Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

WeBull says 4.23M, CNBS 9.1M

I could imagine WeBull is counting the sell/buy as a single transaction, CNBS counting each separately, that's the only explanation I have as WeBull is usually around half the CNBS volume

My source quoted for TSLA pre-market volume is NASDAQ itself:

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes | Nasdaq

 

[Singuy]

Do we know what is happening with Chinese production? If sales have decreased, is inventory staying locally or are all of those vehicles on ships? If it’s that latter, do the number of outbound ships from Shanghai seem consistent with that?

Local inventory is probably low as Tesla updated their website to ordering to be delivered in 1-4weeks a few days back vs saying end of December.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Let's play

 

[CorneliusXX]

It'll be back up to ~25% (less some small dilution since Apr 2018)

Tesla Investor Relations

PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 23, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla today announced a new 10-year CEO performance award for Elon Musk with vesting entirely contingent on achieving market cap and operational milestones that would make Tesla one of the most valuable companies in the world.

ir.tesla.com

The big issue is when Elon chooses to excercise those options after they vest (only 1 tranche yet to vest of the 12).

Some say Elon is better off to wait til near the end of the eligibiltiy period (2028) to maximize his capital gains. Others say Elon should excercise soon while the SP is (relatively) low to minimize his income tax payable.

What is NOT discussed is the effect the at SP at exercise has on Tesla's payroll tax for Elon's CEO comp. package. Seems to me, the lower the SP at excercise, the less total tax Tesla will owe on behalf of of Elon. This issue was a significant one earlier this year when Elon excercised his 2012 CEO stock options. IIRC, Tesla had to pay on the order of $500M in payroll taxes for Elon.

Paging @The Accountant @mongo

Does the Form 4 only recognise vested options when they are exercised? I was assuming vested options would show up in the "beneficial ownership" but haven't done any research on it. Perhaps they're just considered "derivative securities" until they are exercised and are therefore excluded.

 

[matejpi]

Waiting for mandatory morning drop with 115 order...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Waiting for mandatory morning drop with 115 order...

You could get it soon. I thought China covid relief would be helpful, but they just turned it into a Jan slowing story.
Who keeps moving the goal post?

 

[tslalala]

Looks like they jumped the gun on that extra 3,750 incentive. Could have waited ... anyway, good to hear.

From what others reported in this TMC thread, the $3,750 incentive was available to all people while the $7,500 was incentive only for those who had reservations, were able to pickup, but had not yet picked up.

 

[Tachyon]

You could get it soon. I thought China covid relief would be helpful, but they just turned it into a Jan slowing story.
Who keeps moving the goal post?

Doesn’t matter where the goal post is , when the goal keeper is distracted.

 

[mongo]

It'll be back up to ~25% (less some small dilution since Apr 2018)

Tesla Investor Relations

PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 23, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla today announced a new 10-year CEO performance award for Elon Musk with vesting entirely contingent on achieving market cap and operational milestones that would make Tesla one of the most valuable companies in the world.

ir.tesla.com

The big issue is when Elon chooses to excercise those options after they vest (only 1 tranche yet to vest of the 12).

Some say Elon is better off to wait til near the end of the eligibiltiy period (2028) to maximize his capital gains. Others say Elon should excercise soon while the SP is (relatively) low to minimize his income tax payable.

What is NOT discussed is the effect the at SP at exercise has on Tesla's payroll tax for Elon's CEO comp. package. Seems to me, the lower the SP at excercise, the less total tax Tesla will owe on behalf of of Elon. This issue was a significant one earlier this year when Elon excercised his 2012 CEO stock options. IIRC, Tesla had to pay on the order of $500M in payroll taxes for Elon.

Paging @The Accountant @mongo

Elon will likely need to sell 50% or so shares at exercise to cover basis and taxes. So of the original 12% plan, he'll net 6% bringing him back to ~20% of total TSLA shares.
@The Accountant is better on the tax side, but Tesla gets hit with their half of FICA (from options appreciation as income) as payroll tax (as does Elon) and Tesla records a deduction due to the cost of the award.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does the Form 4 only recognise vested options when they are exercised? I was assuming vested options would show up in the "beneficial ownership" but haven't done any research on it. Perhaps they're just considered "derivative securities" until they are exercised and are therefore excluded.

