Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TSLA Siempre]

Dan Ives is probably doing Kumbaya as everything he has been saying about brand damage suddenly seems validated.

To be fair to Elon he tried to warn us of demand softness multiple times during the quarter. But damn did he really have to sell the additional stock in the second week of December fully knowing deliveries were trending this low. Now it almost seems like the EOQ additional incentives were meant to bail out Elon. The sentiment on this forum seems to be one of shock and the bears will make sure they do maximum damage to the stock given this sentiment. Enjoy the ride and save some dry powder

Interesting additional tidbit about investor day in March. If you thought institutions were worried about Tesla and the impact of the bird you don't have to look too far.

Yeah. Announcing this investor day along with these results seems to be an acknowledgement that they messed up.

 

[lazybot]

But they already had 20k extra production over deliveries in Q3. With another 30k extra in Q4- leaving 50k undelivered cars H2 of the year.

And don't worry- Q is already all over the idea of Tesla hiding a ton of unsold cars

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609961396388724738

Martin Viecha provided some explanation for the increase in difference between production and deliveries. It makes sense that increasing volume of deliveries would lead to increase in transit

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609959752062177288

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It's clear that Tesla can't sell every car they can make at the current prices. Hopefully IRA helps a lot with that. I expect to see further price reductions and incentives in near future. China is already having incentives for Q1.

 

[SOULPEDL]

They deliver most of their cars at the end of the quarter and in the last two weeks there was a massive snow storm in most of the US and half of China got covid.

This bad weather was planned in advance, just for Tesla. /s
If this were possible, the debate would consume the next 10 pages.

 

[chrsk]

Instant reaction on TL0 shares in Frantfurt:

View attachment 891411

112.80 Euro ~ 120.25 USD

Still, just about where we closed off last Friday…

Will be interesting to see tomorrow.

 

[Ogre]

They deliver most of their cars at the end of the quarter and in the last two weeks there was a massive snow storm in most of the US and half of China got covid.

Here’s the problem with that.

This is a reasonable excuse. Tesla has had genuinely good excuses for most quarters where they’ve ”Missed” estimates.

The environment Tesla is operating in is not getting better. Every quarter in 2022 has had some big nasty negative externality. This is the market Tesla is selling into and there is little sign it’s going to get better. Growth is going to get harder and harder as Tesla saturates the markets and the need to execute well in every region becomes increasingly important.

When Q1 numbers come in, there is a fair chance there is some other externality, recession according to Musk himself. It’s likely even more cars will be on boats and trains between places because there are more cars.

Hopefully energy is doing as well as it seems. I’m not buying into the super optimistic margins that have been floating about, but volume legitimately seems there.

 

[betstarship]

Been saying this since October. Elon lies on Twitter about all sorts of things, why can we trust him about Tesla now. Now would be a good time for him to start rebuilding trust.

Just taking a step back, you're relying on...what a person that leads 100,000's of people says, in 140 characters or less at a time, on a platform that allows you real-time access to him (and who chooses to give you real time access to what he wants to say in 140 characters or less in the public)...

...for your personal financial decisions?

 

[verystandard]

Yeah. Announcing this investor day along with these results seems to be an acknowledgement that they messed up.

This is still March 1st, quite a long ways to go...

It seems like the chances of any announcement between now and investor day is getting slim?

Good luck for anyone buying with Margin.

 

[cab]

Honestly, if Tesla would just SANDBAG their projections a bit instead of tossing out "50%" this would all be a lot more palatable. I know, I know...that wouldn't be the "Tesla way". I get it. Just stings of course especially since we were hearing the 50% bit as recently as the Q3 earnings call. Admittedly, production did get reasonably close...getting out diamond hand gloves now.

 

[elasalle]

Dec 31st … Happy New Year
Jan 2nd
Staying +ve
Below expectations but 40%YoY is great
Earnings estimate is 1.231 for Q4, hope energy picks up the slack…

Q3 earnings was 1.05 with 343K deliveries…

++so now need to wait patiently for @The AccountantQ4 numbers

+Q1 will have Thailand, Turkey ? Deliveries …

 

[Cherry Wine]

Instant reaction on TL0 shares in Frantfurt:

View attachment 891411

112.80 Euro ~ 120.25 USD

Frankly I think a lot of this has been priced in already.

EDIT: As vocally frustrated as I’ve been over the Twitter thing, I think it’s naive to think that our December performance wasn’t primarily about serious short term demand concerns.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Just taking a step back, you're relying on...what a person that leads 100,000's people says, in 140 characters or less, on a platform that allows you real-time access to him (who chooses to give you real time access to what he wants to say in 140 characters or less to the world)...

...for your personal financial decisions?

Words can be powerful.

 

[betstarship]

Words can be powerful.

Totally! Just...maybe in a long form speech?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Dan Ives has an interesting interpretation. I'm not that optimistic, but I know my emotion right now is a little tweaked.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609964328261935104

 

[StealthP3D]

"Runnin Down a Dream" is personal with me. Guitarist Mike Campbell of the Heartbreakers pointed me out in the crowd while singing this song recently at the Who concert in Phx. I'm still taken... how did he know?

How do you know he wasn't just pointing at your outfit:

 

[Paracelsus]

Hopefully we will hear more regarding orders cancelled from Q4 - those customers that thought they would be getting a credit for their Tesla EV, etc., and those that delayed their delivery until after the end of the year for IRA reasons. This quarter would have been a nightmare to navigate the logistics of with Covid, end of year storm deliveries, and confusing IRA incentives at the end as well. While we are arguing about the nuances of the IRA, the confusion of it could have had real impact on the Tesla Production and Delivery team in Q4.

 

[Moon Buggy]

Been saying this since October. Elon lies on Twitter about all sorts of things, why can we trust him about Tesla now? Now would be a good time for him to start rebuilding trust.

This is some of the problem for me. Tesla China has been hiding behind technicalities. Elon has been loose with the truth on all sorts of things on Twitter, while selling off shares in front of a bad deliveries report. Of course, he's still going to pump the stock. But to what degree can we trust him?

I'm not selling any shares, but I'm probably done nibbling at new shares for now. We're kind of hoping that things like software and energy are going to pull earnings forward right now. Because as far as delivering the current product line, right now I don't see it. Margins are going to be down. Increasing 2023 deliveries even 20% right now would probably be a win. Until the Cybertruck goes into mass production, this is what we have. IMO, they really need to double down on moving new product lines forward.

 

[chrsk]

It's clear that Tesla can't sell every car they can make at the current prices. Hopefully IRA helps a lot with that. I expect to see further price reductions and incentives in near future. China is already having incentives for Q1.

How do you then explain the wait times in different markets?

A friend of mine had to take several calls and fly to the import harbour to pick up his Model 3 30.12.

And, if they had an serious issue with the demand I guess they would have fast tracked the Model 2?

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Totally! Just...maybe in a long form speech?

Doesn’t matter. Long form or short form. What the ceo communicates is hugely important.

 

[vikings123]

It's clear that Tesla can't sell every car they can make at the current prices. Hopefully IRA helps a lot with that. I expect to see further price reductions and incentives in near future. China is already having incentives for Q1.

It looks like they are trying to appease institutions so maybe the stock hopefully does not go anywhere until we get to see the impact of margins in the earnings report. Elon was clearly distracted and he can say all he wants but his comments about Epic Q4 and then the sudden U-turn blaming everything on macro is just nutty.

It would be nice if Elon would show his support by buying even 1B of stock, you know it can't be a bad deal if he thinks Tesla will 10X in 5-10 years. And enough with the pumping of the long term fundamentals please.