Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Ain't that SP "special" today? A sure sign for me to find something else to do than stare at it. Gonna go take my frustrations out on the trails.

While I'm out, y'all have fun adding another twenty pages of hand-wringing to sift through when I get back.

P.S. just had a text from a friend who is considering selling some of his TSLA, concerned over the declining price. I gave him the facts about the Sterling company fundamentals and the share-stealing strategies being deployed, ending with the advice that he should only sell if he needs the money, and that he should get more information about things by spending some time in this forum.

 

[Discoducky]

We held off as there is a flood of competition coming

I've heard this before. Is this 'actual' competition or the equivalent of the Taycan?

 

[Tachyon]

What is the opposite of irrational exuberance?

I suppose it’s Rational despondence .

 

[tslalala]

What’s more - market rallies begin BEFORE the fed starts lowering interest rates, as the market see the signals in advance and begin pricing in rate drops before they happen.

You're right. The real question is how much lower will we go before we hit bottom

 

[wtlloyd]

Most common theories are the push to try and miss the 50% projected growth by as little as possible-- or that there's some sort of refresh of HW (radar, maybe cameras/driving computer) coming in January and they want to clear as much old HW inventory as they possibly can. Could be some of both, or neither. The fact that they appear to now be offering discounts in Canada and the EU though seems to support one or both of these above simply the "avoid IRA delays" theory that was floating when 3750 came out.





As noted repeatedly, he absolutely could be selling if there was a 10b5-1 plan in place to do so-- not saying he is, but blackout period does not prevent that.

It may be that their distribution network is being strained. Will they lose vendors/drivers if they allow delivery transport to drop? Do they have contracts negotiated based on guaranteed volumes of shipments? Do they have fixed shipping expenses that will continue regardless of how many actual vehicles are moved? How well are they able to resolve shipment backlog of several weeks on top of increasing production that is already making new demands?
It's very possible the reasons for the discounts, keeping vehicles moving out of the factory and into customer's hands, are not embroiled in quarterly report numbers.

Everybody's looking for their keys under the light, not where they lost them.

 

[corduroy]

Who would have thought Chicken's price target was wrong for being too bullish.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Who would have thought Chicken's price target was wrong for being too bullish.

Market Manipulators and TSLAQ.

And lots of whiny haters, some of who are still buying because a deal is a deal.

 

[tslalala]

Don't know why Tesla won't just give out EAP for free. That has zero impact on margins, tho not that the last 9 days of deliveries will make a difference in margins with the discount.

Along these lines, Tesla should give like 1, 2, or 3 months of EAP for free - just enough for people to get used to it and realize the value of EAP. Then they'll either subscribe monthly or buy it outright

 

[Moon Buggy]

I can't imagine how bad morale must be with the regular workers at this company right now. I assume a lot of them have a lot riding on the stock price, which continues to plummet on a daily basis faster than anyone would have thought possible. Meanwhile, the CEO--at least from a public perception standpoint--seems highly distracted and more concerned with advancing a right wing agenda than with advancing the goals of the company. And now you have a round of layoffs on top of that. There has to be a sizable portion of the Tesla workforce that are asking themselves what they're still doing there.

I bought more shares today anyway.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It's pretty clear we are now in a self-reinforcing downward spiral, fed by demand and other kinds of FUD, bad macros (today), margin calls, agressive shorting and weak hands. Completely decoupled from fundamentals. What should be news is Tesla Energy, but what is news is all kinds of garbage people love to lap up.

I bought again yesterday (120 shares) and will continue to do so if we go down more. This is the opportunity of the century, even if we have not reached the bottom.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Along these lines, Tesla should give like 1, 2, or 3 months of EAP for free - just enough for people to get used to it and realize the value of EAP. Then they'll either subscribe monthly or buy it outright

Isn’t EAP kneecapped on the non USS cars? That is NOT the representation of the software suite I would want if I were running the show.

 

[bballshinobi]

You're right. The real question is how much lower will we go before we hit bottom

In the eyes of an normie investor Tesla is now: A growth car company that has declining growth (China concern + USA price cuts) in a recessionary period while employing a part time CEO.

How low can we get? Normal car companies have PE around 8-12 right? I think we are still around 30-40. We went up irrationally due to short squeeze and gamma squeeze so we can definitely go down irrationally by the same forces too.

 

[tslalala]

It appears to me that the stock price is pricing in 25 to 30 percent annual growth rate. If Tesla achieves 45 percent growth and more importantly give guidance of 40 percent growth or more without significant margin impairement, the stock will pop.

Keep in mind that Wall Street will NOT give Tesla the benefit of the doubt, especially in bear markets. They will be ruthlessly negative. Unfortunately, we TMC'ers assume rational players in the stock market, but this is not true.

 

[Gray Man]

In for 200 more at $129.50...

Here's to hoping it all works out!

 

[transpondster]

Tesla Model Y vs VW Beetle

Will Tesla Model Y beat the Beetle?

beetle.teslastats.no

Model Y is about to overtake Beetle as the most sold car in a year record in Norway, 11 to go

 

[dl003]

We're approaching the 100 Monthly EMA @120. TSLA bounced off this support in 2019. We're about as OS as we were back then.

 

[EVforLiPo]

You're right. The real question is how much lower will we go before we hit bottom

Obviously no one knows that answer. Here are the facts.

We are in a downtrend so most likely more downside
We can go A LOT lower. $100, $90, $80, $70, $60, $40, $20?? they are all possible.
Just don't use margin and ride TSLA down to whatever price the market wants it to be.

I love watching Peter Lynch talk about Kaiser Industries; it went down from $29 to $4 and his first buy was $15.75

 

[elasalle]

Who would have thought Chicken's price target was wrong for being too bullish.

or Troy's US demand softness (for 4Q) was reality

 

[H Mak]

There have also been significant discounts offered on existing inventory in parts of Europe, although people in this thread said they were only seeing it on demo vehicles in their areas

Still the case in the UK. There are no discounted Model 3s other than demo cars, and only 3 discounted Model Ys which are not demo cars. Discount on one of them is £3k on a £66K base price i.e. 4.5%.

And while I was checking that I also picked up 10 shares @ $130. At these prices they might as well just give them away

 

[Nocturnal]

TSLA forward PE is lower than Hershey's now.