Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cattledog]

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By a super simplistic look of this, should we be wondering 'Where's Tesla Credit/Financing?'

 

[petit_bateau]

At roughly 200 Wh/Kg for LFP cells, that annual 40 GWh of batteries is roughly 200 Million Kg, or 200 thousand tons of battery cells. These are likely shipping via container ships from China to the Port of Stockton, CA currently. Lathrop is 12 highway miles from the Port of Stockton. That's likely how Tesla receives this kind of ocean-going tonnage:



Getting 200K tons from China to Lathrop each year is substantially cheaper than moving the same amount to either the Gulf or the East Coast of the U.S. Telsa really needs another large LFP cell maker based in central or eastern N.America to support more TE production facilities. Perhaps that's the plan for the Montreal, QC Tesla facility. That location provides easy access to both the St. Lawrence Seaway/Mississippi River corridors, and Atlantic coast heavy shipping/logistics.

mmmm........... that only represents one railroad train per week, so is perfectly doable by railfreight trans-USA/Can

Either the completed product gets shipped a sub-optimal distance if all made in Lathrop, or (better) a key component gets dense-shipped by sea/rail to the (many) optimally sited factories.

Anyway what on earth has happened to the existing NY plant. Can't they take in any extra volume ?

But yes, we need more factories, and more factory announcements.

 

[mongo]

So if Tesla adds some "helper springs" to a 5-seater Model Y to raise its GVWR to >6K lbs, then it gets the $7,500?

I'm beginning to see why E thinks all subsidies should be turfed...

If they add 3rd row it's an SUV.
If they remove 2nd row (or lock it in the down position?), it's a van.
If they alter the suspension to do the following, it's also an SUV

(b) An automobile capable of off-highway operation, as indicated by the fact that it:
(1)(i) Has 4-wheel drive; or

(ii) Is rated at more than 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight; and
(2) Has at least four of the following characteristics calculated when the automobile is at curb weight, on a level surface, with the front wheels parallel to the automobile's longitudinal centerline, and the tires inflated to the manufacturer's recommended pressure—

(i) Approach angle of not less than 28 degrees.
(ii) Breakover angle of not less than 14 degrees.
(iii) Departure angle of not less than 20 degrees.
(iv) Running clearance of not less than 20 centimeters.
(v) Front and rear axle clearances of not less than 18 centimeters each.

So now we also need to know the definition of MSRP. Is that base MSRP before options?

Might Tesla sell long range MY for 55K, but you have to pay extra to unlock the longer range? They did something similar in Canada as I recall.

That, at least, is well defined: sum of MSRP items attached to vehicle when delivered to the dealer.

The MSRP for this purpose is the base retail price suggested by the manufacturer, plus the retail price suggested by the manufacturer for each accessory or item of optional equipment physically attached to the vehicle at the time of delivery to the dealer. It does not include destination charges or optional items added by the dealer, or taxes and fees.

 

[matejpi]

Today I am expecting retraction in SP down to 115 due to macros. I have several buy orders in pipeline which will execute accordingly...

 

[CorneliusXX]

If they add 3rd row it's an SUV.
If they remove 2nd row (or lock it in the down position?), it's a van.
If they alter the suspension to do the following, it's also an SUV



That, at least, is well defined: sum of MSRP items attached to vehicle when delivered to the dealer.

Presumably just putting air suspension in the Model Y that can lift the vehicle to the relevant angles/clearance levels would be the cheapest way to get it to conform with the criteria. Tesla already uses the technology so presumably it should be fairly easy to adapt. It also creates a better product but may require more maintenance.

On a side note, it's nice to see the US Government using the metric system. Perhaps there's hope for you yet.

 

[bkp_duke]

If they alter the suspension to do the following, it's also an SUV

Aren't all LR and P Model Y's AWD? Would that alone instantly qualify them per that guidance?

 

[cusetownusa]

Yup, Treasury pulled a fast one on Tesla by not using the existing EPA classifications for SUVs, as required by the IRA law itself. I expected this hostile Administration would pull some IRA monkey business by Dec 31. Now we see it happening.

Here's the funniest part: A 2-row VW ID.4 needs to be priced below $80K to qualify for the IRA subsidy for SUVs, while a 2-row Model Y doesn't qualify unless it's MSRP is below $55K. Why? Because its not an SUV (but an ID.4 is).

So Treasury is pretending that a 5-seater Model Y LR should be classified the same as a Model 3SR+ for purposes of the IRA subsidy. Sounds legit. /s

TSLA POPS and IRS SCREWS Tesla with EV tax credit | Oracle Investments

The joke will be on them if tesla sells a Model Y AWD LR for under $55k to get the subsidy. They would break all kinds of sales records in the US and would crush ID4 (and other comparable EVs) sales. Especially if they offer a 2WD standard range for even less.

Someone more knowledgeable then me could figure out the profit margins at this price but I would assume it would still be about 30% (more when including and money they get for the 4680 batteries they use), which would be huge when selling at these potentially massive volumes.

But ultimately I agree, the IRA subsidy is needlessly complex and arbitrary. Unfortunately this his how the government likes to work.

 

[mongo]

Aren't all LR and P Model Y's AWD? Would that alone instantly qualify them per that guidance?

AWD only checks off item (1). It also needs 4 of the 5 criteria from item (2).

 

[bkp_duke]

AWD only checks off item (1). It also needs 4 of the 5 criteria from item (2).

I believe everything in (2) could be met with adaptive air suspension.

