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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Ridiculous that Tesla is showing price after potential gas savings but not the tax credit. This is from a 7-seat Model Y.
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The price action reminds me early 2019 when Tesla missed deliveries due to bad logistics to Europe. Everyone and their mom declared that no one will ever buy an EV and Tesla will go bankrupt any moment. During this madness we had AI day - Listening to sheer ambition of the Tesla team and genius behind the autopilot architecture was Jaw dropping. Everyone thought it was the one last stock pump by Elon but it was obvious for me that this company is going to change the world forever.

Stock bottomed after a couple months at $180 - pre pre split. Rest is history.

We are now trading at 20ish PE and nearly 10X from that bottom in approx 3.5 years.

We should 10X again in next 3 to 4 years.
There were some legitimate concerns in 2019. Tesla had only 2B in cash after earnings in which they just lost 1.6B. Elon was closing Model S/X shifts and stores. The miss on production was not a few percentage points but like 35%. Then Elon goes and tell the team they have enough money to survive till October if nothing is changed. EV tax credit was just cut in half so that was another headwind.

Today I am pretty convinced it's a supply chain issue with Gigashanghai that caused the miss. Covid shutdown was the primary culprit, and then covid spread being the secondary culprit. Tesla's cash position is plenty healthy with more cash coming in everyday. The US government will be providing Tesla some good incentives and the COGS keep decreasing as Berlin/Texas ramp. Also we actually have some meaningful FSD software money today.
 
It’s a lose-lose situation.

Musk is not on the call: “See Musk has truly abandoned Tesla“
Musk is on the call: “Musk blathering about droids when Tesla Auto is failing!“

Headlines write themselves.

I almost guarantee Musk will be on this call.
And Musk will make sure you get every headwind concern known to man this call. There's a good chance you'll think Tesla is heading into bankruptcy after the call but then realize Musk is just being Musk, preparing for Armageddon.
 
And Musk will make sure you get every headwind concern known to man this call. There's a good chance you'll think Tesla is heading into bankruptcy after the call but then realize Musk is just being Musk, preparing for Armageddon.
Steve Jobs was quite paranoid about cash and financial stability also. Thats a big part of why Apple’s cash hoard grew to over $100b before they started buybacks or options. Owning a once company that is on the edge of bankruptcy changes your perspective.
 
Something is brewing. Seems like they are anti-selling right now perhaps preparing for some kind of change.
I’m sure you’re right. It’s the 3rd of January. Maybe 6 days after the stupid IRS guidelines were launched?

I‘m guessing Tesla management is still working out exactly the best strategy to deal with this. It’s very easy to say “They should just…”, but Tesla actually needs to reallocate production to implement many of these solutions. There is no point rushing out some half-baked solution only to realize they don’t have the production capacity for that particular model to execute on it.
 
Add removable weights and hope for SUV classification.

#2 would be best PR stunt;)

Can anyone point me the rationale for a higher curb or GVWR allowing a 5 seat Y to be classified as a 'light truck'? I see nothing in the legislation that would bypass 523.5 (b)(2) 49 CFR § 523.5 - Non-passenger automobile.

Do a software limited Model Y at 55K to 70 miles total, with a software unlock at 10K, also just add the fuggin seats if we have to

That would seem to run afoul of Treasury guidance due to the additional capacity being "physically attached at the time of delivery to the dealer".
Q3. How will I know what the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) is for a vehicle? (added December 29, 2022)
A3. The MSRP will be on the vehicle information label attached to each vehicle on a dealer’s premises. The MSRP for this purpose is the base retail price suggested by the manufacturer, plus the retail price suggested by the manufacturer for each accessory or item of optional equipment physically attached to the vehicle at the time of delivery to the dealer. It does not include destination charges or optional items added by the dealer, or taxes and fees.
 
Elon hasn't decided how he wants to handle Model Y wrt the IRA. It seems that the choices are:
1. Lower prices under 55K.
2. Add removable weights and hope for SUV classification.
3. Lobby the Treasury Dept. to come to their senses.

As long as Model 3 orders are strong, there is no reason to advertise the $7500 tax credit and invite even more speculation about what he will do for Model Y. No need to show your cards before they all are dealt.
Yeah, #2. They could be polished lead in the shape of the Tesla logo. After the owner unbolts them, they could be hung in the garage (or put up for sale on eBay).
 
