Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tslalala]

Megapack is sold out until Q3 2024

View attachment 887851

Darn. I hope this isn't due to chip shortages still, since we supposedly don't have any battery cell supply constraints anymore.

 

[Nocturnal]

Oh man, I am so sorry to hear about your situation. I’m down a bunch too, but I’ve avoided margin so have only “LOST” a small percentage permanently due to some short term options bets.

Your story does make me wonder if some of this is self induced collectively. I’ve seen so so many posts talking about people pulling money out of the couch and people using margin. As the SP plummeted, I have to wonder if it set off a chain reaction of margin calls pulling the price down over and over again as people were forced to sell at a loss. Each time Tesla hit a lower price point, more margin calls came in and more shares had to be liquidated.

I’ve seen it here with a few posters. Tesla has millions of retail investors with billions invested.

We got fat and lazy/greedy. (not all of us) Same mistakes the bears made a few times along the way. I'm darn sure that they are making that same mistake again and hodling their shorts hoping it goes even lower instead of covering and/or going long.

 

[wombat9]

At the risk that others have already written it: GM, Rivian, Nio are also completely under water.

Of course, it's a pity that Tesla is seen as a car share today ;-) Very handy for the shorts.

Well, at least the news has now reached Elon and I hope he behaves himself from now on.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Nothing irrational about Wall Street's pessimism - it's self-perpetuating and self-propagating, just like increasing weekly buys of TSLA puts continues to force our TSLA share price down. There is no optimism for macro economic conditions until possibly the 2nd half of 2023. Until then, we need to buckle up. In the long term I think we'll be fine and even in a better position since other auto manufacturers will not survive the upcoming global recession.

Two words. Bail out. Most other manufacturers have zero worries about going broke. Especially not GM or Ford. Stellantis might be a little tricky as it’s more of a European company now.

Jmho.

 

[tslalala]

I agree Tesla is positioned beautifully to weather any deep recession we might experience. They have immense pricing power with the margins they have. Still, 2023 could be an extremely bumpy ride for TSLA what with possible crashing auto markets and Tesla pulling levers to keep sales up, which could become a huge hit to margins.

OR, next year might be a pleasant recovery year with the market going up and everything running fine. We'll all find out over the next couple of months, we just have to hold on no matter what happens.

For better or for worse, it's been much easier to hold onto my TSLA shares thanks you and the rest of our TMC family. Strength in numbers, my friend

 

[elasalle]

Hope Fed has seen enough blood on the streets

 

[tslalala]

We got fat and lazy/greedy. (not all of us) Same mistakes the bears made a few times along the way. I'm darn sure that they are making that same mistake again and hodling their shorts hoping it goes even lower instead of covering and/or going long.

Great observation. We all definitely got caught on the greed side of the fence this year. Now fear is striking us. I really hope and pray for a minor recession and a quick bounce back if Jay Powell acknowledges he's been using fake/inaccurate jobs numbers and relents on the rate increases for longer.

 

[Singuy]

Not sure if they still are, I would think semi is eating all the cells from Reno. Not sure though.

Scraping one production line that have hit positive margins for another production line with negative margins will put Elon in anaphylaxis shock from such an allergic response.

 

[ElectricIAC]

It feels like they are trying real hard, using up all their powder.

What happens when the llelo runs out?

 

[dhanson865]

You laugh, but the Model 3 and to a large extent the Model Y were built valuing form over function to a large degree.

Cybertruck was designed to put function (and manufacturability) before form.

I suspect the vehicle which is penned to be the RoboTaxi will similarly put function before form. If smaller tires offer better range, there is a good chance it’ll have smaller tires. Not because of any marketing lever they are trying to push, but because the goal is indeed to keep costs down and deliver the best car possible.

This by itself might create a natural differentiation between the Model Y and the new car since as you suggest, some people may be willing to pay a premium to buy a more traditional looking vehicle.

Not smaller tires, smaller wheels.

People that don't understand tires think tires on a 15" wheel are smaller than tires on a 18" wheel. But if it's the same car the outer diameter is the same, and the 15" inner diameter tire actually has more rubber on the sidewall than the 18" inner diameter tire.

So it's not that smaller tires give better range, it's that smaller wheels give better range.

The why of that gets into the weeds, I could write a very long explanation, the point is there are multiple reasons why and I just want to be sure you know I'm talking about smaller wheels not smaller tires.

