Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

Mainly cars on boats due to arrive this month.

A small percentage that is not yet matched, or orders that got cancelled or something like that.

FWIW Model Y inventory in the Netherlands stands at 25 cars.

It looks like a new ship might have just arrived overnight

But anything listed in inventory should be VINs ready for purchase and not representing vehicles that are already sold and merely in transit, otherwise you wouldn't be able to click into each one and hit the Buy button. They might be in transit on a ship or on land, but they're ready for buyin'

We also don't know what exactly those numbers mean in terms of physical vehicles, I'm just watching trends and at what points things tend to be happening.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The actual paper this is based on is in Science https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1347

Looking at the suplementary material (I don't have access to the actual paper) the production processes they used are costly in energy and time, they would have to be completely changed for mass production.

Kondori, A., Esmaeilirad, M., Harzandi, A. M., Amine, R., Saray, M. T., Yu, L., ... & Asadi, M. (2023). A room temperature rechargeable Li2O-based lithium-air battery enabled by a solid electrolyte. Science, 379(6631), 499-505.​

Note that you can request a copy directly from the authors: (requires a free researchgate.net login ID)

A room temperature rechargeable Li2O-based lithium-air battery enabled by a solid electrolyte | Request PDF

 

[GOVA]

That's just for Retail short sellers, who are forced to play by the actual rules. Whereas, any two* Options Market Makers can simply play 'hot potato', swapping their naked shorts (on which they play no interest since these shares do not exist and thus have no payee). Then, if they eventually do create a fail-to-deliver (FTD report expected to be filed only after 14 days), they can simply move those shares to a satellite exchange like Toronto TSX where the FTDs are nolonger reported to FINRA.

TL;dr It's a rigged game, Retail is fleeced on the long and the short side by MMs+Hedgies

P.S. *last I heard, their were 28 registered entitities making a market for TSLA Options

What needs to happen literally for this to get fixed? Is there any hope?

 

[Artful Dodger]

What needs to happen literally for this to get fixed? Is there any hope?

The SEC could get some dentures (low probability). Congress could act (unlikely). TSLA could move to another Exchange such as the LTSE (won't change the broader Market).

I think the best solution is a some form of block-chain technology, coupled with instant settlement of trades (not the current 2-day for stocks, 1-day for options). That would negate the very reason to allow naked short selling by MMs (that is, the golden calf, liquidity).

Do I think the SEC will act (in my lifetime)? No, I don't but I'm a ***** ****.

SEC.gov | SEC Issues Proposal to Reduce Risks in Clearance and Settlement

www.sec.gov

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622949646053040128

Lot of startups

 

[rsm287]

Your chart is total inventory, S, 3, X, Y, his chart was just Y.

Thanks, I missed that it was referring to Model Y only. Unfortunately it's too late to edit my post now (seems you only get 60 minutes to do that).

 

[jerry33]

Thanks, I missed that it was referring to Model Y only. Unfortunately it's too late to edit my post now (seems you only get 60 minutes to do that).

Correct. In the past people changed their posts to "win" an argument, so there is now only a limited time to edit.

 

[Buckminster]

In an annual regulatory filing Tuesday, Hertz said its rental fleet in the Americas peaked at 428,700 vehicles last year, and that Teslas were 11% of its fleet. That means Hertz had fewer than 50,000 Teslas in its fleet — less than half the 100,000 the company said it would order by the end of 2022.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622986997718478849

 

[UkNorthampton]

What needs to happen literally for this to get fixed? Is there any hope?

There's a bit of a movement starting. I don't follow it too closely. One thing I did pick up is there HAVE been successful legal actions, but with gagging clauses, so we don't know much about the settlements in individual cases. As there's more of a Movement, Playbook and Specialists - each of those build on each other so that a "Machine Gun" is possible, both for individual companies (repeating actions that entail audits of shares) and for companies in general as part of the Movement, utilising the Playbook, employing seasoned Specialists. My hope is that Tesla's crack legal beagles will do something.

This channel includes some info - https://www.youtube.com/@RogerJamesHamilton1

He covers Tesla shorting as an aside in some videos.

Concrete steps for CEOs - timestamped -

( @ZeApelido / Elon - have a watch).