I'm not @The Accountant ( not even @mongo ), but from what I've heard vested shares which have not yet been excercised show up in the "Fully-Diluted EPS" reported in quarterly financial reports.

HTH.

 

[StealthP3D]

Anyone have better insights with this? Tool upgrade ? Chinese New Year?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607684201385725953

Probably shortages from their suppliers due to COVID. When you have a factory capable of cranking out cars this fast, you need a steady stream of components and raw materials. COVID broke that and Tesla can't just magically make the parts and materials appear on demand.

 

[mongo]

From what others reported in this TMC thread, the $3,750 incentive was available to all people while the $7,500 was incentive only for those who had reservations, were able to pickup, but had not yet picked up.

$7,500 was open to all via the website.
It was needed due to Treasury's guidance that the $7,500 pack sized based credit would stay active until (or after) they release guidance in March.

 

[SOULPEDL]

From what others reported in this TMC thread, the $3,750 incentive was available to all people while the $7,500 was incentive only for those who had reservations, were able to pickup, but had not yet picked up.

Sounds like our situation. We received the 7,500 offer and did not have a VIN yet, only the RN (but we put a hold on it recently). Interestingly, there was new inventory for my exact order locally, leading me to believe that was to be my vehicle. It's gone now... we'll live. Cybertruck?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Waiting for mandatory morning drop with 115 order...

How many we talkin here?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Welcome to Capitulation day/week/mth.

Today's Pre-market Volume of 10.5M shares was the 3rd highest in my 7+ years of data. Only Feb-24-2022 (w. 125K more trades) and Nov-10-2022 (at +1.0M) had higher pre-market volume than today, Dec 27, 2022:

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes​

Data last updated Dec 27, 2022 09:30 AM ET.
This page will resume updating on Dec 28, 2022 04:00 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$116.56 -6.59 (-5.35%)
Pre-Market Volume	10,503,623
Pre-Market High	$125 (04:00:00 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$115.61 (08:00:03 AM)

 

[wtlloyd]

From what others reported in this TMC thread, the $3,750 incentive was available to all people while the $7,500 was incentive only for those who had reservations, were able to pickup, but had not yet picked up.

"Take delivery of a new Model 3 or Model Y between December 21 and 31, 2022 for a $7,500 credit and 10,000 miles of free Supercharging."

That's the offer, and available for any car in inventory (MY and M3).

It was crazy, I would be texting with a sales person about a car available on screen and by the time they looked at it the screen would freeze and on refresh the car would be gone. They were trying to switch my sales order to one of the cars so that my deposit and FSD price remained the same, and then the car would disappear. Happened 3 times over 2 days, different locations all over CA.

It was a feeding frenzy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Doesn’t matter where the goal post is , when the goal keeper is distracted.

Haha, good sports analogy! Here's another one:

"It doesn’t matter where the goal posts are, when the Referee is playing goal."​

/s

 

[EVforLiPo]

How many we talkin here?

View attachment 889197

Give it some time we will make new lows. I'm looking for that 10% to 30% down day with one billion in volume. That's what I call capitulation.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

From what others reported in this TMC thread, the $3,750 incentive was available to all people while the $7,500 was incentive only for those who had reservations, were able to pickup, but had not yet picked up.

The $7500 incentive applies to new 3/Y orders too (provided they can take delivery before 31). There is basically no inventory around major metros from what i can tell. Would be pretty difficult at this point to make a new order, have factory build and deliver it by 12/31/2022 at this point under most circumstances.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Probably shortages from their suppliers due to COVID. When you have a factory capable of cranking out cars this fast, you need a steady stream of components and raw materials. COVID broke that and Tesla can't just magically make the parts and materials appear on demand.

Haha, it's even more likely that its nothing! Tesla simply aligning the holiday to the normal workweek schedule, with 1 day before/after the official holiday. Since many employees likely have to travel from distant parts of the country to return to work, this is an HR morale bonus!