Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[H Mak]

Delighted all round with the earnings and the presentation.
Beat consensus estimates, no surprises, no mis-steps in the presentation. All questions answered confidently and knowledgeably (continue to be impressed with Zach)
Exciting products either going into production or in the future pipeline
Tesla delivers in ways other auto companies can't even dream of
On track to be the world's most valuable company
Glad I'm invested to the extent I am

 

[Ogre]

Everyone just breathed a giant sigh of relief.

I’m going to go sip my infused tequilla and chill until our night ride later tonight.

Good chance we’re going to have a fairly smooth ride until the March 1st meeting. Then, who knows.


PS: Did they mention the Model Y is goign to be the best selling car in the world this year? If they did, BINGO. I lost audio for big chunks of the call.

Spoiler: Bingo

 

[SOULPEDL]

imho ....

I have noticed that of late Musk has become more evenhanded in his inclusion of wind alongside solar. Which is good as wind makes more energy than solar both in US and worldwide, so this is an improved and more realistic stance.

However I don't think that the trends in wind turbines are a good fit for either Tesla or Musk at this time, and nor are the trends very amenable to change.

In solar the bulk of the energy (and capacity) is in utility scale, but residential (domestic) scale are very significant in most countries, typically between a quarter and a third. In contrast in the wind space almost everything is in utility scale wind. The segment known as small scale wind (which in the US is desperately trying to rebrand itself as distributed wind) is not even visible as a rounding error. There is a possibility that they might try something in the small wind segment to try and change that. I hope not as it would be an even more painful lesson than the Tesla Solar history has been in the residential segment.

In about 8-years time there might be a market entry opportunity into large scale offshore floating wind for the business that Tesla may have become by then. I doubt Tesla would want to try that, but it is more conceivable at that point.

"Tesla Energy has 20% growth, even faster growth than auto." Sounded like it was quarterly growth? BoomGTD! Did anyone see margins on the Energy side?

FSD, right? Paraphrasing... "Tesla Safety systems use the same FSD AI." I always suspected, but not confirmed. That's why all the cars have FSD now, so they can become idiot proof no matter the driver, soonish.

Speaking of software upgrades that are yet untapped, where's MYP track mode?

 

[Singuy]

Man that was the call investors were hoping for as people looked past Q4 report with zero movement. Thanks to the Tesla team for being straight to the point with honest substantial answers!

 

[Singuy]

"Tesla Energy has 20% growth, even faster growth than auto." Sounded like it was quarterly growth? BoomGTD! Did anyone see margins on the Energy side?

FSD, right? Paraphrasing... "Tesla Safety systems use the same FSD AI." I always suspected, but not confirmed. That's why all the cars have FSD now, so they can become idiot proof no matter the driver, soonish.

Speaking of software upgrades that are yet untapped, where's MYP track mode?

Energy margins were like 13-14%. Something like that when I did a rough calc.

 

[Mengy]

Everyone just breathed a giant sigh of relief.

I’m going to go sip my infused tequilla and chill until our night ride later tonight.

Good chance we’re going to have a fairly smooth ride until the March 1st meeting. Then, who knows.

Judging from how hard Elon, Zach, and Drew kept working to avoid talking about "future products", I think we are in for a very pleasant Investor Day in a few weeks.

 

[Thekiwi]

Y’all keep arguing about what the next vehicle will be…it’s a van…It’s a robotaxi!…it’s a hatchback!…its a smaller sedan!….etc etc.

It’s likely that what they are referring to as the next vehicle platform is all those things. A easily adaptable design that will enable all these vehicle types to be built on the same production line with the same powertrain.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA A/Hrs Record Volume today:

6:40 pm: 19,511,775​

Previous: 14,574,990​

+33.9% higher Volume​

... and TSLA is still trading at a high pace.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[bkp_duke]

Y’all keep arguing about what the next vehicle will be…it’s a van…It’s a robotaxi!…it’s a hatchback!…its a smaller sedan!….etc etc.
It’s likely that what they are referring to as the next vehicle platform is all those things. A easily adaptable design that will enable all these vehicle types to be built on the same production line withe the same powertrain.

I would have liked to know margins on Megapack, but I guess for now that's a "trade secret".

 

[Drumheller]

So which factory might produce Optimus?

I think this may be a hint

 

[NicoV]

Maybe some kind of minivan. With 3 rows, 2 seats each row rear seats pop out. Like a stubby hot dog.

So basically an VW ID.Buzz. Which is also available as a people carrier and cargo carrier, depending on interior configuration.
Elon, shut up and take my money! (For the Vanlife version).

 

[Thekiwi]

Fairly good conference call - with the most important point being right at the start with order demand currently double the production rate.

 

[Ogre]

Judging from how hard Elon, Zach, and Drew kept working to avoid talking about "future products", I think we are in for a very pleasant Investor Day in a few weeks.

I definitely got the impression Musk is ready to drop the other shoe. His very last comment on the call was eluding to not spoiling a future product announcement.

Lots of hints and flex on the call about future products. Seems like 2023 is going to be fleshing out and prepping for a monster 2024 - 2025.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Fairly good conference call - with the most important point being right at the start with order demand currently double the production rate.

Guess that was Tesla's way of squashing any further demand issues for the near future. Cutthroat pricing while maintaining a healthy margin.

 

[petit_bateau]

"Tesla Energy has 20% growth, even faster growth than auto." Sounded like it was quarterly growth? BoomGTD! Did anyone see margins on the Energy side?

What boom ? A small miaow, that maybe will become a purr with time.

 

[Ogre]

So basically an VW ID.Buzz. Which is also available as a people carrier and cargo carrier, depending on interior configuration.
Elon, shut up and take my money! (For the Vanlife version).

Yeah, I do think that’s in the ballpark of where they will land. Except it’ll be efficient and I suspect very minimalist in design.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Maybe some kind of minivan. With 3 rows, 2 seats each row rear seats pop out. Like a stubby hot dog.

They certainly kept the show interest in the series with the teasers and their repeated marketing of Investor Day March 1st.
This One More Thing is such an important part of the Brand. Tesla will deliver on the future, while the most valuable company in the world is coming soon.

 

[wipster]

Great information there by Zach about Insurance

Yes, but I didn't hear him talk about a big driver for reduced costs by the information Tesla captures about each driver. Huge advantage. You notice how all the other insurance companies are offering discounts if you let them record your driving habits... and because you know you'll pay less you probably drive safer because of that.

And Tesla does that by default, whether you can use their insurance or not. Knowledge is king and they know how to use it.

 

[NicoV]

Yeah, I do think that’s in the ballpark of where they will land. Except it’ll be efficient and I suspect very minimalist in design.

Hopefully efficient enough to have better range than the ID.Buzz.
A couple of earnings calls ago Elon already said that the robotaxi platform would be build to accommodate a flexible interior.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What boom ? A small miaow, that maybe will become a purr with time.

View attachment 899859

So then how does he claim it's faster than auto growth. Must be accel faster then.
(Edit: Never mind, that was with Insurance - I misremembered, like Elon said yesterday on the stand.)