If I'm a competing automaker (think Toyota) my reaction after the presentation is I'm much further behind Tesla than I realized.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Did you watch the presentation?
Legacy auto also make parts changes during any given year's production run. I've had to use my VIN to verify parts like this for ICEVs I've owned in the past.
They can add more lines to an existing 4680 factory, and build new factories.
The important caveat is that the output of a line in terms of usable cells needs to justify the capex.
4680 production is somewhere between original Roaster and 2012 Model S, decades of improvements to come.
For now I would guess that the IRA helps with some early production teething problems and also that down the track with production fully ramped and all of the kinks ironed out any investment now will be fully justified.
If yield is sub-par, then some additional cost to recycle the raw materials, and some materials lost in the process, plus the cost to manufacture the sub-par cells. When yield improves costs go down.
larmor
Active Member
Excerpt from article: Tesla's next-gen vehicle allows a 40% reduction in manufacturing footprint in the factory and a 50% reduction in cost, the company said.
I suspect that often the improved newer part can be used instead.
If the design of a module containing many parts changes, or the size of a part changes, then there is no forward compatibility..
Should that happen the options are:- 1) keep a stock of the old parts or 2) change the whole module.
For legacy auto this issue also happens by model year, apart form the initial lookup to determine which part is required, the process is the same.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
It would be interesting to consider having a conversation with your car like a human, give it a personality... Shades of SciFi. My commute would be interesting if I could talk philosophy and history with 'Max'...
(Yes, that's what my wife named our Model X) The 90's talking cars bombed out because they were freaking annoying ("your door is ajar, your door is a jar; fasten your seatbelt" - my dad quickly sold that nag...)
How impressive is it if it's entirely CGI, though? Doesn't look very real at all to me.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
Maybe mine will - I'm like 1.5 millionth in line... (I finally convinced my wife that it was acceptable by saying she didn't ever have to drive it... Hopefully they ramp up real fast).
powertoold
Active Member
I know the robot demo was staged, but there's a part in the video where the bot seemingly missed and then repositioned and retried:
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
But that requires tinkering with the guts of the car's HV system and possibly voiding one's warranty. Using your car as an electricity source would only be to provide backup during short term power failures. A treadmill design would even work with any vehicle including motorcycles. I'm not a proponent of this concept. I was just wondering about efficiency.
I’m stunned by the obliviousness by many to todays presentation which contained some great new info.
For all those that were still expecting the next generation vehicle to actually be unveiled - shame on you. It was explained on numerous occasions by many people why that would be a terrible idea to do so far out from start of production (Osborne, osborne & osborne).
We got a giant amount of information on the next generation platform, including an announcement of a new factory in Mexico dedicated to it.
Nearly every presentation segment included a history of how they lowered costs over previous generations, and how they intend to lower cost again for “the next generation”. All those previews of future iterations of factories, powertrains, supply chains, cells etc - They were all parts of the next generation vehicle platform. Drew them summed up the economics of the next generation platform in his “financials“ segment at the end - including the very interesting “Total Cost of ownership” slide which I imagine one can back out to arrive at the ballpark retail price for the future product.
We also got a valuable update on the 4680 ramp during the Q&A: They are hitting their goals of increasing weekly pack production by 1k units every quarter. (Eg. 1k a week per quarter, followed by 2k per week the next quarter, followed by 3k per week the next quarter etc)
Also great to see the economics of the Charging network, and how big an advantage they have over competing charging networks - which to me now looks like it will play out much like the Apple App Store - a service initially designed to run not much above break even in support of a hardware product, but eventually becoming a huge profit centre in its own right.
There were numerous juicy tidbits all through the presentation and Q&A - I intend on rewatching it all, hopefully once someone has done a one hour supercut ha ha.
For all those that were still expecting the next generation vehicle to actually be unveiled - shame on you. It was explained on numerous occasions by many people why that would be a terrible idea to do so far out from start of production (Osborne, osborne & osborne).
We got a giant amount of information on the next generation platform, including an announcement of a new factory in Mexico dedicated to it.
