Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mardak]

The Nevada Independent's article about Tesla's $3.6 billion investment provided a copy of Tesla's application to Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development for $330M new tax abatements (pdf). It includes some letters of support including from University of Nevada, Reno President Brian Sandoval and Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada (EDAWN). Tesla's own letter highlights the success of the previous partnership started in 2014 and the new investment:

TESLA IS MAKING A NEW COMMITMENT AND A NEW INVESTMENT IN NEVADA​

​

The objective for this latest application is to bring forward a new project – one that expects to develop a manufacturing facility that will serve as Tesla’s first high-volume Semi factory. Semi is Tesla’s fully electric combination truck, with 500 miles of range and energy consumption of less than 2 KWh per mile. In addition, the new project is expected to include a 100 GWh 4680 cell factory with capacity to produce enough batteries for an additional 1.5 million light duty vehicles annually. Notably, unlike the 2014 application, Tesla’s current submission does not include any request for transferrable tax credits.​

​

Key attributes of the new project include the following:​

• $3.6 billion investment;
• 4 million square feet of new manufacturing space;
• 3,000+ new team members; and
• Over $33 average hourly wage.

The actual application dated January 24th (same day as the public announcement) says starting improvements and breaking ground should be May with estimated completion in 3 years by May 2026. It also included an entry that Tesla considered "Austin, Texas and multiple locations in California" for this expansion:

 

[FreqFlyer]

IMO, this is where the Model 2 or whatever it will be called will be built.

Mexican president says Tesla will build a new plant in Mexico

Tesla will build a new plant in Monterrey, Mexico, and adhere to a series of commitments to address water scarcity

www.cnbc.com

 

[philw1776]

Employees, "We doan need no steenkin badges!"
EV TSLAQ Skeptics, "So, you think you can drive that car across the Baja?"

 

[Hiline]

It's crazy to think that one single manufacturing plant of Tesla (Fremont) produced almost as many units for the US market as all EV facilities of all other automakers in the US combined.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Here's a theory if the calendar seems too tight.

Samsung could ship completed wafers to Tx and have them Assembled and Tested initially until the FAB is ready. The floor-space requirement for A/T is much larger than for FAB last I visited, but is way easier to spin up with only the tooling as the bottleneck and low standards for cleanroom needs. There are something on the order of about 20 process steps from the finished Wafer to a finished product.

A/T has significant TPT (ThroughPut Time), where 2-3 weeks is typical even today. This serves planning well to be in close proximity to point of need at the Tesla factory for JIT production. Plus, I can't see Samsung shipping wafers back to China, then to Tx again. The irony is that it's normally FABs in the US, and A/T overseas for labor savings. But TPT suffers a lot in this scenario, so no bueno. I think this is what's biting Intel now, and also bet A/T could be done in a week or less if wait or travel time is eliminate.

Spoiler: A Shopping bag of Wafers?

Hand carrying wafers on a plane, in a basic shopping bag as inconspicuous as possible, is exactly what Intel has done on Hot Lots. I met someone doing this on a plane from to/from Penang Malaysia once, which is how I know this trick. A bag of wafers can translate 10K in chips, easily. Maybe not Tesla's being slightly larger no doubt.

Is Samsung really putting all the supporting industry/steps in the Texas facility, or will the wafers circumnavigate the globe twice anyway like it's currently done for most products in the industry?
I think even TSMC sends some of their completed wafers to Malaysia or Indonesia for final processing.

 

[ZeApelido]

Monterrey is thus another case of Tesla preparing to solve problems that might otherwise be prohibitive. I've worked in Monterrey,

Of course you have.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is Samsung really putting all the supporting industry/steps in the Texas facility, or will the wafers circumnavigate the globe twice anyway like it's currently done for most products in the industry?
I think even TSMC sends some of their completed wafers to Malaysia or Indonesia for final processing.

That's my question, but yes I do think it's possible it all goes in Tx with zero travel time - it's a total waste to ship around the globe twice. Foundries could be used, but this is bleeding edge IA too. The thought came up because it takes so darn long to build a FAB so maybe A/T comes first?

It made sense when I bounced it off the wife (Master Planner in A/T). All my pure speculation so we're clear. It's 1st principle though, these won't be cheap memory chips. The way we've seen Tesla control it's demand and volume would strongly suggest the shortest lead-times to respond quickly to any demand cycle. Although cost is also important, so we'll see.

