Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[navguy12]

Uh these aren’t the right numbers for Tesla? The chart is 2021 and they show about 160,000 fewer cars than Tesla made???

And somewhere it also says how VW is looking to leap ahead by 2024…

 

[petit_bateau]

Software disable the range and one of the motor, then drop the price down to 55k. I would disable the range down to 150 miles just so the incentive to restore the car to it's former glory via DLC is high. They did this in Canada with the SR+.

There has not yet been any public domain info that Tesla has ever unlocked the extra range for the Canada SR+ vehicles.

It seems likely that there was a behind-the-scenes deal between Canadian government and Tesla to never sell an unlock.

One should expect a similar situation in the event of a software-lock for IRA-compliancy in USA.

I will be very happy if you can find evidence to the contrary in Canada.

 

[Optimeer]

I’m surprised M3LR orders aren’t open yet. Still says available is 2023.

From a margin perspective, it could make sense for Tesla to delay the opening of the M3 LR order book for a moment.

Other configurations, which can be built at the Model 3/Y production line in Fremont, probably have the same or better margins. For example the Model Y LR 7 seater is sold for approx. 10’000 USD more, at production cost which are only slightly higher. The M3 RWD saves the front motor and uses smaller and less expensive batteries, so the margin could be similar to the M3 LR per car, but are probably higher for the M3 RWD percentaged.

 

[Singuy]

There has not yet been any public domain info that Tesla has ever unlocked the extra range for the Canada SR+ vehicles.

It seems likely that there was a behind-the-scenes deal between Canadian government and Tesla to never sell an unlock.

One should expect a similar situation in the event of a software-lock for IRA-compliany in USA.

I will be very happy if you can find evidence to the contrary in Canada.

Oh haha that's right. The car had a 49 miles of range with a depressed price not for that version to qualify but for the entire stack of Tesla's to qualify. Their qualifications were kind of weird, in which it's based on the lowest MSRP trim for the entire stack to qualify.

 

[Singuy]

The stock is going to go lower than you can possibly imagine. Key support all broken.

Yup, I have a price target of -69 dollars a share. I already have money saved up so then I can pay others to buy my shares. Enron going to zero? Tesla is like "hold my beer".

 

[navguy12]

Tesla’s “Model Years” are a bookeeping thing at best. A 2021 Model Y made in December has more in common with a 2022 “Model Year” Model Y made in January than it’s 2021 counterpart.

More important.

When does Tesla’s “2021 Model Year“ production start and end?

When does GM’s “2021 Model Year“ production start and end?

etc etc.

Essentially we are comparing 20 different time periods with each other.

IIRC, the law in the states says (something like) a vehicle must be available to be sold on 01 Jan 20XX and be available for 12 months to be tagged 20XX.

For example, if a new car is introduced for sale on 02 Jan 2023 (say a new Chevy whatever), it could be called a 2024 model…as long as that model will be available for sale on 01 Jan 2024.

Edit: finger problems typing 2024.

 

[Stormy24]

The stock is going to go lower than you can possibly imagine. Key support all broken.

There was support?

 

[navguy12]

Software disable the range and one of the motor, then drop the price down to 55k. I would disable the range down to 150 miles just so the incentive to restore the car to it's former glory via DLC is high. They did this in Canada with the SR+.

The unit that was available in Canada with ridiculous short range was specifically setup to never be software upgraded to a longer range.

Even Tesla begged people to NOT buy it.

AFAIK, nobody in Canada actually ordered that stripped down version of the TM3; it was simply a way to get around the anti Tesla portion of the legislation at the time.

Edit: I see @petit_bateau beat me to the punch.

 

[Unpilot]

The stock is going to go lower than you can possibly imagine. Key support all broken.

What if I can imagine -infinity and beyond?

 

[MP3Mike]

AFAIK, nobody in Canada actually ordered that stripped down version of the TM3; it was simply a way to get around the anti Tesla portion of the legislation at the time.

People did buy them. Some then complained here on TMC that they couldn't unlock the range.

 

[navguy12]

People did buy them. Some then complained here on TMC that they couldn't unlock the range.

Interesting.

I do remember Tesla being very verbose about “don’t buy it, it won’t be software unlock-able”.

