Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paul_SF]

That’s all you need to know. LFG!!!

 

[Tony73]

Unless you need to drive somewhere when you’ve just had a blackout. While cool and certainly helpful at times, I think Elon sees the relative inefficiency of V2G as *the* solution when more purpose-built solutions exist and are better. It’s kludgy to want to use the car for this. But I also see that if it’s all you have, it’s better than nothing. I think I would prefer to keep the car as a stand-alone backup. Cybertruck will fit that bill (when I add CyberLandr) and I just added the RPM trunk refrigerator to my MY.

Unless it’s coupled with solar, a PW is not a very useful backup if the outage lasts more than a couple of days. A typical EV has as much capacity as 5 to 7 power walls and in a pinch a user has the option to go load on juice at a charging station and bring it back home.
There are plenty of car buyers who will find V2G an attractive feature especially if they are going to be buying an EV regardless. It’s basically a free benefit. A PW is an added cost

 

[wipster]

Yes - very location dependent. In the PNW ... the idea is not all that "hot". I mean ... few even have AC here !

Speak for yourself! A large part of the population lives on the East side of the Cascades! And a lot of us have heat pumps (albeit not Tesla... yet).

 

[JRP3]

How impressive is it if it's entirely CGI, though? Doesn't look very real at all to me.

Looked real to me.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I know the robot demo was staged, but there's a part in the video where the bot seemingly missed and then repositioned and retried:

View attachment 912828

Oh very cool especially if it knew it missed. But was that a guide it was using to keep on axis?

 

[jerry33]

Unless you need to drive somewhere when you’ve just had a blackout.

No, because there is a Powerwall as the primary backup. The vehicle is just for recharging the Ppwerwall.

 

[lafrisbee]

Ok First the thing I have not seen stated yet.
The $25k car is pretty much done. How do I know? The way they answered the query about it.
"We won't tell you until a reveal." They could have said, it ain't far enough along to give any info. But they aren't trained in deception.

Second, a 40-50% reduction in cost gives you the Model 3. So why not? just an upgraded design of Model 3 built in a factory that reduces the cost. It is certainly going to have quite a bit of the model 3 in it. Take a little off the front, a little off the back, reduce the battery pack..bingo bango... Model 3 jr.

 

[lafrisbee]

V2H... Elon got it wrong... "When you leave the house the lights go off, your wife ain't gonna be happy." She'll be happy as she can be because she is in the car with you. And if it is night where the hell are you going if the electricity is out? And she may not be happy when you ain't there, but she's gonna be a lot happier than if she had zero electricity all the time.
My imagination has me using V2G two ways. I live in Florida 700m from the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricanes knock the electricity off line once every three years for about 4 days. V2G is worth a few grand to me as a back-up. The second would be for a cabin up in Alabama way back off the road. Running a line to it would several thousand dollars, and the line would not be safe from storms or crackhead metal scrapers. It'd be so nice to build a cabin where I wanted, and drive up, plug the truck's battery up to it and have power for a few days.
So easily I'd pay $10k for it.
But even if it doesn't happen as long as I can just run a small AC unit from the 110 outlet I am going to be happy.

 

[Xepa777]

Ok First the thing I have not seen stated yet.
The $25k car is pretty much done. How do I know? The way they answered the query about it.
"We won't tell you until a reveal." They could have said, it ain't far enough along to give any info. But they aren't trained in deception.

Second, a 40-50% reduction in cost gives you the Model 3. So why not? just an upgraded design of Model 3 built in a factory that reduces the cost. It is certainly going to have quite a bit of the model 3 in it. Take a little off the front, a little off the back, reduce the battery pack..bingo bango... Model 3 jr.

…or maybe you have rose pedaled glasses on. “Aren’t trained in deception”? Are you serious?

I’ll point out one obvious lie. “We reduce costs while improving quality.” That’s not what taking out the motorized lumbar support feature is on the passenger side seat. “The data says people don’t use it” my ass. Then why does the cubertruck today show that on passenger side.

This is class A delusion right here.

Forget the model 2, the dry electrode process hasn’t even hit their original goals, otherwise they wouldn’t have danced around it with “always trying to be better.” No. It’s behind. That’s why Elon admitted to going with the backup plan for 2170 in giga Texas and why those factories haven’t ramped to where we all were expecting by now. Full stop.

The model 2 probably does still have challenges to get the math to work which is why it hasn’t been revealed. That’s fine, but it means Tesla ain’t gonna be hitting 50% YoY growth this year or next. Lucky if 40% with 20% margin honestly. Still great numbers though.

