Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

It's hard not see that this Better Battery Bill nonsense is in direct response to the current IRA backfiring on Model Y due to Tesla price correction. Heck, I thought the bill was originally created to slow Tesla. Now I'm certain due to the timing here. They will effectively cause some to wait and see, adding to FUD. It doesn't need to pass (and won't IMO). But tie it to the debt limit mess? Hope not, a game of chicken that is.

Only people who didnt read the bill and couldnt get past Biden not patting Elon on the back with photo opps could think the bill was created to slow Tesla by giving Tesla tax credits back and $ for creating batteries in the USA.

 

[Gigapress]

Spending bills require only a majority vote because they are must-pass. Manchin's bill won't survive as a standalone, but he is probably putting it down as a marker for inclusion in the spending bill deal that Biden will eventually have to swallow.

Good point. I didn’t think of that.

 

[2daMoon]

I see it a little differently.

Demand for battery storage will be virtually unlimited for years to come, at least until a newer and more viable technology can displace it. And that takes time. The biggest challenge is merely accepting that the vision is correct, as evidenced by Panasonic's continued reluctance to increase production over the years.

Once that vision is not in doubt, a talented and determined team cannot help but to succeed, there will be missteps along the way, but proceeding with determination, awareness, and continually increasing amounts of talent, always willing to change course when necessary, success is a matter of when, not if. Even batteries made at a higher cost will be in demand and profitable, the margins will just be lower. I don't expect Tesla will be the ones with lower margins as their 4680 program is designed with long-term vision in mind.

This is why long-term investors in the best companies, operating in the fastest growing sectors, will have superior returns over time. Blue birds cannot change that. Black swans are exceedingly rare, that's why they are called "black swans". Yes, keep your eye out for the rare black swan, not in the sense of being worried about them, but treat them as potential surprise opportunities if you are able to identify one in time.

Worth emphasizing is the fact that the majority of people in the world have not even the faintest concept of the energy revolution to come and the impact it will have.

Those "in the know" are in a fortunate position to see more clearly this trajectory which lies before us. As if the future of mankind has been loaded into the Trebuchet and we're waiting patiently to see the results once the lever is pulled to release the kinetic energy of overdue change.

We wait, precariously balanced on the precipice of the inevitable, poised for what one day may be seen as a nearly effortless transition to a new economy of plenty which will reveal the preceding stagnation perpetrated upon mankind by those who prized the illusion of control over the betterment of all.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Only people who didnt read the bill and couldnt get past Biden not patting Elon on the back with photo opps could think the bill was created to slow Tesla by giving Tesla tax credits back and $ for creating batteries in the USA.

Ya, I didn't read the Bill, same reason I like short posts.

 

[avoigt]

Here is a good article summarizing how HF, MM and others manipulate stocks and we all know that Tesla has been heavily manipulated over the years and even today. I can't express how frustrating it is to read how easy it is for them to invest tsla stocks that don't exist to short them or to create an artificial amount of Tesla shorts. Its illegal and fraud and should be banned and prosecuted.

How wall street creates Counterfeit shares for AMC and GameStop

Stock manipulation and illegal naked shorting are two of Wall Street's dirty little secrets.

news.investorturf.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Seen. This is the figure I spotted, 4%:

View attachment 899460
Please double check my math.

I searched for how many barrels of oil is produced by Texas in a year. The figure for 2021 is 1,700,000,000 (one billion and 700 million):

View attachment 899461

Next, I Googled how much energy equivalent is in one barrel of oil, since the figure “4%” is what is stated as the electric portion of the total primary energy inputs for refining the product. The figure is one barrel of oil has the energy equivalent of 1,700 kWh:

View attachment 899462

4% of 1,700 kWh is 68 kWh, so 68 kWh of electricity goes into the refining of one barrel of oil.

I Googled how many US gallons of gasoline and diesel are produced from one barrel of oil. The total is about 32 gallons combined (not including other materials).

View attachment 899463

So, I will say that @JRP3 is pretty accurate in his figures. I get about two kWh of electricity used in the refining of one US gallon of gasoline/diesel.

But…

Texas refines 5,100,000 (five million and 100 thousand) barrels of oil as day:

View attachment 899475

Since 68 kWh of electricity is spent refining one barrel of oil, then to refine 5,100,000 barrels requires (68 x 5,100,000) 346,800,000 kWh of electricity.

Since I’m as thick as a two x four, I have to show my work reducing all these zeros:

346,800,000 kWh equals 346,800 mWh equals 346.8 gWh.

Texas uses 346.8 gWh of electricity to refine oil. Per day.

346.8 gWh multiplied by 365 days equals 126,582 gWh of electricity to refine oil every year.

126,582 gWh equals 126.6 tWh.

Back to the chart that shows how much electricity Texas uses:

View attachment 899479

Out of 435 tWh of electricity used by Texas, about 29% (126.6 tWh) is used to refine oil.

My brain hurts to the point I don’t want to figure how many TM3s could drive 20,000 miles with 126.6 tWh of electricity, but I figure its a huge number.

I say the intent of the eight year old YouTube video holds up and that, as Elon said, there would be plenty of electricity to power our EVs if we just stopped refining oil.

I think you can shortcut to your answer if you look up a Sankey diagram

Pull wherever you choose

IEA Sankey Diagram

or this for Canada

Sankey diagrams associated with fuel and electricity production and use in Canada

This visualization gives access to thousands of Sankey diagrams depicting the flows of energy or carbon, by province or nationally, associated with fuel and electricity production and use from 1990 to 2013.

www.cesarnet.ca

If you look at the whole world version for the IEA you'll see I have circled in red the "own use" element that is lost within a refinery. We don't really mind whether it is lost as electrical or thermal.