 

[insaneoctane]

EV subsidies in China also expired with the new year. Without the new promotion, the purchase price would have increased for the Chinese market.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609256228798046211

Isn't this evidence that Tesla was essentially keeping the entire subsidy for themselves via markup? Now that it's gone, they dropped the price back down.

 

[cusetownusa]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609648056622022657

 

[mongo]

IIRC, the law in the states says (something like) a vehicle must be available to be sold on 01 Jan 20XX and be available for 12 months to be tagged 20XX.

For example, if a new car is introduced for sale on 02 Jan 2023 (say a new Chevy whatever), it could be called a 2024 model…as long as that model will be available for sale on 01 Jan 2024.

Edit: finger problems typing 2024.

85.2302 Definition of model year.

Model year means the manufacturer's annual production period (as determined under § 85.2304) which includes January 1 of such calendar year, provided, that if the manufacturer has no annual production period, the term “model year” shall mean the calendar year.

§ 85.2304 Definition of production period.
(a) The “annual production period” for all models within an engine family of light-duty motor vehicles, heavy-duty motor vehicles and engines, and on-highway motorcycles begins either: when any vehicle or engine within the engine family is first produced; or on January 2 of the calendar year preceding the year for which the model year is designated, whichever date is later. The annual production period ends either: When the last such vehicle or engine is produced; or on December 31 of the calendar year for which the model year is named, whichever date is sooner.
(b) The date when a vehicle or engine is first produced is the “Job 1 date,” which is defined as that calendar date on which a manufacturer completes all manufacturing and assembling processes necessary to produce the first saleable unit of the designated model which is in all material respects the same as the vehicle or engine described in the manufacturer's application for certification. The “Job 1 date” may be a date earlier in time than the date on which the certificate of conformity is issued.

Old (depreciated) version
565.3
(j) Model Year means the year used to designate a discrete vehicle model, irrespective of the calendar year in which the vehicle was actually produced, provided that the production period does not exceed 24 months [later qualified to 2 calendar years].

 

[SOULPEDL]

I do disagree beacuse the vehicle definitions existed way before IRA was a thing (last update 2009).

Now, that is not to ignore that the Secretary of Treasury could use criteria other than 600.092 & 523.5.

However, they are currently using the most codified and defined set of requirements. Versus: The EPA’s Vehicle-Size Classes Make No Sense—Or Do They?

As to the difference between Tesla & the other $80k limit cars. As near as I can tell, Audi, Ford, and VW have sufficient ground clearance to satisfy two off-highway criteria, this also results in breakover and departure angles than satisfy two more. Combined with AWD, that makes them a light truck/ SUV.

The Model Y does not have the required ground clearance and less than half the departure angle needed. Therefore, it only qualifies as an SUV when it has three rows of seats. (Would be a van if it had only one).49 CFR § 523.5 - Non-passenger automobile.

I think Elon's point is that the criteria for an SUV "is messed up." That's the house of mirrors but may have been required to get the votes, who knows. I'm grateful something was passed to helped fuel the EV industry, but that whole Hybrid favoritism was also part of the backroom negotiations no doubt.

 

[thesmokingman]

Do they not want an opened SUC network or what?

 

[Singuy]

Must watch. He said unfortunately Tesla will not hit their target in Shanghai this year. His concern spawns from brand damage due to all the brake PR disaster, strong competition, and that Tesla's Model 3/Y needs a refresh.

As for FSD, the government is preventing it being activated for ALL cars. Currently they have only allowed one small area in certain big cities to be open up, and Tesla thinks it'll go China wide in a year.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So seeing some mention about ground clearance is what some of the EV’s/hybrids are getting the 80k credit for. Apparently the Y doesn’t have the ground clearance…what’s the options for Tesla to just raise the Y?

 

[Singuy]

So seeing some mention about ground clearance is what some of the EV’s/hybrids are getting the 80k credit for. Apparently the Y doesn’t have the ground clearance…what’s the options for Tesla to just raise the Y?

So the 7 seater has the ground clearance?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So the 7 seater has the ground clearance?

Trying to make some sort of sense of this but from what I’m seeing, the vehicle either needs to have a 3rd row, a certain ground clearance, or one other thing that I can’t remember. If it has one of those 3 things, it qualifies as SUV for the credit in the eyes of the IRS.

It’s beyond stupid but