 

[tslalala]

I can't imagine how bad morale must be with the regular workers at this company right now. I assume a lot of them have a lot riding on the stock price, which continues to plummet on a daily basis faster than anyone would have thought possible. Meanwhile, the CEO--at least from a public perception standpoint--seems highly distracted and more concerned with advancing a right wing agenda than with advancing the goals of the company. And now you have a round of layoffs on top of that. There has to be a sizable portion of the Tesla workforce that are asking themselves what they're still doing there.

I bought more shares today anyway.

Great observation, @Moon Buggy . I'm much less concerned about TSLA's bad optics with the mainstream media and much more concerned about bad optics with Tesla employees.

 

[ElectricIAC]

bad optics with Tesla employees.

They will be replaced with robots.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

According to this the global installed grid battery capacity stands at 16GWh, in 2021.

Grid-Scale Storage – Analysis - IEA

Grid-Scale Storage - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

I must be shell shocked from the stock price today, this can’t be right or is it? If that 16GWh is right than the facility in Lathrop is going to more than double that in a year.

Well, EIA (well known bad forecasters, but not the IEA) forecast that the USA will be at 9.2GW (note power, not capacity) by end of 2022, with another 20.8GW coming 2023 to 2025.

Frequency response market is now being taken over by batteries trying to get the high current prices, but with the coming volume and likely price drops it won't be long before they'll target the energy markets more.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Two words. Bail out. Most other manufacturers have zero worries about going broke. Especially not GM or Ford. Stellantis might be a little tricky as it’s more of a European company now.

Jmho.

Most other manufacturers' SENIOR MANAGEMENT - plenty of people will get hurt, pensioners, employees, suppliers. Bailing out will be harder this time if the pretend "doing all we can to switch to EVs" isn't believed. My opinion is that soon, there will be huge holes in demand for legacy ICE companies' products.

The managers are the decision makers, but the writing is on the wall to any financiers, suppliers, buyers of debts including auto loans etc

 

[Gray Man]

Edit: Weird weird weird. This post quoted the wrong post originally. I must have hit the wrong button. Fixed:

Oh man, I am so sorry to hear about your situation. I’m down a bunch too, but I’ve avoided margin so have only “LOST” a small percentage permanently due to some short term options bets.

Your story does make me wonder if some of this is self induced collectively. I’ve seen so so many posts talking about people pulling money out of the couch and people using margin. As the SP plummeted, I have to wonder if it set off a chain reaction of margin calls pulling the price down over and over again as people were forced to sell at a loss. Each time Tesla hit a lower price point, more margin calls came in and more shares had to be liquidated.

I’ve seen it here with a few posters. Tesla has millions of retail investors with billions invested.

No margin for me ever, ever, ever. I have no crystal ball, and I have enough other things going on in my life that can distract me from daily monitoring of my portfolio. Maybe I'm a bit too conservative, but then again, after the last couple of months I have been moving almost all of my non-retirement stuff into TSLA... I'm already getting twitchy about "eggs" and "one basket". BUT... I just absolutely believe this will be turning around in the long run.

Since I wasn't in years ago, seems like now is the best opportunity for someone like me to enjoy the TSLA ride...

 

[GOVA]

Even the OG's are feeling the pinch ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605958795691061248

Nothing beats posting my real name on fitter and then saying what I do with my dough.

 

[tslalala]

This price is clearly insane. Market must be in total fear mode. Unless people think a meteor is about to hit, why on earth would they sell at this price? Surely this is short sellers and market makers trying to force a lot of retail investors on margin out of the game altogether?
Absolutely incredible. Will have a good think over the Christmas break, but very tempted to sell 50% of every other stock I own, regardless of price, to buy more TSLA.
At these prices its just insane.
This cannot be rational investors selling

Keep in mind @cliff harris that there are probably a lot of newer, retail buyers who got in to TSLA at $400, $350, $300, or heck, even at $200 that are severely underwater right now and may need the cash for immediate bills, medical emergencies, etc. Those of us who have owned 10+ years can sweat some more downside, but not so much for newer TSLA investors. I feel for them and their pain is even much greater than ours.

 

[GOVA]

Hope Fed has seen enough blood on the streets

LOL

Amount of boold is irrelevant to them as they are in bed with you know who.

 

[traxila]

Hope Fed has seen enough blood on the streets

FED only cares about inflation and cracking the labor market.

Maybe if it goes down another 10% to 15% they might care about the equity market.

 

[mach-edriver]

Great observation. We all definitely got caught on the greed side of the fence this year. Now fear is striking us. I really hope and pray for a minor recession and a quick bounce back if Jay Powell acknowledges he's been using fake/inaccurate jobs numbers and relents on the rate increases for longer.

I too would love see a break from the hikes, but why do you say that the job numbers are fake or inaccurate.