Wouldn't that be quite the riot? A new variant. We already know that the Y has the space pre-allocated for the components needed for air suspension (per Sandy's teardown).

 

[Max Plaid]

So if Tesla adds some "helper springs" to a 5-seater Model Y to raise its GVWR to >6K lbs, then it gets the $7,500?

I'm beginning to see why E thinks all subsidies should be turfed...

Is it just me that finds a subsidy being applied because car A is heavier than car B? Should be the opposite, efficiency should be rewarded, base it on form factor/passenger/load capacity, but weight??

 

[Usain]

That, at least, is well defined: sum of MSRP items attached to vehicle when delivered to the dealer.

The MSRP for this purpose is the base retail price suggested by the manufacturer, plus the retail price suggested by the manufacturer for each accessory or item of optional equipment physically attached to the vehicle at the time of delivery to the dealer. It does not include destination charges or optional items added by the dealer, or taxes and fees.

That MSRP definition still seems to add a lot of wiggle-room in Tesla's case. Since Tesla is both manufacturer and dealer, Tesla can set MSRP at any price and then turn around and do a markup as the dealer.

And that definition seems to allow the software-locked range gambit as well. If that is the true legal definition of MSRP then Tesla has many options.

 

[JupiterMan]

Is it just me that finds a subsidy being applied because car A is heavier than car B? Should be the opposite, efficiency should be rewarded, base it on form factor/passenger/load capacity, but weight??

the Inflation Reduction Act becomes the Gross Weight Increase Act.

 

[NicoV]

Lots of happy people on the Benelux FB pages, happy that they can still get their Tesla today or tomorrow, in part because of the free 10000km supercharging. Adding all kinds of rumours and FB messages together, there must be many hundreds of cars still delivered today or tomorrow in Belgium and The Netherlands. All coming from the last two ships that arrived a couple of days ago in Zeebrugge.

 

[mongo]

I believe everything in (2) could be met with adaptive air suspension.

Wouldn't that be quite the riot? A new variant. We already know that the Y has the space pre-allocated for the components needed for air suspension (per Sandy's teardown).

Based on super rough calculations, it would need to more than double its ground clearance to achieve the required angles.

 

[UncaNed]

Today I am expecting retraction in SP down to 115 due to macros. I have several buy orders in pipeline which will execute accordingly...

Doesn't seem to be... Perhaps people are buying in anticipation of a good P/L report??

 

[unk45]

Yes. They reduced prices and added free supercharging in the US to clear out inventory because demand didn't meet supply. Whether this was due to impending tax credit, macro, elon behavior, or other factors, it still reflects demand. It may not matter in the long term, but have to call a spade a spade. They also added incentives in China (excluding those added by Chinese govt). Supply and demand might be back in line after reducing the prices, but they didn't reduce prices for nothing.

Several people have posted facts that clarify these misconceptions. In short, avoiding repetitive posts:
1) parts costs, notably semiconductors, have been reducing,
2) shipping costs have been rapidly declining (this has a contra
-indication in port delays),
3) Production efficiencies from megacastings, structural packs, price reductions from CATL and other suppliers, with cheaper chemistries on roughly half the production volume,
4) ramping efficiencies from rampup of Grüneheide, Austin, Lathrup and suppliers,
5) Improving logistics efficiencies in deliveries.
Those topics just begin to outline reasons for lower prices, further;
Elon and Zach have repeatedly explained the the price rises since ~2021 have been to adjust for increasing component costs. As those have been decreasing recently price reductions follow. Do you not remember that?

All of those felicitous events have been happening, so choosing the timing of events to optimize benefits is absolutely a wise decision and,

It has been only in the last couple of months that all the efficiencies have been resulting in significant production increases,

Finally ‘everyone‘ seems to conveniently forget these:
1. ‘Free Supercharging’ is gone as a standard feature. Since 2018 it has been used as specific promotion incentives. That effectively reduces cost of sales by a large, albeit not precisely defined, and generates income rather than expense,
2. Premium Connectivity is now an option thus converting expense to revenue. Once people have passed the initial free period paid use has high adoption,
3.:Supercharger revenue from non-Tesla use generates more income, lessening negative P&L effect of Supercharger production and deployment.

There are more…and these ignore timing effects of various locations worldwide having tax and incentive changes taking effect in January. The US ones are obviously the most dramatic and consequential, but changes in major markets in Europe, China and elsewhere are also happening.

Put all those together and short term inventory reduction is a GOOD idea.

Lastly, the widely anticipated Model 3 and Model Y production modifications will reduce the cost of both.

Demand allegations are largely FUD.

 

[elasalle]

If CT was already in production, IRA rule would say truck can’t be triangular

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is it just me that finds a subsidy being applied because car A is heavier than car B? Should be the opposite, efficiency should be rewarded, base it on form factor/passenger/load capacity, but weight??

Haha, yeah, one would think. But remember, 'murica!

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[SageBrush]

This was already shown back on the last round of Troy bashing where to finally put it to rest he actually linked to the audio of them each promising 50% YoY growth this year specifically every single quarterly earnings call in 2022 so far.

Even if true, why are you harping about guidance ? Why haven't you fallen on your favorite petard when Tesla exceeded guidance ?

YMMV; I only expect guidance to be ballpark (how can it be otherwise ?) and in retrospect for deviations lower than guided to be explainable by then future events that would not have been included by any reasonable person because they were unknowable. Covid certainly falls in this category.

 

[NicoV]

What prevents Tesla to re-introduce the Lemur for IRA purposes? For both Model 3 and Y?
Nothing I guess.