wrong - nobody knows which part is wrong.

BTW, last quarter (?) there was a rumor about price cut. Tesla denied the rumor. Guess what .... Tesla did cut the price.

Stop it. We all know Tesla China was refuting the very specific bs about a 20% production cut for Model Y. Then we all know Tesla China refuted the very specific bs about about a Dec 25+ last week of December factory shutdown the following week. And then we all know Tesla refuted that last a second time for a total of 3 refutation statements. We also are all aware that ‘persons familiar with the matter’ is bunk more times than not.

Obviously, we’ve discussed to death about business being non-static, and unexpected business developments, osbourning, and regional incentive changes that end at inopportune times, and, and, and in regards to price fluidity for Tesla products. Gosh, the same kind of fluidity that happens at every other car manufacturer and dealership, but for some reason it’s special when Tesla does it.

If you want to be intellectually dishonest then by all means stand up and let that be known right this very second so that I can prepare my disagree posts for easy copy and paste.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Giga Texas hits 3K a week!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603478891728887822

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon has SpaceX, Tesla, Nuralink, Boring and Twitter as his 5 babies. He loves his eldest SpaceX, he loves his youngest Twtr. So Tesla is feeling the brunt it looks like (imagine alcoholic dad )
SpaceX got like 140B valuation last week. In theory, he should be able to get funds from the 1st 4 via some private equity channels. In theory and if he cared, he could sell equity in others and buy Tesla saying Tesla is under valued.

Share the love Elon

(BTW, guys if you think I ain't adding substance, feel free to add to ignore. Just simple guy, just saying common sense stuff and linking to other Tesla stuff on the net).

IMO Elon can always be found where the biggest problem/opportunity is.

Software is a lot easier than manufacturing, set it up right, then supporting good software is mostly relatively straightforward.

Telsa seems to be in great shape to me.

 

[Krugerrand]

You appear to be equating "well-intentioned criticism" with "turning," as if the former is some sort of traitorous behavior when it is the exact opposite.

No he wasn’t.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

More incentives to take delivery now rather than waiting until subsidies kick in.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603475816658370560

 

[MXWing]

In this case....he was right. Been pretty typical for TSLA to open up strong in a big macro down day, only to fade in the final two hours. Seeing the exact same thing today

A penny in the green is better than 4X QQQ in the red. Hoping for that.

It would be huge for sentiment, and much needed relief until the beating resumes tomorrow at 9:30 EST.

More incentives to take delivery now rather than waiting until subsidies kick in.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603475816658370560

More demand levers getting pulled. Not expensive for Tesla to offer. Hopefully its to "ensure a spectacular quarter" versus making a horrendous quarter less horrendous.

Speaking of which, what's the signal versus noise consensus on how we are going to do? I hear everything from it will break every record to there are lots full of cars that can't be moved due to interest rates.

My smooth brain tells me that I wouldn't be adding a third shift to Giga Berlin if there was weakness at any of the plants.

 

[Dig deeper]

His 140 price target looks on target by the way things are going. However, his reason was crap. His reason - demand China collapse, Europe reccession will effect demand, luxury good demand collapse in reccession, Inflation will remain high, Fed crashing market, etc.
So far, China demand seems strong, Europe demand seems untested, inflation is calming, but the Fed is crashing the market. One major factor that contribute TSLA being in the 150s is = well we all know what.
So yeah, lucky random price target.

There are very few things more dangerous in finance than being right for the wrong reasons. A lot of early success being another big one that goes to people's heads.

If he takes this situation with tsla stock as a confirmation of an accurate reading, he will no doubt build even more confidence in himself.

Next time - there is always a next time - he'll be convinced by his own awesomeness that he's not wrong (having been "proven" right before) and probably bet bigger. It's at that point that he'll most likely make a bad mistake.

Either way, "chicken bottom" sounds ironic enough to satisfy the market gods. Certainly better than "toilet brush (Spiegel) bottom".

"Most ironic outcome is the most likely outcome" - Musk.

People like chicken boy, who talk about their winners haven't been in the market long enough. Most good investors that stand the test of time talk more about their losers.... You know, so they can learn from their mistakes instead of taking worthless victory laps on the internet/media.

