Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

So, would it be in the ball park to est Elon's cost to execute all his tranches at ~8B? And further, his income tax bill if SP at exercise ~$95 would be about $10B?

Gee, he could do that in cash if he 'flipped the bird' (nose to the grindstone, ol' son)...

... and that'd be thumbing his nose at Wall St.

Cherry!

304 million shares, basis 350.02/3/5 = $23.33
Taxes: fed: 37%, medicare: 1.625% (half of 1.45 plus 0.9), CA 13.3% *(4/5 rough residence proration) = 49.27% call it 50.

At a SP of 95 he loses 25% of his shares to basis.
Gross: 304*(95-23.33) = $21.8 B
21.8B * 50% = 10.9B taxes, 10.9B net
10.9B = 115 million shares post exercise.

At 200:
304*(200-23.33) = 53.7B gross
50% after tax = 26.85B net
= 134 million shares post exercise

Note: the payroll tax to Tesla is predominately their half of the 1.45% medicare tax or 0.725%. $158M at $95 or $389M at $200 a share.

 

[Nate the Great]

It’s mouse nuts. What’s the ASP of the cars x whatever # of cars and what’s it do to the bottom line vs inventory? Ie., 10,000 cars x $50,000 is 1/2B. And how is each situation going to be perceived by everyone who can’t see past the end of their noses? And how might each situation affect the SP? And which one of us is more concerned about how Tesla is currently being perceived?

If it’s all right with you, we can continue to disagree in silence.

It’s mouse nuts. What’s the ASP of the cars x whatever # of cars and what’s it do to the bottom line vs inventory? Ie., 10,000 cars x $50,000 is 1/2B. And how is each situation going to be perceived by everyone who can’t see past the end of their noses? And how might each situation affect the SP? And which one of us is more concerned about how Tesla is currently being perceived?

If it’s all right with you, we can continue to disagree in silence.

Krugerrand,

What is your take on current market conditions?

Has Elon commented on it?

Are you trading options through it?

Thank you,

 

[cdub]

I think it will crash quick once it breaks thru 100 but I still have feeling it will settle down around mid 70’s.

Mid seventies would mean by 9 year return would go from over 400% to zero. Wah wah wah. Should have taken some gains but I HODL

 

[Chartered321]

if you really believe that then you should put your $$$$ in cash. some banks are brokerages are paying a very good rate right now vs. losing 10% a day in TSLA stock

Past returns are not a proxy of future ones unfortunately

 

[StealthP3D]

Mid seventies would mean by 9 year return would go from over 400% to zero. Wah wah wah. Should have taken some gains but I HODL

Would you say you are bad at math, or simply bad at trading?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Well, my portfolio isn’t doing so well, but my ignore list doubled today.

 

[EVMeister]

talk to the CEO here, he is the one dumping billions and billions in stock and leveraging more stock all cause he wanted to unban filthy people and spend $44B on a company barely worth 10B.

is it a good sign when a CEO dumps billions of stock?

When the CEO explains that it is to free up cash in case of a bad recession, then yes it is a good sign. For Tesla, the company. He has no fear that Tesla will struggle during the recession, but the same can't be said for certain other ventures of his.

 

[2101Guy]

talk to the CEO here, he is the one dumping billions and billions in stock and leveraging more stock all cause he wanted to unban filthy people and spend $44B on a company barely worth 10B.

is it a good sign when a CEO dumps billions of stock?

but he promised (again) that he wont sell anymore!

 

[2daMoon]

Krugerrand,

What is your take on current market conditions?

Has Elon commented on it?

Are you trading options through it?

Thank you,

Perhaps, an option you haven't considered is to avoid asking option advice from people who have been clear that those Homies don't play dat.

There is another thread for options strategies...

 

[15Peter20]

market manipulation? more like a bubble bursting. TSLA was never worth 1.3T in market cap. that was always absurd. add to it the CEO destroying the brand. people view us tesla drivers are a-hole now thanks to Elon's antics

You seem to be strong, male and possessed of high intelligence.

