Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

Possible buyback initiation or extra buffer for factories?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618364797552320513

Won't this force Moodys to make an upgrade...?

 

[petit_bateau]

Nope.
1.3*0.77 = flat so 23% ASP cut or 20% ASP cut and 25% growth.
Which is all ignoring the reality that cost of revenue does not increase at the same rate as production. Flat revenue on higher volume would still mean more gross and operating profit.

In the last 4 quarters automotive GM% has reduced from 33% to 26%, almost 2% down per quarter.

If it stabilises at 26% that is one thing, but if it carries on falling at a rate of 7% per year that is quite another thing.

We can take it as a given that Tesla will be working as hard as ever on the cost side of the equation. We also know from Musk's recent statements that they will adjust prices to keep the expanding production capacity full. So the next few years are very much a real world experiment in what the early mass market buyers think is a tolerable price.

 

[Dutchie]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618368995928969218

I don’t understand. Why do they need this with so much cash in the bank?

 

[SebastienBonny]

They’ll only use it if needed and I don’t think it is unwise to use a loan, even if you have the cash.

 

[Singuy]

In the last 4 quarters automotive GM% has reduced from 33% to 26%, almost 2% down per quarter.

If it stabilises at 26% that is one thing, but if it carries on falling at a rate of 7% per year that is quite another thing.

We can take it as a given that Tesla will be working as hard as ever on the cost side of the equation. We also know from Musk's recent statements that they will adjust prices to keep the expanding production capacity full. So the next few years are very much a real world experiment in what the early mass market buyers think is a tolerable price.

We all did expect Berlin/Texas/4680s to be a drag on margins. Add in a little bit of FX and even rising ASP couldn't even prevent margins from going down.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I took the opportunity to see the photos of Tesla 2 years ago:

Q4 2020:

View attachment 899802
View attachment 899803

Now:

View attachment 899804
View attachment 899806
View attachment 899808

I hope Tesla tells us what the problem was with 4680, or at least some clarity on the issue. Maybe it wasn't a breakthrough, just incremental improvements and yields, relaxed specs, who knows.

Did they release new battery media? Those blue strips on the batteries - gotta be for vision align, eh?

(PS, I look at all the pictures, charts, etc.)

 

[Mengy]

I don’t understand. Why do they need this with so much cash in the bank?

Good question. They must have a good reason though?

 

[Singuy]

I don’t understand. Why do they need this with so much cash in the bank?

Precautionary incase of liquidity crunch from the broader market. Tesla paid off their debts, now they have opened up an equity line of credit. It's the smart thing to do vs doing share offering diluting shareholders IF liquidity crunch happens, some major bank collapses or WW3 happens.

 

[Skryll]

Only negative news I've caught so far is the excess of production over deliveries. Excess vehicles for Q4 were 35k, up sharply from 22k in Q3. This is a clear sign of waning demand at the old price levels, IMO.

Unwinding of the wave

 

[Hiline]

I don’t understand. Why do they need this with so much cash in the bank?

They also have a lot of current liabilities that they need the cash to cover.

 

[Xepa777]

LOL. Troy is the most accurate

1.18 vs actual of 1.19.

He gets constantly *sugar* on here yet he's out-forecasted many TMC heroes on deliveries and EPS and has been doing this for years. Make fun of his "rudimentary" methods (which honestly, a lot of hate comes from him being bearish while I see certain TMCers be even more egregiously wrong on the upside met with silence/amnesia) but he's a worthwhile follow.

 

[jkirkwood001]

YouTube live audio stream:

 

[SarahsDad]

Elon carefully preparing...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618371072486936578

 

[mongo]

In the last 4 quarters automotive GM% has reduced from 33% to 26%, almost 2% down per quarter.

If it stabilises at 26% that is one thing, but if it carries on falling at a rate of 7% per year that is quite another thing.

We can take it as a given that Tesla will be working as hard as ever on the cost side of the equation. We also know from Musk's recent statements that they will adjust prices to keep the expanding production capacity full. So the next few years are very much a real world experiment in what the early mass market buyers think is a tolerable price.

1. Back out reg credits
2. Q1 2022 was 30% after credits
3. Yearly chart:

 

[bkp_duke]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618368995928969218

Paging Moody's!!!

 

[jkirkwood001]

In the midst of all the excitement over Q4 earnings, myself, @MartinAustin , and @Gigapress found time for a tiny Tesla Investor meetup in Austin last evening. In true Tesla fashion, we supped near a Tesla showroom, with at least one of us parked at the Superchargers nearby.
Much was discussed, including but not limited to the oft-undervalued longevity of Tesla vehicles, and demonstrated by MartinAustin's 2013 Model S with well over 250k miles on it - original battery and all. A lot of discussion about the possible and expected synergy with Boring Loop(s) and Tesla's lead in autonomy, combining with their lowest-cost-per-mile solution and all that implies about the future of *clean and cheap* city mobility and who might dominate it. For humor, there was some (only semiserious) gnashing of teeth over my partner's buying the "discounted" 2022 Model Y, 2 weeks before the big Jan price drop. Hey - she did her part for Q4, still excited about the free SC miles.
We all expected Model Y to be best selling car on earth shortly-- possibly there already by TTM measurement. Further discussion of the excellent, low-debt high-cash-flow financial condition of the company and the discovery of the exciting news about Giga Nevada implying a LOT more 4680's in our future helped to round out the fine and rewarding conversation.
Martin and Giga, please feel free to add your own touches.

IMO : HODL FTW (NotInvestmentAdvice)

Yeah, according to one set of figures I've compiled, Model Y IS already the top selling vehicle in the world. See here.

 

[ZeApelido]

Orders so far this year at twice the rate of production.

 

[mongo]

So what is the 4.3 billion under the “purchase of investments” about?

That seems to be the primary reason for the low FCF

FCF is separate from that.
The 4.4B reduced cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash.
FCF added to it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Possible buyback initiation or extra buffer for factories?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618364797552320513

Lock in on interest rates perhaps? (despite being up there already)
Seems like a rainy day reserve, then pay it back post recession if it was needed.

 

[mspohr]

Yeah, according to one set of figures I've compiled, Model Y IS already the top selling vehicle in the world. See here.

Looks like "peak ICE" was 2019-2020.