 

[1101011]

Man, I'm seeing Teslas everywhere now days. Saw some MYs in 3 TV shows this weekend, 2 S's in movies, and now twice this morning in the news and not Tesla related! They're becoming the norm not an outlier anymore.

Can't wait to see CyberTrucks and Semis in background shots in a few years.

The times they are a changing my friends!

On our long distance trips we used to count the number of Teslas we spotted. No longer noteworthy. But this last week, in Indiana we had a new experience. While driving FSD (speed limit + 5) we were passed by a Tesla!

The times they are a changing...

 

[wipster]

Toyota exec calls Tesla Model Y a "work of art" after teardown

Toyota has been a laggard when it comes to embracing the electric revolution, but the Japanese automaker has realized just how far behind they are after performing a teardown of the best selling electric vehicle, […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Ogre]

It's crazy to think that one single manufacturing plant of Tesla (Fremont) produced almost as many units for the US market as all EV facilities of all other automakers in the US combined.

PS: It’s their least efficient factory too.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The new platform to be revealed tomorrow might improve on this though.

Said as if fact... is this the free box in Tesla Bingo? (I cannot keep up, lol).

 

[willow_hiller]

Said as if fact... is this the free box in Tesla Bingo? (I cannot keep up, lol).

3rd generation platform was one of the confirmed topics from the original press release: Tesla Announces Date for 2023 Investor Day | Tesla Investor Relations

"Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform, capital allocation and other subjects with our leadership team."

 

[shrspeedblade]

Ok, I just did something I haven't done since probably 2019 and rage bought a share when it dipped back down, absent macro. Probably some of the biggest announcements in company history tomorrow.

Yes, it's insignificant in the grand scheme of things, but it was back in 2018/19 as well when I just got downright pissed by all the antics of the shorts. I'm content with my current Tesla position, and if anything have been trying to diversify over the last 2 years.

The monkey is rage buying again, certainly not the wisest investment advice to follow. If it dips AFTER tomorrow I'll certainly pick up some more.

I throw darts at dart boards too, BTW.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Toyota exec calls Tesla Model Y a "work of art" after teardown

Toyota has been a laggard when it comes to embracing the electric revolution, but the Japanese automaker has realized just how far behind they are after performing a teardown of the best selling electric vehicle, […]

driveteslacanada.ca

My favorite part (almost no part).

"Even small things such as the powertrain cooling hose surprised Toyota, which Tesla shrunk from 3.5mm to 1.5mm while at the same time using a cheaper material to produce them."

(Edit: Yes this is likely wall thickness as pointed out. It was a cut and paste though)

(I was going to post this, but got to talking about Chuck Berry with someone here. )

 

[TrendTrader007]

You think weather patterns in Iceland are unconnected with those of other locations or ocean currents, or even glacier conditions irrelevant? Ignorance is a powerful disincentive to understanding, is it not? Charts without context are similar to opinions without understanding, aren't they?

no idea what you said
explain to me your point in simple terms that i can understand
what about Iceland?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Secret to being an amazing investor: arcane erudition mixed with a healthy dose of pedantic esotericism and a dash of solipsism
magic secret sauce
works like a charm
every single time

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not updated like it says. This is exactly the same as the 7:57 AM version. Classic BS, hiding all their cards.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Of course you have.

I had some Monterey Jack once...

... Cheese!

 

[DarthPierce]

Of course you have.

I have to say I already had this image in my mind for this poster. Spot on.

 

[Ogre]

Sounds like Elon is going to re-building "open AI" from the ground up. Perhaps this time make sure it is OPEN and unbiased, and maintain control of the investment this time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630610998460555264

I wonder if that is what Elon mean when he said he will reveal something during Investor Day for all of humanity? Good use for dojo?

Edit: Youtube on this topic

I seriously doubt Musk will fill up Tesla Investor Day discussing CharGPT or Twitter (and hope he doesn’t).

I’m largely ambivalent on Musk being involved in either topic and neither has to do with actual Tesla performance directly (Arguably indirectly, but it’s distant).

Does not belong discussed at a TESLA Investor Day. Plenty for Musk to discuss that can affect all humanity that relates directly to Tesla. Their mission affects all of humanity.