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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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so i looked at all the major historical lows of tsla: Feb 2016, December 2016, June 2019 and March 2020: in all cases, with zero exception you had to have volume slightly higher than day before-which is exactly what happened today. does this mean we are all clear: certainly not. there is a small possibility that we may have a few more days of selling left, even a lower low than $108. it is entirely possible that if P&D disappoints then we make a lower low, even break $100 temporarily. however, odds are that today was the low. i would state about 90% probability.
for those who are LTBH it makes zero difference.
for some, like yours truly, it makes a world of difference in that i will be watching very closely what happens next
it's always good to have a strategy.
say you don't believe in TA and think it is all gibberish. fair enough. so you hold TSLA for 20 years straight and then one fine year it goes down -50 to -70%
that would be fine if you are in your 50s but not so cool if you are in your 70s or 80s
so i see little downside in knowing how other market participants think.
TA does help with that, to a limited extent.
like EKG does not dictate entire treatment plan but is extremely helpful, especially when abnormal
 
I wondered the same. I feel that unwinding the wave may have been put on hold in favour of a blowout Q4.
Agree 100%... if you just read the last 3 pages of this thread, there is enough anecdotal evidence to suggest just that, and perhaps some people on the inside at Tesla who know the actual P&D's for Q4, might be laughing at the stock price thinking the MSM and shorts are about to get punched below the belt.
 
It's something of an in-joke. Many years ago (2015?) somebody (not Elon) at Tesla, I think on a quarterly conference call, referred to the growth as reckless. I think instead of relentless.

I don't remember now - only that it was a source of great humor for awhile.
Jerome Guillan, not a native English speaker (French Canadian I believe), filling in for Elon at an event. Yes, he meant relentless, which it has proven to be.
 

Big institutional investor (whale) may have completed its selling today:

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Jerome Guillan, not a native English speaker (French Canadian I believe), filling in for Elon at an event. Yes, he meant relentless, which it has proven to be.
Well, word-player that I am, I always have chosen to think he was trying to say "wreckless". But, alas, deep down I knew yours to be the correct interpretation.


Just not quite so fun.
 
I suspect that the P&D numbers will only marginally move the share price. It will be spun negatively. I am sure the FUD pieces have already been written.

Now the 4th QRTR & Year-end profit numbers (and conference call) are another story altogether.
That should hit it out of the park.
Regarding delivery numbers...what became of all those Teslas on the docks in China on Wuwa's recent video while the two ROROs were waiting to load...

That was a very sizeable number of cars just siting there. I can't imagine those will all be loaded, delivered, unloaded, and sold before January 1st.
 
TSLA hit a two-year low this morning, during the session with the heaviest trading volume within that period. Then it proceeded to close up by 3.3% amid no significant Tesla news, while the popular averages closed well down. TSLA continued to rise nicely in after-hours trading. It appears that capitulation was completed this morning. Today’s trading may have started to trumpet all-clear for TSLA. We should know better in the coming days.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but that didn't look like any kind of capitulation that I've ever seen.
 
It's something of an in-joke. Many years ago (2015?) somebody (not Elon) at Tesla, I think on a quarterly conference call, referred to the growth as reckless. I think instead of relentless.

I don't remember now - only that it was a source of great humor for awhile.

Regardless of whether the growth is "reckless" or "relentless", I'm still not following how your list of 5 levers that could be used to "juice demand" would help sales growth at all. The original question stands, where would Tesla get the additional units to sell?
 
There could be 10x BYD out there, doesn't matter - there's no "EV market", just the car market, and it's huge... sure, you would expect ICE to survive a while in less developed countries…
Recall that cell phones leapfrogged landline phones is some less developed countries (and that many of these countries do not have the per capita installed base of ICE vehicles).

There are reasons to believe EV’s will be similarly advantaged in less developed countries (LDC’s):

* Solar is cheap and getting cheaper. Solar can be sited remotely. Many LDC’s are closer to the equator than many developed countries and, so, have relatively more sun. Solar competes there with a less robust and, presumably, a less politically influential fossil fuel base than in developed countries (there are exceptions of course).

* EV’s require far less maintenance and, hence, have both a lower cost and a smaller attendant logistics trail. The latter reduces the required number of expert mechanics and repair shops as well as the amount of parts shipping and storage.

* There a fewer entrenched dealers to combat.

* Robotaxis will enable more transportation to be squeezed out of fewer vehicles. The high utilization will make vehicles more affordable and competitive by spreading costs across more people. Fewer people will need to bear the cost of learning to drive. People forbidden to drive or engage a car with a driver who is a stranger (meaning women in some countries) will have access to safe and reliable transport.

* The fossil fuel base may be even more fragile than in developed countries. That is, gas stations may become uneconomic, even if the cost of fuels goes to zero, if ICE vehicles sharing the stations become sufficiently sparse.

Hmm, there’s at least a Masters thesis in this, if not a doctoral dissertation.
 
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The Reuters article still says…”Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 442,452 vehicles in the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv data”.

How can the same group of analysts that have said they see signs of China demand being soft, and US demand being pushed into next year with inventory building up, you know, a demand problem for Q4, project a quarter that smashes both year-ago-quarter results as well as quarter-over-quarter results with dramatic percentage number increases? Particularly perplexing considering that last quarter smashed all existing results.

It's almost as if they are all working together to take the shine off Tesla's impressive production and sales growth by saying it's going to underperform, and then defining quarterly underperformance as smashing all the old records by an impressive margin. 🤪
 
How can the same group of analysts that have said they see signs of China demand being soft, and US demand being pushed into next year with inventory building up, you know, a demand problem for Q4, project a quarter that smashes both year-ago-quarter results as well as quarter-over-quarter results with dramatic percentage number increases? Particularly perplexing considering that last quarter smashed all existing results.

It's almost as if they are all working together to take the shine off Tesla's impressive production and sales growth by saying it's going to underperform, and then defining quarterly underperformance as smashing all the old records by an impressive margin. 🤪
Rinse and repeat every qtr. These analysts must subscribe to Troy's patreon.
 
It's almost as if they are all working together to take the shine off Tesla's impressive production and sales growth by saying it's going to underperform, and then defining quarterly underperformance as smashing all the old records by an impressive margin. 🤪
They are all working together to screw retail investors out of money in the short term, but will get burned 🔥 in the end. Pun intended
 
Rinse and repeat every qtr. These analysts must subscribe to Troy's patreon.
Let’s lay off of Troy.

Not his fault people labeled him the oracle so that they can game his predictions.

If you really don’t like him, don’t talk about him.

I am happy for him on his hustle. TMC member gone out and made good.