Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

We'll see, I suspect this has very little to do with woke, and has more to do with having some control of the direction of AGI development, which in turn may determine the next stage of human evolution. To paraphrase someone's (rather bold) claim recently: "Those who comes up with AGI first may control human destiny for the next 1,000 years", pretty sure Musk doesn't like his fate (and the fate of his companies) to be controlled by someone else, regardless of whether that someone is woke or not.

Tesla is in a good position to help him here, with Dojo and Optimus, if they can get both to work well and at scale. The next bottleneck would be the chip fabs, which currently is very much dominated by Taiwan, not a good place to be given the geopolitics. I know people has explained in much detail why building a fab is very costly and not a good business to be in, but if the fate of humanity is on the line, he may not have a choice...

As most here know, I usually jump on these things but I see this as unlikely. Elon can see fat industries a mile off and can disrupt them without making risky scientific leaps. TSMC are about to start providing Apple with 2nm chips in volume which is an incredible achievement. A tough act to follow let alone leapfrog. Elon doesn't do second place.

 

[Ogre]

”Down Payment” of course suggests an initial pile of money to be followed by something else and probably not a final value, sounds like this is a down payment + unit price contract. So I would probably err on the side of being conservative there, knowing that domestic and free-trade battery materials will cost more and that’s part of what the IRA credits are designed to subsidize.

Starting Jan 2024, qualifying for any of the IRA credit requires a battery containing zero components from China / Russia / North Korea / Iran on top of the % of minerals coming from domestic or free-trade sources. Starting Jan 2025, the battery needs to contain zero critical battery minerals from those places. And now we see Tesla lining up big graphite anode material from Australia and cathode material from South Korea.


The IRA is doing what it’s supposed to do. I’d assume a higher price for these but who knows how Tesla will divvy up the materials through the batteries to hit the requirements while also deploying them as efficiently as possible to maximize the credits obtained, I’m sure that’s something they’re working through in detail.

I think it’s highly possible, likely even that this is going towards batteries produced and consumed outside the US. Start of the contract is 2024, plenty of time for them to bring their German battery production online. I wouldn’t even rule out Chinese or Indonesian by 2024 the end of that contract. But Berlin seems most likely.

 

[hobbes]

Unsure on the source, but looks like insured units in China were good for the week of Feb 20-26: over 10k insured.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630450035644338176

The usual source moneyball reports the same number, so likely legit:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630484733808476160

 

[Cobbler]

@piloly on Twitter for the chart

 

[petit_bateau]

The article below is worth reading in full. It centres on the recent CATL discount offer to lock-in clients.

Analysis: Lithium price slide deepens as China battery giant bets on cheaper inputs

Rare discounts offered by Chinese battery giant CATL to automakers have accelerated a plunge in lithium prices, and the market is set to drop a further 25% with supply growth outpacing demand, analysts and traders say.

www.reuters.com

 

[Mengy]

Pretty sure everyone on TMC knows this. You should probably take to Reddit/technology or twitter to say stuff like this.

I disagree, someone just posted this here yesterday as a valid argument:

"The evidence is that the competition is growing their relevant market share faster than Tesla however you want to cut it. "

I think there are still people on TMC who are concerned over Tesla's "market share" number even as other manufacturers are increasing their EV offerings.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The next bottleneck would be the chip fabs, which currently is very much dominated by Taiwan, not a good place to be given the geopolitics.

Haha! Not for long:

• Tesla supplier Samsung is building a $17B chip factory 40 mins away from Giga TX | Teslarati (Sep 8, 2021)
• Samsung to make Tesla's HW 4.0 self-driving auto chip | KED Global (2021-09-23)
• "Samsung Texas Construction Update" Samsung Chip Plant in Taylor, TX | Brad Sloan (2022-08-28)

Sounds likely that the 1st shipments of Models S/X with Hdw 4 will begin after Tesla's March 1st Investor Day. What are the chances those chips were build at the new FAB in Taylor, TX?

Elon has thought this out, and provided for Tesla's future needs well in advance. Color me NOT shocked.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Remember our old friend Nikola...

'Substantial doubt' | Hydrogen truck maker Nikola on brink of collapse after racking up $2bn of losses

US company warns it may have to ‘terminate our operations’ in next 12 months after admitting ‘continuing losses for the foreseeable future’

www.hydrogeninsight.com

How is NKLA holding "steady" as they say? And it's actually up 1/2% in pre-market today. What else besides a Semi do they produce that would make up for continued losses?

Oh... Oh... Oh... may I suggest one?

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla wins the “Overall Loyalty To Make” award, overtaking Ford who has won that award every year for the past decade.

How Tesla overtook Ford in annual brand loyalty awards | Automotive N…

archived 27 Feb 2023 13:29:41 UTC

archive.is

View attachment 911917

SMR roasts those claiming "Brand Damage" in today's episode. (commenting on the above report)
(It seems that the select few repeatedly beating that drum are themselves the ones suffering most from brand damage)

He also covers Nikola's SEC announcement of looming bankruptcy, Investor Day speculation in the media, Cathie Wood, and more. A long episode.

Enjoy!

 

[scaesare]

Let's help Elon come up with an appropriate name for his Chatbot.

