Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Tesla, Musk sued by shareholders over self-driving safety claims

Tesla Inc and its Chief Executive Elon Musk were sued on Monday by shareholders who accused them of overstating the effectiveness and safety of their electric vehicles' Autopilot and Full Self-Driving technologies. In a proposed class action filed in San Francisco federal court, shareholders...

finance.yahoo.com

has been pretty safe for me ...

time for the aggressive legal team

It totally makes sense for shareholders to sue the company whose stock they own for under delivering a product. That will surely help their positions.

Oh wait. It's probably a few shorts who owned 10 shares.

 

[Hiline]

Strong evidence that autonomy or a functional Bot are imminent. Hard to make a case for TSLA present value > 1T for just the auto business. For comparison, BYD was at 135B last time I looked.

I wouldn't be so sure. Tesla made $2.3B last quarter with 450k vehicles produced. If Tesla grows 5 times while protecting their margins, they'll make $45B a year. A reasonable P/E of 20 would bring the market cap to pretty darn close to 1T.

 

[Unpilot]

Somehow, someway, through the forces of the universe, whenever $TSLA has a decent up day, articles like this seem to magically appear

This is why we have grumpy cats around here.

And why we can't have nice things.

People suck.

 

[mongo]

I wouldn't be so sure. Tesla made $2.3B last quarter with 450k vehicles produced. If Tesla grows 5 times while protecting their margins, they'll make $45B a year. A reasonable P/E of 20 would bring the market cap to pretty darn close to 1T.

More.
You are assuming all costs scale 1:1 with production.
OpEx offsets the first X cars of gross margin, then it's all profit.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Optimistically I like 2.3M as a target, but 2022 beat me up so much I'm almost afraid to see what's in store for us this year.

in my opinion, 10,000 or 20,000 share blocks is the way to buy or sell TSLA with LIMIT orders. even market orders for as little as $2 million worth of tsla stock is heavily manipulated and gets poor fills. so, yes, i agree that HFTs are trading most of tsla stock with real alive human investors doing only a relatively minor fraction.
it becomes real easily clear with zero doubt if you panic sell 100,000 shares or more of tsla in a market order. then you get robbed so fast., it's not even funny
never doing that again.
plus, large orders are broken up into numerous, and i truly mean numerous fills and it takes like forever to fill those. so liquidity is only for those who are patient enough to put in no more than 10,000 share block orders with LIMIT otherwise good luck panic selling a larger market order. more sharks on wall street than pacific ocean. Liquidity is a mirage unless you are patient and not in a huge hurry to buy or sell TSLA
that is why i stay away from TSLL. even one of my smaller accounts, it will take me all day to slowly and painfully build up a position. i am just a very small individual investor/trader. imagine the plight of institutions. those guys, takes days to weeks to months to build up position in TSLA otherwise you end up running the price upon yourself. slow and painful and not for impatient.
that is why trading TSLA everyday is a total nightmare unless you are trading smaller accounts. i do find LEAPS to be much easier to buy or sell- never had any problems with size although it still moves the price but not as much as common stock in tesla. but pros and cons of LEAps merits another long post
not financial advice

PS: my CPAs literally laughed at me this friday when i submitted 225 pages of trading in 2022 and that was a bad performance year. 2023 will be better and lot more work for CPAs

Use FOK or "fill or kill". It works with any number of shares in combination with a limit or non limit order.

 

[Gigapress]

Strong evidence that autonomy or a functional Bot are imminent. Hard to make a case for TSLA present value > 1T for just the auto business. For comparison, BYD was at 135B last time I looked.

Here’s a case: In 2028 and beyond Tesla sustainably sells 10M cars per year for $6.9k net profit each and thus earns $69B/yr. Assume investors want 5% return on capital —> 20x P/E in 2028. Discount to today by using 15x P/E now. Valuation of auto business 69*15 = $1T, and this isn’t counting profits accrued between now and 2028.

Lots of upside potential on these numbers, of course.

 

[UncaNed]

Wow!

Never saw that failure coming down the hill...

so to speak. ​

yes, of course this is ironical sarcasm, what else? (and I know "ironical" is just a Bush-ism)

ISWYDT.

 

[willow_hiller]

First mention of the Investor Day agenda I've seen:

11:00am - event check-in
11:00am-2:45pm - Factory Tours and Plaid Demo Rides
3:00-4:30pm - Keynotes
4:30-5:30pm - Q & A
5:30-7:00pm - Meet & Greet

With the times being in CST, that means the Livestream starts at the keynotes. Also interesting they've reserved a full hour for Q&A.

 

[Big Time]

You heard him!

