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I'd say no.

'The world of organized crime' will do their best to at least trigger $100. Can be even worse.

Indeed, as I told you all last month, there's still a large swack of shortzes who want their money back from the 5:1 Split announcement on Aug 11, 2020. They really, REALLY, want to fill that teensy little gap created on the morning of Aug 12th (it's their religion).

sc.TSLA.50-DayChart.2020-08-12.09-30.png


And shortzes have all week to do it now. This is an organized sell-off this a.m. on heavy volume. Likely some big tickets moving to the rail to sit this one out.

Selling gets stupid crazy, a couple (unimaginable) things become possible:
  1. Elon executes all 302 M of his 2018 CEO award stock options at the excercise price (paying no Federal income tax to excercise, only the basis amnt to Tesla), and
  2. if sugar gets el-Gordo type stupid, Elon could buy enough shares to take a 50% control of the company (with his existing insider partners like Larry)
Sound nutty? Well then, call me squirrel. :p
 
20 more at $107.

Really wish I had more to deploy right now. Touching the emergency fund looks tempting, but pretty sure that could be a divorce-inducing event (which is incredibly problematic as the wife is a divorce attorney).

Trying to figure out if I regret buying my MY outright in November, vs. financing and dumping more into stock... Nah.. it's too much fun to drive and own without worrying about payments! :)

Hmmm.. then again, anyone want to buy a well loved, gently used 6 week old Y for about $75k?? :p

Off to sell some of my old motorcycle gear to try to fund a few more shares...
 
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Lol! How long is a piece of string? Maybe, for today, or maybe for all time. Or we might be down at $60 in 3 months...
Precisely, One Foot.
FYI, How Long is a Chinaman. ;)

Anyway... no one in particular, but this ongoing $7,500 credit is a beaten horse here. I'm guessing the Mods feel sorry for us and allowing it for a while longer. It's that rehashing of the same arguments over and over and pure speculation - that's my job! I am looking forward to clarity from Tesla soon (that was a helpful post!). Until then, I think I need to work in the real world.

FYI, it's 2023 already!

Cheers!
 
Well, still falling.. Don't want to know the number of stop-loss that gets triggered if we get below 100😑
Dang it, I was done buying. No more cash, sold enough other stuff, no more couches.
Now I am going to have to reconsider that choice AGAIN.
This does feel a bit like Groundhog Day. That story did come out well in the end though. Hoping it does for me.
 
In actual news, Tesla continues to execute and plan for the future. Locking up Lithium supplies for future growth.


The contract is very interesting, as it is basically billed on spot pricing, but a guaranteed lock up for volume.

"According to the terms, SC6 pricing will be set by a formula based on average market prices for lithium hydroxide monohydrate at the time of each shipment to Tesla during the agreement."
Sugar! - Bill Gates can't short lithium hydroxide monohydrate can he?
 
20 more at $107.

Really wish I had more to deploy right now. Touching the emergency fund looks tempting, but pretty sure that could be a divorce-inducing event (which is incredibly problematic as the wife is a divorce attorney).

Trying to figure out if I regret buying my MY outright in November, vs. financing and dumping more into stock... Nah.. it's too much fun to drive and own without worrying about payments! Nah, it's too much fun to have it and not worry about a payment... :)

Hmmm.. then again, anyone want to buy a well loved, gently used 6 week old Y for about $75k?? :p

Off to sell some of my old motorcycle gear to try to fund a few more shares...
Good luck, but PLEASE resist the emergency funds!
 
Clearance and suspension adjustments, i.e. redesign, seem a lot more complex. Seats and belts are already removable with some work if one is so motivated. They were bolted into place and can be unbolted.
It’s far more interesting to think of in terms of adding a new production/ trim to the lineup than just being a compliance change. The idea of a Tesla that is good at off roading would be very appealing on it’s own merit. Toyota have carved out a pretty good sized market of SUVs that are good at going off-road. It’s what the vehicle class was originally created for after all.

Adjusting the suspension makes a significantly different vehicle which would help drive demand in other ways.

Similarly, having 7 seats appeals to a different market.
 
Elon executes all 302 M of his 2018 CEO award stock options at the excercise price (paying no Federal income tax to excercise, only the basis amnt to Tesla), and
Sorry to shout, but...
SQUIRREL!!

...that makes zero sense (and 0 cents).

First off, his exercise price is $350.02 pre both splits which is $23.34 in current pricing. (You may be thinking of only the 3:1)
Secondly, exercising at the basis cost is no different from just buying the shares, he would net nothing from the CEO Plan.
Thirdly, he would need to come up with 304M*23.34 =$7 Billion to make that purchase. At that stock price, his current holdings would be worth less than $10 billion.
Fourthly, the point of CEO execution timing isn't to minimize taxes, it's to maximized net return.
 
This is gut feel, but taken all the numbers into account, I don't think we are going to see under $100.

We have bounced off the previous minimum today. And really the whole panic of the past 3 months is just that, panic. We are slightly short of numbers and demand is less than it was 12m ago, but this is nothing we havent seen before. I remember when there was lots of Model 3 inventory back on 2020 despite much lower production.

Yes, we will go lower than $100 if earnings per share is less than $1 for Q4. But I am expecting record profits by a long way, and 2m vehicles delivered in 2023. All good
 
My headline would be "goldman cuts price target from 261 to 205 after beating their forecast estimate of 1.05M units for 2022."

Everyone keeps punishing Tesla for failing to meet aggressive guidance everyone felt was BS to begin with.

 
Sorry to shout, but...
SQUIRREL!!

...that makes zero sense (and 0 cents).

Fourthly, the point of CEO execution timing isn't to minimize taxes, it's to maximized net return.

Problem is, you still haven't puzzled out the S&P 500 rebalancing volume puzzle. Social sciences aren't about theory, they're about making real-world predictions for 'black-box' systems. It uncovering the motivated behavior hidden behind all the rules and red tape, the smoke and the mirrors.

I'll give you a hint (and perhaps some insight) into what motivates Musk in this. He does not CARE about maximizing his net return, he cares about JUSTICE. He wlll spend $11 to save $10 in taxes.

And he will consider it his finest moment. He WANTS this fight. And he'd consider it sweet revenge to take it all back from the pirates. He wants to be at the helm of his ship, it's in his nature. I pity the pol who crosses him, or motivates him.