I saw a couple references to the horrific crash where a Tesla plunged down a cliff and all occupants survived. There was speculation about whether FSD was enabled or not. Turns out the driver did it intentionally and has been arrested for attempted murder.

I really hope he wasn’t some investor who lost some…
 
And Musk will make sure you get every headwind concern known to man this call. There's a good chance you'll think Tesla is heading into bankruptcy after the call but then realize Musk is just being Musk, preparing for Armageddon.
For be fair, Twitter and the share price has made some former Tesla bulls more bearish than Elon. :)
 
Musk is on the call: “Musk blathering about droids when Tesla Auto is failing!“
The problem with Musk talking about Droids / Robotaxi is that nobody, including Tesla has the tech. It is not even clear if the technology can be developed and if so, when. Thats the kind of thing to talk about at AI day or even company annual meeting. ER call is more definitive and shorter/medium term.
 
It’s a lose-lose situation.

Musk is not on the call: “See Musk has truly abandoned Tesla“
Musk is on the call: “Musk blathering about droids when Tesla Auto is failing!“

Headlines write themselves.

I almost guarantee Musk will be on this call.
Yeah, you're probably right. Well, at least it should work itself out in the longer run, but I think anyone thinking about options right now is a bit nutty.
 
“We admire the range of American companies that have innovated, including Tesla, which did so much to make EVs possible in America,” Buttigieg said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

"Tesla is the largest producer of EVs in the country. They’ve played a remarkable role in propelling EV revolution."

"And then you have the newer companies, the Teslas, Rivians, and so on that had been set up for this the whole time, but are themselves going through the evolution that would be required for them to hit the next level in terms of scale."

Your point? All of those comments about Tesla made by Pete came after this administration had caved to the growing pressures of the public for this administration to acknowledge Tesla's leadership in the EV industry, and even Tesla's very existence. Recall that just the week before the oldest article you posted over 50,000 people had signed a petition to the White House to get Biden and his administration to acknowledge Tesla's leadership, and someone had even bought an ad in Times Square over the pettiness of it all. Americans were infuriated over the 'Mary Led and it mattered' campaign to try to rewrite history, and for having excluded Tesla from the White House EV Summit, not mentioning Tesla in interviews, side stepping Tesla questions and not evening mentioning Tesla or Elon when asked very directly about the company or the EV Summit. But its good you posted those articles proving Pete and the administration would later change course, as they are a great reminder that enough public pressure on any administration can bring results. Lets hope we see some similar results with the new petition to get the administration to reconsider Model Y criteria under the IRA.

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Elon Musk and Tesla fans ramp up pressure for recognition from Biden with ad and 50,000 petition signatures​

Avatar for Fred LambertFred Lambert | Feb 2 2022 - 3:16 pm PT

"Elon Musk and Tesla fans are ramping up the pressure to get recognition from President Biden, who has had a clear problem acknowledging that Tesla is leading the electrification of the auto industry in the United States. Almost 50,000 Tesla supporters have signed a petition, and someone has even bought an ad about it on Times Square."



Jan 28, 2022 at 12:56pm ET
228
By: Steven Loveday

"As you are likely aware, President Joe Biden has pledged his support for EVs. However, his support is largely reserved for unionized US automakers, rather than US automakers that have already proven successful with EVs.

Since President Biden has been in office, he has failed to ever mention Tesla or Elon Musk. In addition, he has ignored SpaceX. With that said, Biden can choose to do and say whatever he wants to say. He can dislike Tesla or Musk for whatever reasons, and that's just fine. However, his failure to so much as even acknowledge that Tesla exists is bothering a lot of people on both sides of the aisle, as well as Tesla fans and foes.
It was understood that if Biden's EV tax credit passed, it would give extra incentives to automakers that are unionized. While any people disagreed with that, the President stuck to it. People, including Musk, took notice and repeatedly called Biden out for the "union credit.""


And of course this "Umm, I'm not sure" gem just before the administration caved:

 
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As you are likely aware, President Joe Biden has pledged his support for EVs. However, his support is largely reserved for unionized US automakers, rather than US automakers that have already proven successful with EVs.
Ironically, not enough light is shed on this as legacies move EV manufacturing to Mexico. There is not a facepalm emoji big enough for this.