 

[@heist80]

When the CEO explains that it is to free up cash in case of a bad recession, then yes it is a good sign. For Tesla, the company. He has no fear that Tesla will struggle during the recession, but the same can't be said for certain other ventures of his.

my friend stop being delusional. there is a SINGLE public stock out there where any shareholder ever said it was bullish that a CEO dumps billions in stock to fund other ventures. it is scary how much personal emotions many are displaying in this thread. it really is a cult

 

[EVMeister]

my friend stop being delusional. there is a SINGLE public stock out there where any shareholder ever said it was bullish that a CEO dumps billions in stock to fund other ventures. it is scary how much personal emotions many are displaying in this thread. it really is a cult

Delusional? I understand his reasoning and have an open mind. You on the other hand... You think Elon is a liar and has sold Tesla stock for what reason exactly?

 

[AndrewZ]

Wow 35 TTM PE on a company growing 40% YOY after a ‘disastrous‘ year.

No one cares about the IRA margin explosion in both cars and batteries In 2023.

No one cares about the exploding energy storage division which finally has batteries and factories.

No one cares about the upcoming Cybertruck, poised to blow brains globally.

No one cares about the huge moat Tesla possesses with the best charging network in the world.

No one cares about the FSD which still needs work but is at least on par with the best in the world.

No one cares about the best manufacturing technologies in the world, both for cars and batteries.

No one cares about the ramp in the semi division.

No one cares about the Optimii in the future.

No one cares about the upcoming 25K (or so. Anything 30 and below will be crushing to ICE) model that will be untouchable by OEMs at that price point.

No one cares.

Time to buy. Tesla deserves this undervaluation by any metric unless it stops cold growing right now. Even then at current run rate maintained PE will go below 20 in a year. 25 with aggressive price cuts. With no growth at all.

Best thing EM did was wiping the balance sheet clean. Can’t imagine the hysterical FUD that would be out there with Tesla carrying even one tenth the average debt of an OEM.

Don’t know if I’d be buying while people are being margin called and margin in general is being purged from the system, which along with options activity is likely a big driver of all this.

I don’t think there’s any rush tbh

 

[cliff harris]

Elon has ZERO credibility at this point. he is a LIAR and has backstabbed everyone who supported him. nothing he says will help aside from saying "I resign as CEO"

Please sell your shares. The investment community doesn't need people who only own shares in companies where they 100% agree with every political opinion of the CEO. Buy stock in APPL instead, where they literally use Chinese riot police on their (conveniently outsourced) workers.

 

[EVMeister]

but he promised (again) that he wont sell anymore!

Learn what the word "planned" means. No stock sales were PLANNED - true at the time no doubt, so that was not a lie.

 

[DanCar]

Elon has ZERO credibility at this point. he is a LIAR and has backstabbed everyone who supported him. nothing he says will help aside from saying "I resign as CEO"

Hello negative nancy, It is hard to misconstrue when someone posts details of past production numbers, although agree Elon has zero credibility when it comes to future predictions about FSD.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Elon has ZERO credibility at this point. he is a LIAR and has backstabbed everyone who supported him. nothing he says will help aside from saying "I resign as CEO"

Does Tmc have a max amount of people that can be put on ignore?

 

[JRP3]

Curious - I guess, then, what's the purpose of posting that assumption to this forum...?

There are plenty of first hand accounts on TMC of people canceling orders and/or saying they will not buy again. You can weigh the impact of those claims but it's not just an assumption.

 

[AndrewZ]

Learn what the word "planned" means. No stock sales were PLANNED - true at the time no doubt, so that was not a lie.

I’m sure Elon would elaborate on all the reasons his claiming there are no further planned sales does not mean there will be no further sales, but that pesky tweet character limit

 

[traxila]

Don’t know if I’d be buying while people are being margin called and margin in general is being purged from the system, which along with options activity is likely a big driver of all this.

I don’t think there’s any rush tbh

As usual the answer lies in your time horizon.

Don’t listen to me.

IMO buying here means great returns unless Tesla sales growth stops and grinds down into future.