Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Something about this "Key Data" (circled) seems a mite out of touch today

...here's to hoping this post ages well.

 

[GOVA]

Once Tsla breaks $200, could happen today or tomorrow or pretty fast then $300 is in clear sight by March 1st
Not financial advice

I don't disagree, but I admire your bravery with forecasting.

 

[Singuy]

I'm excited about Investors Day. I'm even more excited about finally seeing Elon's Master Plan III. I don't expect wallstreet to get it, they never do...and, therefore, I don't expect the SP to even react positively as a result. But, I am excited to learn what I hope are significant objectives and further validation that my investment is brilliant. Excited for the HODLers

Wallstreet understands everything Elon says. However his track record with gigantic promises like FSD, 4680s, semi, roadster, dojo and solar roof have been spotty. Elon always jump the gun and want you to "imagine a world" type scenario and we investors expect Wallstreet to model a future EPS with the potential or else "they don't get it". That's nonsense, everyone gets the vision, just not many believes in the execution.

 

[Nocturnal]

Investor day background pic speculation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623346777658126340

YT link

Spoiler

 

[betstarship]

Wallstreet understands everything Elon says. However his track record with gigantic promises like FSD, 4680s, semi, roadster, dojo and solar roof have been spotty. Elon always jump the gun and want you to "imagine a world" type scenario and we investors expect Wallstreet to model a future EPS with the potential or else "they don't get it". That's nonsense, everyone gets the vision, just not many believes in the execution.

I have yet to see another company have the following set up:

1. Everyone gets the mission
2. Many gets the vision
3. The company has executed a modest amount of a grand mission/vision
4. The only variable left is execution

To me, there's so much latent value in the valuation to acquire thanks to this set up. I'm not surprised people are literally volunteering to a for-profit company to help with their execution over the years (and still, I think). All in order to execute on the mission/vision. Sometimes, I feel like if the only uncertain variable is execution...then every investor ought to be volunteering to help this company execute by not just buying/using/promoting the products, but also delivering on as much feedback as the company can handle. I think the latter is happening, but I'd be curious to see if Tesla ever creates a more formal way for people to volunteer to help the mission/vision.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Investor day background pic speculation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623346777658126340

YT link

Spoiler

Only issue is that they don't work 365 days/year, esp in Giga Shanghai.

 

[Singuy]

Munro said the total body side outer on rack in the picture represents 1 day of production.

 

[gillfoto]

I'm a 'Glaswegian' by birth and upbringing, and now a Naturalized US citizen. Maybe we should all show the people of this Country how we feel about Tesla.

 

[2daMoon]

I'm a 'Glaswegian' by birth and upbringing, and now a Naturalized US citizen. Maybe we should all show the people of this Country how we feel about Tesla.View attachment 904712

Looking forward to the day they put a sticker on the back saying:

"Another Vehicle From America's Most Successful Automaker"​

 

[JRP3]

I don't disagree, but I admire your bravery with forecasting.

It's not bravery...

 

[JRP3]

I'm even more excited about finally seeing Elon's Master Plan III.

My expectations are low, (better chance of being surprised.)

 

[scaesare]

Wallstreet understands everything Elon says. However his track record with gigantic promises like FSD, 4680s, semi, roadster, dojo and solar roof have been spotty. Elon always jump the gun and want you to "imagine a world" type scenario and we investors expect Wallstreet to model a future EPS with the potential or else "they don't get it". That's nonsense, everyone gets the vision, just not many believes in the execution.

I disagreed with your post because, while Wall Street droids may understand the words being spoken, it's clear to me that they do not always understand the implication... often by a long shot.

 

[JRP3]

New LF video on battery production

 

[larmor]

Munro said the total body side outer on rack in the picture represents 1 day of production.

Phew i thought they were going to give out battery factories if attendees checked under their seats ala Oprah.

 

[StealthP3D]

Did I miss the conversation on the bomb dropped in this Jeff Dahn video about 4680 progress?

"going from wet to dry electrode"

"bringing that equipment up to mass-production scale"

"those challenges are virtually now overcome"



at 51 min. Since it's from October, he must be oversimplifying what their progress is...

Dahn is just looking at the timescale more from the standpoint of technology development and innovation instead of through the eyes of an impatient investor who wants mass production to begin two weeks ago.

 

[Ogre]

Stock has recovered a bit and now suddenly it seems that almost everyone is more jubelent than ever. I see this now in over hyping the event of March 1, as we have not gone through enough last year.

My advise is to keep your feet firmly on the ground and just see where it goes the coming months. Just see what Elon has to say on March 1 and don't get hyped-up by people posting here. Before you know it you will be thrown into the deep again, with investing your emergency fund (I am guilty of doing that last year) or even getting into margin.