 

[hobbes]

Not sure if this was posted yet, rumor of GF Mexico:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603348918716071936

This sounds quite legit, especially after news of a dedicated border lane to the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon (where factory location is rumoured) from July: Tesla Now Has an Exclusive Lane at a US-Mexico Border Crossing

Google Translate of the local source with quite detailed info cited in the tweet: Tesla revelará su llegada Nuevo León a principios de 2023

Makes sense especially if parts of IRA only require location in North America (not only US) as was said above in this thread.

EDIT: Also well within reach of Tesla Semi from Giga Austin:

 

[EVNow]

Stop it.

Stop what ?

Are you the type now who closes ears and goes "la,la,la,la" ?

It doesn't matter what I & you think - I'm just talking about what I read ... and unlike you I've an open mind.

If you want to stop a rumor, do it properly.

 

[StealthP3D]

Whatever happened to the TSLA $100 swings?

Those will be coming to Tesla's website in Q1 2023. It's just a board painted red with knotted ropes stuck through two holes, but they will probably sell out in 25 minutes unless they price them at $175.

/s

 

[ElectricIAC]

More incentives to take delivery now rather than waiting until subsidies kick in.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603475816658370560

Depending on how they’re calculating that it very well could be 4,000 kWh of free supercharging.

That’s worth ~$1,000 assuming $.25 per unit averaged.

 

[thesmokingman]

Depending on how they’re calculating that it very well could be 4,000 kWh of free supercharging.

That’s worth ~$1,000 assuming $.25 per unit averaged.

That's free road trips for years!

 

[Curt Renz]

From my brokerage's newsfeed:

CFRA MAINTAINS STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF TESLA, INC.​

3:34 pm ET December 15, 2022 (CFRA)
We cut our 12-month target $75 to $225, based on a '24 P/E of 33x, justified by TSLA's long-term growth potential. Late Wednesday, an SEC filing showed that CEO Elon Musk sold an additional 22M TSLA shares for proceeds of $3.6B. We argue that a lower valuation is warranted given the recent ATM-like treatment of his TSLA shares to fund the Twitter turnaround. We continue to believe the sooner Musk appoints someone to take over the day-to-day operations at Twitter and assumes a chairman role, the better off TSLA investors will be. Still, TSLA's Y/Y EPS growth should be among the strongest in the Consumer Discretionary sector in 2023, driven by the ongoing ramp-up of the Austin and Berlin plants. We also think Tesla's U.S. vehicle sales have a tailwind from federal EV tax credits, which certain versions of the Model Y and Model 3 will be eligible for beginning January 1. This should allow the vehicles to remain the U.S.'s two best-selling EVs. Meanwhile, the Cybertruck boasts an industry-leading order backlog.

 

[ElectricIAC]

That's free road trips for years!

That really depends on what the expiry is too. Hopefully not 6mos! 2 years is fair.

 

[thesmokingman]

That really depends on what the expiry is too. Hopefully not 6mos! 2 years is fair.

It's in the article, two years.

 

[Prunesquallor]

"Tesla Electric”

Reported in Electrek, but this is the source material. More info about the pilot project in Texas (bold mine):

If you’re a Powerwall owner with retail choice in Texas, you can save on your electricity bills. You earn credits toward your bill when you contribute energy stored in your Powerwall to buffer the grid. As a member, you can also monitor the sources of your electricity supply 24/7 in the Tesla app and ensure that any electricity you use from the grid is offset with 100 percent Texas-generated renewable energy. On average, Tesla Electric members have the potential to earn over 50 percent more in credits on their electricity bills compared to similar plans.

Tesla Electric | Tesla

Tesla Electric is a retail electricity provider designed for vehicle and Powerwall owners. Learn more about Tesla Electric, eligibility, benefits and more.

www.tesla.com

 

[Mengy]

Giga Texas hits 3K a week!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603478891728887822

That's very good news.

 

[ElectricIAC]

It's in the article, two years.

TLDR but thanks.

I would burn through that in ~4-6 mos.

 

[thx1139]

That's very good news.

Good, but makes me think the goal of 5000 per week by end of year wont happen. Have we seen Berlin release this information?

 

[Krugerrand]

"Instead of hopping on the Internet to vent, to criticize, to speculate, to play amateur philosopher, to add fuel to the fire, practice being a more emotionally intelligent human being."

Is that advice for people on this board or for Elon?

It is advice for all humans.