 

[Nocturnal]

i have been studying TSLA charts across all timeframes, especially monthly and weekly charts and in my opinion following events more likely than not, based on my highly biased super bullish interpretation of TSLA chart:
sustained breakout following March 1, 2023
continued uptrend lasting 16 to 25 months, with intermediate corrections, some quite severe thereby providing great trading opportunities , eventually taking TSLA to $1000+ stock price by June 2024 and possibly even higher by feb/march 2025
Elon very likely will sell sometime after June 2024 which could cause stock price to fall precipitously but eventually recover to new highs
all of above is highly speculative and far from certain and very likely to be wrong
i write all the above solely for entertainment purposes only and not any kind of financial advice. anyone who is foolish enough to take this seriously is doing it at his or her own peril and very much against medical advice

No worries about macro?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla, Musk sued by shareholders over self-driving safety claims

Tesla Inc and its Chief Executive Elon Musk were sued on Monday by shareholders who accused them of overstating the effectiveness and safety of their electric vehicles' Autopilot and Full Self-Driving technologies. In a proposed class action filed in San Francisco federal court, shareholders...

finance.yahoo.com

has been pretty safe for me ...

time for the aggressive legal team

OT, not so much here for me. It's still trying to scare the sh** out of me. Last night I think it was about to attempt a U turn from a double left turn lane. A car was to my right also turning left, and mine did one of those swerves to the right (opposite the direction of turn) before I took over. But I'm still impressed and use it daily - crazy relationship.

 

[Ogre]

i have been studying TSLA charts across all timeframes, especially monthly and weekly charts and in my opinion following events more likely than not, based on my highly biased super bullish interpretation of TSLA chart:
sustained breakout following March 1, 2023
continued uptrend lasting 16 to 25 months, with intermediate corrections, some quite severe thereby providing great trading opportunities , eventually taking TSLA to $1000+ stock price by June 2024 and possibly even higher by feb/march 2025
Elon very likely will sell sometime after June 2024 which could cause stock price to fall precipitously but eventually recover to new highs
all of above is highly speculative and far from certain and very likely to be wrong
i write all the above solely for entertainment purposes only and not any kind of financial advice. anyone who is foolish enough to take this seriously is doing it at his or her own peril and very much against medical advice

Gave you a heart. No clue if you are correct or not... don't even really care about your track record. But you gotta love the enthusiasm here.

If we hit $500 by June 2024, I'll be ecstatic.

 

[FSDtester#1]

The title of the wealthiest person in the world belongs to Tesla CEO Elon Musk again, according to a Monday report from Bloomberg. | Fox Business Elon Musk back in No. 1 spot on Bloomberg's billionaires list

Don't have to worry about him having enough powder for his private jet anymore..

I feel better now

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is why we have grumpy cats around here.

And why we can't have nice things.

People suck.

This is just the standard play from the short sellers playbook:

1. Short a stock
2. start a PR campaign to smear the company
3. create a lawsuit to make it look serious
4. pay for lots of ginned-up negative press coverage
5. rince, repeat

The shorts had their way with TSLA since AI Day 2 in September. Now they've let the SP run up again. Why? So they can short it some more, of course.

Why do people act surprised when this happens? Recall when Jim Chanos said Tesla is one of his best shorts? That's because he knows it's a good company. If the victum died, the assailants wouldn't have a victum going forward then, would they?

As it is, and with the assistance and consent of the SEC, this will go on until something changes with the way the laws and rules are enforced on Wall St. U.S. Citizens, it's on you.

Word.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The title of the wealthiest person in the world belongs to Tesla CEO Elon Musk again...

... unless he tries to sell even a single share. Then, he'll be back to Numba Ten.

 

[Ogre]

This is just the standard play from the short sellers playbook:

1. Short a stock
2. start a PR campaign to smear the company
3. create a lawsuit to make it look serious
4. pay for lots of ginned-up negative press coverage
5. rince, repeat

The shorts had their way with TSLA since AI Day 2 in September. Now they've let the SP run up again. Why? So they can short it some more, of course.

Why do people act surprised when this happens? Recall when Jim Chanos said Tesla is one of his best shorts? That's because he knows it's a good company. If the victum died, the assailants wouldn't have a victum going forward then, would they?

As it is, and with the assistance and consent of the SEC, this will go on until something changes with the way the laws and rules are enforced on Wall St. U.S. Citizens, it's on you.

Word.

Why in a nutshell SpaceX, TBC, and NeuraLink will never be public companies.

aka Why we can't have nice things.

 

[betstarship]

Why in a nutshell SpaceX, TBC, and NeuraLink will never be public companies.

aka Why we can't have nice things.

If it helps, I don't think they'll ever need to be public. In the private equity world, there are companies that are trying to switch the model to indexing and trading even in private equity.

Edit: As well as trying to "lower the bar" to entry for private equity.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why in a nutshell SpaceX, TBC, and NeuraLink will never be public companies.

aka Why we can't have nice things.

Yeah, not gonna fix itself.

Word.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If you know anyone that ever complains to you about overpaying for their tesla or how they are livid about the recent price cuts, just show them this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629928806868811777

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Fisker confirms Ocean EV deliveries will begin in spring, it's on track to build more than 40,000 in 2023

Fisker had "approximately 65,000" reservations for the Ocean SUV, up slightly from "over 62,000" as of its prior earnings report.

www.cnbc.com

Digging deeper into this:

Genius Henrik has given himself 2 outs when they come up way short of the 40,000+ production number:

There's 43 weeks left in 2023, so they are aiming for 1k/week in production? Umm...highly doubtful.