This video includes Wes Christian who is a lawyer fighting Short Sellers. Timestamped at something like "how companies can change" (hint: special dividend, perhaps more) followed by "What Shareholders need to do"- timestamped -

MMTLP / Wes Christian - 13 points to Hedge Funds - timestamped -

You bad, bad enablers of shorters with your margin accounts and options (I know, more to it than that).

 

[Kenypowa]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622986997718478849

Hertz has Tesla outside of US as well so I wouldn't be sure about those 50000 outstanding orders.

 

[petit_bateau]

Passenger cars and light trucks are not the same. The Cybertruck is a light truck. Not a small passenger car.

Yeah, dodging the rules that are designed to safeguard yourself; other road users and adjacent humans; and reduce emissions, by calling a consumer vehicle a "light truck" is not a good look. I rather suspect that at some point this will get more scrutiny from legislators, at least in the EU. (Not getting at you, just a commentary on a sad state of affairs).

OK, so what does that mean in terms of Cybertruck meeting EU regulations?

We don't know, because we do not know which elements of non-compliance with EU homologation rules that Tesla apparently disregarded during the design stage. It may be that it is something trivial to work around. I guess we will find out in due course. However in any case they are likely to be in somewhat limited quantities if they are imported from USA into EU as light trucks. This is because they will face a 25% import tariff. So great for being a public nuisance in Kensington and the Champs Elysee, not so relevant as a high volume trade product. I rather suspect it will become irrelevant once EU production of vans/etc commences by Tesla as that series of products will be designed to fit EU (UNECE) homologation rules in all respects.

(The reason this tariff is so high is because US put a high tariff on EU (France & Germany etc) light trucks during the "Chicken War" and it has remained in place ever since, and the EU responded. So 22% in one direction and 25% in the other)

p4 of https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2019/february/tradoc_157704.pdf :

" US exports of passenger cars to the EU face a tariff of 10% and EU exports to the US face tariffs of 2.5%. But exports of pick-ups and trucks popular in the US face a 25% import tariff. US producers face 10% to 22% in the other direction [i.e. from EU to USA], depending on engine size."

Chicken tax - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[JRP3]

We don't know, because we do not know which elements of non-compliance with EU homologation rules that Tesla apparently disregarded during the design stage. It may be that it is something trivial to work around. I guess we will find out in due course. However in any case they are likely to be in somewhat limited quantities if they are imported from USA into EU as light trucks. This is because they will face a 25% import tariff. So great for being a public nuisance in Kensington and the Champs Elysee, not so relevant as a high volume trade product.

Seems like almost no good reasons for Tesla to try and tweak Cybertruck for EU sales.

 

[2daMoon]

Hey! I got my share back from the $0.57 margin call kerfuffle for less than IBKR sold it for. YAY!

Now, after that thankful dip, on to ATH, infinity, and beyond!

HODL

 

[LYTRIDR]

The Supercharger Network is one of Tesla's most valuable assets in terms of being able to leverage it to create more future car sales. And the best way to do that is to increase the user base to make an increasing number of out-of-the way Supercharger locations economically viable. The value of the network multiplies several-fold if it's everywhere a user might want it to be and the best way to achieve that is with more users.

The way this leverages the network to create more sales is by only opening up a portion of the network to non-Tesla. If a non-Tesla likes using the Supercharger network but 25% of the locations show up on their screen as "Tesla only" then it creates a powerful incentive for the next car purchase to be a Tesla.

This is a pretty basic strategy of giving non-customers a taste of what it's like to have Supercharger access, while not giving them the entire experience until they make their next vehicle a Tesla. Tesla has invested many millions of dollars building the best and biggest fast charging network, using their own funds, while legacy auto wasted their money on Superbowl ads. How's that's going work out for them when their customers go to Tesla for most of their DC fast charging needs.

Love the idea of "limited access" to Super Charger stations. Expanding on that, it would not have to be a location blackout, but could easily be a limited number of dedicated cabinets or chargers at each location. For example an 8 supercharger station might have 6 Tesla dedicated stations and 2 brand agnostic stations. That way the extra delays for Tesla drivers is limited, while the other brands see the Teslas pull in, charge, and depart while they are either waiting or charging.

 

[jw934]

By the way, Ron Baron will be on CNBC tomorrow.

source: Jim Cramer

Here is the 3 minutes Ron Baron's clip talking about Tesla.