 

[wipster]

Legacy auto also make parts changes during any given year's production run. I've had to use my VIN to verify parts like this for ICEVs I've owned in the past.

https://www.partsgeek.com/catalog/2022/tesla/y/driveshaft_-ar-_axle/wheel_hub_assembly.html

As my first job was a counterman at an old school auto parts store (Bridge Pumps Auto Supply!) I can verify. GM specifically.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My wife is not a Tesla nerd. The impression she wanted to share was that presenters were somber. She might have even thought unhappy. "Bad vibe"
<<shrug>>

My takeaways were different. I thought the overarching message was that Tesla is dead serious about producing 20M vehicles a year by ~ 2030 in addition to a TWh of storage. Music to my ears. This is why I invested in Tesla, and if the stock price drops before it rises, so be it. Actually, I embrace it.

Second, a basic truth remains that battery production growth is the linchpin of it all. So I listened intently to Drew and heard 'we are improving production by 1,000 units a week every quarter." I took 'unit' to mean enough cells for one vehicle. My spreadsheet tells me that works out 2M vehicles run rate in 10 years --- no where close. In fact, if my math is correct, the growth rate of the growth rate has to be ~ 2.

Here is the spreadsheet. Please correct as needed. Doable ? I think so, but it is one hell of a challenge.

I thought he gave us a snapshot in time on the process with existing equipment. New equipment tends to double things.

Steady progress was his point. No way its linear forever. Ramps don't work that way when there’s strong demand. I fully expect a curve, even though fairly flat today. No worries.

 

[larmor]

Investor Day was about showcasing the amazing management talent, dedication and work ethic Tesla has at the helm. It also made clear what a vibrant and diverse workforce it has in it's factories. I can't believe there is a better managed manufacturing company in any industry, anywhere in the world. Am I wrong?
I was impressed when they discussed venturing into chemicals processing, and that they will prove some new methods and then share them with their providers to better the world's supply of battery materials. Any other company, All other companies would have referred to future revenue stream they would gain by licensing their process.
I came away with a few informative tidbits, but the real take away is how determined the company is to pursue it's mission. A real pleasure to spend a few hours with every individual on that stage.
I think it was an immensely successful presentation.

From an investment standpoint, tesla conveyed that they want to make cars more efficiently-- cheaper, and provide electricity for them. Design of cars shifted from ICE conversion to EV to maximizing production guiding design. High EQ for a company with its mission.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Looked real to me.

Watch carefully when the first robot unplugs the arm connector- that looks very artificial. The lighting also seems off. There may be bits of staging intermixed with the CGI, but I'm sure there is some CGI in there. We'll know soon enough, one way or the other.

 

[CyberDutchie]

perhaps, but I've known a bunch of calm speakers that couldn't motivate a staff or more importantly, a company because they were too bland.

I agree. While I was impressed with Zack and Tom and a few others, it was so obvious that intellectually and inspirationally, Elon stands far above all of them.

But then, he is the biggest mind walking on the planet today so not easy to replace him.

 

[wipster]

It would be interesting to consider having a conversation with your car like a human, give it a personality... Shades of SciFi. My commute would be interesting if I could talk philosophy and history with 'Max'... (Yes, that's what my wife named our Model X)

The 90's talking cars bombed out because they were freaking annoying ("your door is ajar, your door is a jar; fasten your seatbelt" - my dad quickly sold that nag...)

Elon recently posted this on which is about having a conversation with your car (read the replies), so in effect he is supporting the concept, just not chatGPT specifically.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1630624962225553430

 

[SageBrush]

Steady progress was his point. No way its linear forever. Ramps don't work that way when there’s strong demand.

I was wondering about an 'S curve.'
Is dA/dt >> 0 ?

Because they are talking about dA/dt of about 2

 

[y_naught]

No, because there is a Powerwall as the primary backup. The vehicle is just for recharging the Ppwerwall.

Wait a minute…people touting V2G/V2H are saying it’s cheaper and more storage than a Powerwall, so they want it instead of paying up for permanent storage. So no, that is not the use case being discussed.

Again, in an emergency, yes, it would be useful. So would simply having a converter from the 12v out to 120v to power essential appliances (refrigerator). The notion of driving back and forth during a blackout to a working supercharger to keep your house going is about as practical as using your ICE car as a generator during an outage to power your house from the 12v plug and refueling at the gas station as needed.

V2G might be great in a rare emergency, but the right infrastructure is not there for general use and the right infrastructure is not to enable the car to be a primary backup source, but to have permanent stationary storage. With or without solar. I wouldn’t want to risk not being able to leave the area if necessary because I was running my fridge, TV or whatever instead.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

From now on, when there is a XYZ Day, I think the best course of action is to keep expectations as low as possible.

 

[Ogre]

Looked real to me.

I thought the robot demo looked real, but CGI has gotten so good anymore it’s hard to tell which the subjects are robots.

The number of robots, the hand operating by itself, the one without the arm all kind of felt like a cool CGI demo… but if they were doing straight CGI, it seems like they were a little too clumsy. If it was CGI it was artfully done. If it was real, it was pretty amazing for a project less than 3 years old.

 

[Ogre]

From now on, when there is a XYZ Day, I think the best course of action is to keep expectations as low as possible.

I said this exact thing Friday…