There's always "ELIZA".

Development codename maybe?

 

[AndrewZ]

Haha! Not for long:

• Tesla supplier Samsung is building a $17B chip factory 40 mins away from Giga TX | Teslarati (Sep 8, 2021)
• Samsung to make Tesla's HW 4.0 self-driving auto chip | KED Global (2021-09-23)
• "Samsung Texas Construction Update" Samsung Chip Plant in Taylor, TX | Brad Sloan (2022-08-28)

Sounds likely that the 1st shipments of Models S/X with Hdw 4 will begin after Tesla's March 1st Investor Day. What are the chances those chips were build at the new FAB in Taylor, TX?

Elon has thought this out, and provided for Tesla's future needs well in advance. Color me NOT shocked.

Construction update from a week ago, this is still a long way off from producing anything (not sure why the date embedded in the video says 2022)

But it is 100% exactly the type of stuff we need to see domestically, and I think it makes for pretty exciting times here in North America. We're on the precipice of a big return to the real economy with more manufacturing etc, if only we had a bigger skilled labour workforce.

 

[ZeApelido]

Mexico President says location of Mexico factory will be in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon. Luckily the U.S. took California from Mexico or having 2 Mexicon Monterey's would be awkward.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630569383100571650

 

[ggies07]

Mexico President says location of Mexico factory will be in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon. Luckily the U.S. took California from Mexico or having 2 Mexicon Monterey's would be awkward.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630569383100571650

ahhh, so when Elon is down in south Texas for SpaceX, he can take a little jaunt over the border to visit the new plant.

 

[KBF]

We'll see, I suspect this has very little to do with woke, and has more to do with having some control of the direction of AGI development, which in turn may determine the next stage of human evolution. To paraphrase someone's (rather bold) claim recently: "Those who comes up with AGI first may control human destiny for the next 1,000 years", pretty sure Musk doesn't like his fate (and the fate of his companies) to be controlled by someone else, regardless of whether that someone is woke or not.

Tesla is in a good position to help him here, with Dojo and Optimus, if they can get both to work well and at scale. The next bottleneck would be the chip fabs, which currently is very much dominated by Taiwan, not a good place to be given the geopolitics. I know people has explained in much detail why building a fab is very costly and not a good business to be in, but if the fate of humanity is on the line, he may not have a choice...

Another piece, afaik, is that the program was supposed to be non-profit, and Microsoft has been essentially taking over. He had a Tweet a while back criticizing how OpenAI has essentially become a shell company, and that a for-profit enterprise shouldn't be owned by a non-profit. I'm sure there are other factors as well - there's a lot going on, and it will be/already is another epic disruptor.

 

[Rotte]

Oh well, at least I have a little bit of SpaceX thanks to Ron Baron!

And Twitter!

 

[unk45]

Truly Successful Macro investors are a highly specialized minority subset: likes of Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, Druckenmiller etc
Rest of us are no good at predicting macros and simply regurgitate what we read in media
So, macros for an average investor are as meaningless as knowing weather patterns in Iceland.

You think weather patterns in Iceland are unconnected with those of other locations or ocean currents, or even glacier conditions irrelevant? Ignorance is a powerful disincentive to understanding, is it not? Charts without context are similar to opinions without understanding, aren't they?

 

[FreqFlyer]

Haha! Not for long:

• Tesla supplier Samsung is building a $17B chip factory 40 mins away from Giga TX | Teslarati (Sep 8, 2021)
• Samsung to make Tesla's HW 4.0 self-driving auto chip | KED Global (2021-09-23)
• "Samsung Texas Construction Update" Samsung Chip Plant in Taylor, TX | Brad Sloan (2022-08-28)

Sounds likely that the 1st shipments of Models S/X with Hdw 4 will begin after Tesla's March 1st Investor Day. What are the chances those chips were build at the new FAB in Taylor, TX?

Elon has thought this out, and provided for Tesla's future needs well in advance. Color me NOT shocked.

You must not live here in Central Texas if you think that. The Samsung Fab is still under construction.

 

[GOVA]

There must be something pretty big coming for all these strangers to show up recently, and then the FSD lawsuit today. So I have a hunch it's gonna be an epic story Wed (on "Analyst Day" as they say on CNBC). Really... who's day is it?

HODL folks so you don't fall off the roller coaster! Gonna get crazy I bet.

Cheers!

This pretty much guarantees a down day on Thursday. As usual after something big Tesla.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This pretty much guarantees a down day on Thursday. As usual after something big Tesla.

I'm thinking today as well (per FSD lawsuit story). So I sold my usual 25 for some FU trades early this AM. (Not recommended.)

02/28/2023 08:06:20

Sold 25 TSLA @ 211.52

Buying them back will be tricky, but it makes this more fun.

 

[Christine69420]

David Lee @DaveT tweeted about the new factory - the referenced tweet with a link to the live press briefing about this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630572839823712257

NEWS: Mexico’s President AMLO confirms Tesla will build factory in Monterrey. “There is already an understanding, they are going to dedicate the investment to Mexico and the plant will be established in Monterrey with a series of commitments to face problem of water scarcity.”