 

[Ogre]

Here is a good article summarizing how HF, MM and others manipulate stocks and we all know that Tesla has been heavily manipulated over the years and even today. I can't express how frustrating it is to read how easy it is for them to invest tsla stocks that don't exist to short them or to create an artificial amount of Tesla shorts. Its illegal and fraud and should be banned and prosecuted.

How wall street creates Counterfeit shares for AMC and GameStop

Stock manipulation and illegal naked shorting are two of Wall Street's dirty little secrets.

news.investorturf.com

Hard to imagine why an executive would want to remove their company from positive market forces like this. /s


But you don't see headlines talking about how Elon Musk was trying to get his business out of a rigged game.

 

[JRP3]

Is it really that reasonable of a solution? They provide versions with either a 5-20 or 6-20 outlet for ~$400. But where does someone get an EVSE that supports those outlets, and how much does that cost?

I didn't realize the cost was that high but a 5-20 outlet will also accept a standard 15 amp plug.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Worth emphasizing is the fact that the majority of people in the world have not even the faintest concept of the energy revolution to come and the impact it will have.

Those "in the know" are in a fortunate position to see more clearly this trajectory which lies before us. As if the future of mankind has been loaded into the Trebuchet and we're waiting patiently to see the results once the lever is pulled to release the kinetic energy of overdue change.

We wait, precariously balanced on the precipice of the inevitable, poised for what one day may be seen as a nearly effortless transition to a new economy of plenty which will reveal the preceding stagnation perpetrated upon mankind by those who prized the illusion of control over the betterment of all.

I'm tagging this poetry as a potential cause for any downward stock movement today.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I am preparing a powerpoint presentation for a startup which i expect to get full series A through E funding... The presentation will include but not limited to the following key words and pictures including electricity, batteries, cars, EVs, self driving software including all 1 and 0 simple addition calculations, semiconductors, AI and of course internet. Please get on board quickly so i can get this presentation valued and acquired...

Need someone to do computer-generated concept illustrations?

 

[Ogre]

A couple thoughts coming into the earnings call this afternoon from one of the great poets of modern times.

Don't set yourself up for disappointment.

Not saying this earnings call is going to be bad. But...

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

 

[unk45]

I see it a little differently.

Demand for battery storage will be virtually unlimited for years to come, at least until a newer and more viable technology can displace it. And that takes time. The biggest challenge is merely accepting that the vision is correct, as evidenced by Panasonic's continued reluctance to increase production over the years.

Once that vision is not in doubt, a talented and determined team cannot help but to succeed, there will be missteps along the way, but proceeding with determination, awareness, and continually increasing amounts of talent, always willing to change course when necessary, success is a matter of when, not if. Even batteries made at a higher cost will be in demand and profitable, the margins will just be lower. I don't expect Tesla will be the ones with lower margins as their 4680 program is designed with long-term vision in mind.

This is why long-term investors in the best companies, operating in the fastest growing sectors, will have superior returns over time. Blue birds cannot change that. Black swans are exceedingly rare, that's why they are called "black swans". Yes, keep your eye out for the rare black swan, not in the sense of being worried about them, but treat them as potential surprise opportunities if you are able to identify one in time.

I think you're very reasonable. My slightly more uncertain view is mostly because from(e.g. Xerox and Kodak) seeing seemingly well managed innovators missing their demise. Black swans could happen with some presently unanticipated technology. I do not suggest undue caution, but I do suggest constantly evaluating assumptions. Despite my HODL stance, I've seen too much to be certain there is no threat looming. Nothing in life is a sure thing, as they say, except death and taxes.

 

[Buckminster]

Great news regarding selling TSLA for TWTR:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618312847544684544

 

[ZeApelido]

Recommended guidelines for posting tonight:

1. If in doubt, don't post or put it in off topic galore
2. Add value - don't post SP or quotes from the presentation
3. Group your points together into bigger posts
4. Don't post until you have caught up and confirmed it hasn't already been posted
5. After posting, check to see if you were ninjaed (someone else posted the same thing before you) and delete your post if so

Links:

Call

Vlog with Farzad etc. Starts in 4 hours.
Tesla Investor Relations

James Stephenson expectations

Earnings Report Karen

 

[Ogre]

Great news regarding selling TSLA for TWTR:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618312847544684544

This has gotten ridiculous. Zero chance the timing on that bit of bogus "News" is coincidental.

 

[phantasms]

While my long term shares are totally in tact, I sold off my more recent dip buying shares today at $144 based on my macro outlook and my expectations on the tone Elon will set on this call. ::ducks::

 

[H Mak]

While my long term shares are totally in tact, I sold off my more recent dip buying shares today at $144 based on my macro outlook and my expectations on the tone Elon will set on this call. ::ducks::

View attachment 899722

30% gain in a month? Sounds like good business to me

 

[Captkerosene]

Seems like EM is teasing a Buy Back with his Bee Bee tweets? Today would be a good time to announce it.

and 69 others - formerly known as captkerosene. (Tired of people thinking I work in the oil industry ... not that that's bad!)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This has gotten ridiculous. Zero chance the timing on that bit of bogus "News" is coincidental.

Agree that timing seems kinda 'planned', but even if this had any truth to it, would Elon really respond with 'Yes'?

 

[MP3Mike]

This has gotten ridiculous. Zero chance the timing on that bit of bogus "News" is coincidental.

I'm not sure how selling additional shares of Twitter would have any negative impact on TSLA... So I'm not sure what gain the news would have tried to get...