Yep.

I like chatting about the potential of the thing.

I think where frustration and disappointment turn up is falling in love with these "What Ifs". Just keep in mind nobody at Tesla has said the event will feature:

• Specifics about Cybertruck, Highland, or Gen 3 vehicles. Cybertruck and Gen 3 will be discussed but not clear how much
• Tesla Energy. I know it's the talk of the season, but Tesla has put out a promo video and said nothing about it in relation to this event
• FSD 11. Likewise. The event seems to be about manufacturing and scaling.
• 4680 and battery supply. Ouch. Pains me to say this, but not yet on the published agenda.

We might well get some of this stuff, but no guarantees. Tesla's stated scope for this meeting seems to be: Factory tour/ discussion, Master Plan 3, Generation 3 Platform, Cybertruck. Not clear how much detail they will go into on any of those either.

I'm going to keep talking about these, even in the context of the meeting. Just gotta separate in your mind all of the "It would be cool if..."s from the "Tesla promised us.."s.

 

[gillfoto]

Looking forward to the day they put a sticker on the back saying:

"Another Vehicle From America's Most Successful Automaker"​

Sorry, too wordy. - Tesla USA ahead of ICE

 

[Creekstalker]

Didn't Elon already say that Master Plan 3 is basically just about increasing the scale of production? I'm not expecting a big TSLA pullback after Investor Day because the plan is basically just "MOAR" and I think even Wall Street can comprehend this.

Now, there will be a slight drop when Elon doesn't announce an Autonomous Electric Airplane or something like that, but I expect the current upward trend to generally continue as long as the macroeconomic situation doesn't collapse.

 

[Ogre]

Combine that with a Master plan 3 that goes "over the head" of Wall street it might end up with a classic buy the rumor and sell the fact situation.

This too.

This is why I hope we get a nice run up to the meeting. Solid chance there is a bit of a post meeting dip or doldrums. Tentatively planning on my first bit of de-leveraging prior to the meeting.

 

[unk45]

@unk45 I would be really grateful to take up your offer "If anyone really wants to know the arcane rules, several of us, including me, can provide all the excruciating detail." specifically in regard to two UK brokers who I think handle the vast majority of UK private retail shareholders:

- ii (interactive investor – the UK’s number one flat-fee investment platform) who are actually a US private equity front, so I'm sure they know how to run this angle
- Hargreaves Lansdown (Benefit from an award-winning investment service) who are never known to willingly turn down a profit

The vast majority of UK private retail shareholders who trade via those two brokers will be long-only, i.e. they hold their shares "free and clear", like myself. In the case of ii they don't offer options trading at all (Trade options at Interactive Investor) and I think HL is similar (I'm not sure, their fee structure never convinced me). Most UK retail options traders use spread betters as their platforms, not brokerages, unlike the USA.

I think UK retail is second only to US retail in being private holders of TSLA, so this is a question worth pursuing a little. In the past when I've tried to pursue it I've not found an answer. Certainly TSLA appears to be the #1 share choice of all UK private retail investments into USA. As you say this lack of an answer, is likely to be deliberate obfuscation !

So if you can figure out an answer that would likely be of great interest to a lot of folk in the UK.

Bottom line:
- I think UK retail TSLA shareholders are having their stocks lents out to TSLA shorts (via custodians), with no say in the matter;
- I think UK brokerages are profiting all of the short-lending fees, not passing through any to the specific named beneficiaries;
- And there is zero disclosure regarding this to UK retail TSLA shareholders from any of the UK retail brokerages.

First: interactive investor:
From Contract Notes:

1. 12.5 You agree that we may act for other customers in a wide range of transactions with interests that differ from, or conflict with, yours. You also agree that we will not be required to disclose to you information known to us (or another member of our Group) that is confidential to those parties and may be relevant to your interests,

That nice little clause lets them do what they will using abrdn subsdiaries or their own, leaving the scope wide open. As squall that is in the fine print few people read.

Second: Hargreaves Lansdown:
Their conflicts of interest policy is quite comprehensive:

https://media-prod.ii.co.uk/s3fs-public/pdfs/conflicts_of_interest.pdf

That seems to ensure that they will not lend your securities without disclosure.
The downside is that their fee structure is quite onerous and makes using them unattractive to those who care about actual returns. The do not disclose specific US securities custodial terms which allows them a potential exception, but diligent investors could still catch that through that conflicts of interest policy.

Note: I do not represent these observations as factual. I am not an attorney nor am I registered in any investment capacity. Further I have no qualification in the UK or elsewhere that makes my opinions valid.