Nothing important. Not worth watching. Summary:
- Tesla is the safest car in the world
- He asked Toyota on their strategy. They replied that they wants the "lowest cost of mobility in the world", but did not provide any strategy.
- Mark Field told Ron about how bad is Tesla a few years ago. He was totally wrong.

 

[jerry33]

Yeah, dodging the rules that are designed to safeguard yourself; other road users and adjacent humans; and reduce emissions, by calling a consumer vehicle a "light truck" is not a good look. I rather suspect that at some point this will get more scrutiny from legislators, at least in the EU. (Not getting at you, just a commentary on a sad state of affairs).


We don't know, because we do not know which elements of non-compliance with EU homologation rules that Tesla apparently disregarded during the design stage. It may be that it is something trivial to work around. I guess we will find out in due course. However in any case they are likely to be in somewhat limited quantities if they are imported from USA into EU as light trucks. This is because they will face a 25% import tariff. So great for being a public nuisance in Kensington and the Champs Elysee, not so relevant as a high volume trade product. I rather suspect it will become irrelevant once EU production of vans/etc commences by Tesla as that series of products will be designed to fit EU (UNECE) homologation rules in all respects.

(The reason this tariff is so high is because US put a high tariff on EU (France & Germany etc) light trucks during the "Chicken War" and it has remained in place ever since, and the EU responded. So 22% in one direction and 25% in the other)

p4 of https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2019/february/tradoc_157704.pdf :

" US exports of passenger cars to the EU face a tariff of 10% and EU exports to the US face tariffs of 2.5%. But exports of pick-ups and trucks popular in the US face a 25% import tariff. US producers face 10% to 22% in the other direction [i.e. from EU to USA], depending on engine size."

Chicken tax - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Geez Guys. Tesla designed the CT for North America. Elon said that there may be a smaller version for the EU down the road. Whether the current CT meets the EU standards or not is more or less moot at this point.

 

[Tim S]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622986997718478849

I tried to reserve a Tesla through Hertz recently for an upcoming trip to Southern California (ONT), but there were none available. I tried Avis instead, and the EV option was "Tesla Model 3 or similar". I didn't want to take a chance on what they consider similar, so I tried Turo instead. There were lots of Teslas available, and I found a Model Y Performance with FSD for about $60/day (almost $80/day including taxes and fees). I can't wait to drive it!

My point is, Hertz needs more Teslas.

 

[petit_bateau]

Seems like almost no good reasons for Tesla to try and tweak Cybertruck for EU sales.

It is the government (i.e. the EU nation state that is the destination) that gets the 25% import tariff revenue, not Tesla. So from Tesla's perspective this is something that will keep demand low for no additional profit.

To be honest the US market is so nuts about driving round in trucks that they can pay whatever Tesla chooses to charge and Austin will still have trouble meeting demand for years to come. Minor amounts leaking out of NAFTA to other markets is not really an issue. I'm sure some stupid idiots will import some to use as Chelsea tractors, but more fool them. And pretty quickly I am sure Tesla will have a series of van products that are more relevant to the EU market, perhaps made in Berlin ... or some other EU/etc factory. Whether they will share any elements of CT platform will be interesting to see. So personally I don't think the importability and compliance of the CT into EU is a big deal, but I do note that there are lots of people raising interesting flags regarding the NCAP/etc safety issues.

[EDIT : I see some USA truck nuts really don't like how the world sees them]

 

[Nocturnal]

Love the idea of "limited access" to Super Charger stations. Expanding on that, it would not have to be a location blackout, but could easily be a limited number of dedicated cabinets or chargers at each location. For example an 8 supercharger station might have 6 Tesla dedicated stations and 2 brand agnostic stations. That way the extra delays for Tesla drivers is limited, while the other brands see the Teslas pull in, charge, and depart while they are either waiting or charging.

Tesla could also only open up locations that operate at say less than 70% capacity currently. Just let the network grow and expand to offer 3rd party charging organically.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hey! I got my share back from the $0.57 margin call kerfuffle for less than IBKR sold it for. YAY!

Now, after that thankful dip, on to ATH, infinity, and beyond!

HODL

You sure showed them who's boss!!!