Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Your adjusted game plan sounds like mine. In case TSLA dips from the current price at any point this year, I'll be buying 2023 calls.

I bought some of the calls during the “Dip” when Tesla was trading at $700-900 ($233 - $300 post split)… some of them were worth less than 5% of what I paid when I converted.

I do not recommend this strategy at all. As I said… had a pile of lemons and needed to do something with it. If it pays off it’ll be a giant crap shot. It was nauseating at times seeing what my port looked like and in spite of big words above, there is a solid chance I won‘t revisit my personal ATH for a while yet.

 

[MC3OZ]

Also, once they've sold, missed the rise, they often don't buy back in, ever.

They hold onto their decision, lose out. Bitterness and a chain of wrong-headed self-justifying thoughts seem to follow.

To those doubting Elon/Tesla decisions, I think a better question is- what investment is better? For themselves and for humanity's future?

Renewables are winning (cheaper, focus of new capacity and investments). Huge recent improvements to Europe's dependence on an unreliable neighbour have been made lately. Just a bit more, a bit longer, to embed these changes in more places & we've stopped digging the hole for climate change. Still have to fill the hole in, to get back, but huge progress in a short time. Tesla is a very visible part of this to the general population.

Just on EVs winning, this SMR video quotes some interesting numbers and shows some interesting graphs from Ark Invest:-

(I'm 1/2 way through)

 

[WADan]

(Sorry if this had been posted here. I have not been following this thread for a few days)

Toyota Calls On Science To Tell EV-Only Extremists That They’re Wrong

After critics said it's dragging its feet on the matter of wider EV-only adoption, Toyota says science will prove its strategy is safe and sound.

insideevs.com

Toyota is arguing that due to short supply of lithium, it is better to build more hybrids (with small battery) since a larger fleet of hybrids would reduce CO2 more than a small fleet of EVs (with big battery).

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't know if it is worth my while but I try to be civilised. These guys have such a negative bias like as we are following Elon like Jim Jones.

Non-zero chance you're arguing with a 'bot. Significant chance you're talking to the wall. Shortzes haven't changed their minds, or their talking points, in a decade. Surprised he didn't mention solar city. Waste the time if you've got it; you won't change his mind

 

[Artful Dodger]

Isweartogodisweartogodisweartogod I will take some profits this time.

... or lock in profits with long-dated Puts on the money you'll need in that period, or the capital you may have borrowed against (think of it as part of the cost of money, the insurance part).

Jus' sayin'...

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also, once they've sold, missed the rise, they often don't buy back in, ever.

They hold onto their decision, lose out. Bitterness and a chain of wrong-headed self-justifying thoughts seem to follow.

... then they buy a Volkswagen ID4 (even though they take the train into the City).

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[UkNorthampton]

... then they buy a Volkswagen ID4 (even though they take the train into the City).

Cheers to the Longs!

They never give up, apparently. "They're finished"

 

[Artful Dodger]

No, they don't say in the next 12 months, or in 2023. They just say over time, with no bounds:

View attachment 899978

In it's 2022 10-K, Tesla clarified the time frame for FSD revenue recognition:

"Of the total deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2022, we expect to recoginze $639 million of revenue in the next 12 months."​

That's about $1.11B in FSD deferred revenue reconized over 5 quarters.

Cheers!

 

[ThisStockGood]

 

[CYBRTRK420]

premarket looking really good today. Hopefully US market opening wont push a turn to the downside.

I love the stonk!

 

[Mengy]

talking about prognostications: TSLA $400+ in sometime in 2023 seems like a very high probability
just my personal opinion, not financial advice

Just because I'm curious, why do you think TSLA has a good chance to get back over $400 sometime in 2023?


I think it's likely the Fed might pause the hikes in March, and then take a "wait and see" approach to inflation. I also think inflation is trending down already, BUT I also feel the reversal and recovery will take the better part of this year. So I also think the market might experience small rallies throughout 2023 but I don't think we'll be approaching market normals until sometime in 2024, and in my opinion we likely won't see our ATH until the Fed has started decreasing rates and the market has fully recovered.

The price cuts will impact our margins and EPS numbers, and that coupled with a recovering market will hold us down for the better part of 2023, IMHO.

So, in contrast to your own, my opinion is we won't reach $400 in 2023. I'd like to see it, but I don't think it's likely to happen that quickly.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, in contrast to your own, my opinion is we won't reach $400 in 2023. I'd like to see it, but I don't think it's likely to happen that quickly.

The important part is not $400, or any other number specifically, it's whether TSLA can return to it's long-term* trend line. That gives the stock a momentum of its own with a large proportion of the Market waiting for that signal.

*this btw is why bears began attacking the growth story a year ago (and why their narrative is unravelling now).

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Entering the vertical of the S-curve in Europe:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621122996957220865

 

[Thekiwi]

Model Y in US now Mar-May delivery estimate

 

[unk45]

Lotus to go public via SPAC.

What could possibly go wrong?

Lotus will go public via SPAC with $5.4 billion valuation

Lotus Tech will merge with a SPAC whose sponsor combined with the private equity operations of Arnault’s luxury-goods powerhouse LVMH in 2016.

www.autoblog.com

Just don't forget who's behind this one. It could be different than most others. I am NOT saying it will be different, after all this is Lotus, that has not made money since Colin Chapman days, even then with serious question marks. OTOH, the Lotus Elite and Seven were the most fun I ever had in a car.

Not too long in the future we'll see seriously fun small cheap sports cars much like the original Tesla Roadster, but cheap and better. That may well happen from Tesla, eventually.

I have no idea if such things will come soon, but such newer examples as Mazda Miata have been both popular and profitable. March 1 certainly will nt have such offerings, but 2025 is not far away and by then critical battery shortage will have diminished according to Elon.

 

[ThisStockGood]

So… now that we’re past recession and .75 hikes - let’s just pass that 200 mark and get back to the usual pattern.

Cheers to the longs

(I call $200 intraday today and a close just below $198)

 

[CitizenKane]

Entering the vertical of the S-curve in Europe:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621122996957220865

View attachment 902352

What's up with Italy?

 

[AndrewZ]

Model Y in US now Mar-May delivery estimate

This might start modulating now with the IRA credits changing in March, disclaimers on the order page saying that, and estimated delivery pushing beyond

 

[SunCatcher]

So… now that we’re past recession and .75 hikes - let’s just pass that 200 mark and get back to the usual pattern.

Cheers to the longs

(I call $200 intraday today and a close just below $198)

Indeed. And I don't know about you, but I'm ready to feel like a Gangsta again.

Kidding aside, this has been one hell of a ride. And it ain't over yet!

 

[UncaNed]

talking about prognostications: TSLA $400+ in sometime in 2023 seems like a very high probability
just my personal opinion, not financial advice

I totally agree. As does Elon's highly probably recession. I'm keeping some dry powder.