Nearly every presentation segment included a history of how they lowered costs over previous generations, and how they intend to lower cost again for “the next generation”. All those previews of future iterations of factories, powertrains, supply chains, cells etc - They were all parts of the next generation vehicle platform. Drew them summed up the economics of the next generation platform in his “financials“ segment at the end - including the very interesting “Total Cost of ownership” slide which I imagine one can back out to arrive at the ballpark retail price for the future product.
We also got a valuable update on the 4680 ramp during the Q&A: They are hitting their goals of increasing weekly pack production by 1k units every quarter. (Eg. 1k a week per quarter, followed by 2k per week the next quarter, followed by 3k per week the next quarter etc)
Also great to see the economics of the Charging network, and how big an advantage they have over competing charging networks - which to me now looks like it will play out much like the Apple App Store - a service initially designed to run not much above break even in support of a hardware product, but eventually becoming a huge profit centre in its own right.
There were numerous juicy tidbits all through the presentation and Q&A - I intend on rewatching it all, hopefully once someone has done a one hour supercut ha ha.
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The $25k car will not be announced until it is nearly production ready. It will cut demand for other Tesla products. People "Tesla stretch" now, a would be Prius owner spends $10k more than budget to get a Tesla. Those buyers will get the $25k car. Tesla will not be able to keep it a total secret... but we probably won't see the look and price until 3 months before if Tesla is masterful. The disruption could make a lower quarter or two. Announcing it now would be very bad.
Investor Day was about showcasing the amazing management talent, dedication and work ethic Tesla has at the helm. It also made clear what a vibrant and diverse workforce it has in it's factories. I can't believe there is a better managed manufacturing company in any industry, anywhere in the world. Am I wrong?
I was impressed when they discussed venturing into chemicals processing, and that they will prove some new methods and then share them with their providers to better the world's supply of battery materials. Any other company, All other companies would have referred to future revenue stream they would gain by licensing their process.
I came away with a few informative tidbits, but the real take away is how determined the company is to pursue it's mission. A real pleasure to spend a few hours with every individual on that stage.
I think it was an immensely successful presentation.
I was impressed when they discussed venturing into chemicals processing, and that they will prove some new methods and then share them with their providers to better the world's supply of battery materials. Any other company, All other companies would have referred to future revenue stream they would gain by licensing their process.
I came away with a few informative tidbits, but the real take away is how determined the company is to pursue it's mission. A real pleasure to spend a few hours with every individual on that stage.
I think it was an immensely successful presentation.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The same dynamic I saw between Elon and Drew on Battery day in 2019 played out tonight when the question of V2H came up. Drew said yes, in the next 2 years; while Elon is clearly not enthusiastic.
I think Elon is 100% wrong here, so I'm glad he has senior leads who are pushing the V2H agenda forward. To me it is obvious that people will charge the car at work, discharge some of the energy into the home or grid when they get home, and use the grid when disconnected. The EV fleet is a *massive* storage battery asset and currently unexploited value
I think Elon is 100% wrong here, so I'm glad he has senior leads who are pushing the V2H agenda forward. To me it is obvious that people will charge the car at work, discharge some of the energy into the home or grid when they get home, and use the grid when disconnected. The EV fleet is a *massive* storage battery asset and currently unexploited value
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I would bet a steak dinner that even when it is announced closer to production start, that it will be a high priced variants that are available first - the low end cheaper version will be much further away.
I believe what Elon meant was Tesla doesn't need to have more than 7 or 8 models at any one time... never said they have to be the same models that will be offered currently.
Let that sink in.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
It was also clear that everyone involved is very proud of their work at Tesla, and support the Mission. They know their stuff, even if some of them are terrible public speakers; I appreciated the size of the team involved, too - it goes to show that Elon is very willing to share the spotlight, and if Musk gets sick/too busy/assassinated Tesla is still in very good hands.
lafrisbee
Active Member
I have Etrade. All I had to do was ask. AND it is even in my Roth IRA. All the guy made sure of was that I knew to be careful.
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