Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FireMedic]

I can buy a new 3 and Y this week in Chicago. That not infinite demand. It's a nice balance between production and current demand.

But 20 million cars with 10 models. Apparently no problemo. South America can absorb 18 million.

The model 3 is a great car, especially at the after tax credit price. But Musk has done so much damage to his reputation in the last two years that many people in the EV target market are not going to buy a Tesla. Plus many people are bored with the old styling. Fortunately I'm sure Franz has many style updates and model variants that can be applied as volume growth stagnates.

I rarely feel the need to explain a disagree; but in this case, I feel like I agree with the bulk of your post, so the disagree felt disingenuous and worthy of explanation.

I only take issue with one particular part of your statement that Elon‘s brand damage will affect sales of a low price EV in emerging markets.

First, I don’t think that factual, measurable brand damage has been done (despite the fact that I disagree with some of his recent political-based posturing).

But, more importantly, I feel like you haven’t considered in your post, that lower income car buyers will be less passionate about virtue, signaling or brand avoidance, and more focused on value.

Tesla, from what I see, wins on TCO on a like for like product. And if you can’t see a market for high efficiency low cost vehicles for developing nations, then I’m too far away from you on current reality to have a productive discussion.

 

[Electroman]

A Cybertruck with a 300+ range coming in 2024 at 50k

300+ miles range at $50K. Dream on.

Today we don’t have a 300 mile range Y at $50k, and there is no way a much bigger vehicle with a brand new design & tech with volumes that are going to be low initially will be priced at $50K.

$70K+ would be more realistic. Lets not overhype the specs and the cost

 

[jerry33]

The X is bigger on the inside with more rear storage right?

Yes. Especially the five seater because there is extra storage where the third row would be attached.

 

[Singuy]

I watched a bit of his YouTube interview with the robotics expert and honestly wasn't that impressed. The Tesla Club Sweden poll is still about 2/3 in favor of CGI/animation. The background is the most fake looking aspect of the video to me. I'd be interested to hear Mr. Know it all's opinion if the bots could have been performing in front of a green screen.

Lol you can't say on one hand people are not impressed and on another hand thought it was CGI.

 

[SarahsDad]

No they’re correct./s My BEv and those of three others on my block, a Taycan just delivered this week for example. After all I must not live in Brazil.OMG, just chalked my address. It’s in Brazil./s. Those who glance at data and say no market might check helicopters:

The Capital of São Paulo has the largest fleet of helicopters in the world - BisAviation Group

Did you know that the giant capital of São Paulo is also the champion in helicopter fleet in the world? Read more

bisaviation.com.br

There is a helipad just below my house in Rio busy every day.
.
Helicopters are not cars but helicopter owners have multiple cars and those SP operations are private. Police, military and government are additional.

These points are Brazil-specific but they are common world wide.

Just as Model S attracted many people who had never owned an expensive car, somyears earlier the Bentley Continental grew the >$100,000 car market by more than 100%.

Many people here, not just Troy, do not understand how a compelling product all by itself can transform markets that previously were thought to be tiny.

Examples: I name some but give no sources. Jusit search and discover the magic of compelling product:
Cessna Citation,
Apple Watch,
Lexus,
Robinson helicopter.
Three products, many more examples available.

The naysayers haven’t a clue what magic happens with compelling product. And price does play a role, just nit the one imagined…

Yeah those who think Latin America would be a Tesla wasteland likely haven't spent much (or any) time there. I've had some of my most extravagant meals in Mexico City, Lima, Santiago, and Valparaíso. And Sao Paulo, Rio, and Buenos Aires are all world class cities. 5 of the top 11 restaurants in the world are located in these regions.

The World’s 50 Best Restaurants | The List and Awards.

So while the average per capita income is lower, there is plenty of wealth in my opinion to soak up many thousands to millions of Tesla vehicles

 

[SmokyPeat]

Lol you can't say on one hand people are not impressed and on another hand thought it was CGI.

? I have no idea what you're trying to say.

 

[Bouboule]

As I would imagine there are many institution that gets Tesla story, we just dont hear about them since they are not in the spot light.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631772246166614016

Yes and…

To this date, Tesla had to convince institutions and wallstreet to invest into Tsla. Now the focus is switching. Tesla needs to convince Institutions and wallstreet to invest in Infrastructure, supply chain and electrification of large companies

This investor day was probably meant to inspire confidence to institutional investors that Tesla has the ressources and vision to complete the extremely large and long term projects they will undertake.

I love being a Tesla and a TSLA owner. Institutions/wallstreet will love it too.

 

[Singuy]

? I have no idea what you're trying to say.

Are you trying to say the CGI is unimpressive to robotic engineers?

 

[electracity]

It's crazy how the Tesla community went overboard with this especially when the master plan presentation talks about the next gen car being painted separately which reduces paint. In that context, Tom didn't say anything new because paint is expensive, hence why they are reducing paint usage. It is NOT a silver stainless car.

It's the desire for something new. According to S&P GM research Tesla owners who rebuy the brand do so in less than three years on average, which is by far an industry low.

Tesla buyers are the last group buying vehicles intending to drive a million miles. They want the latest and greatest. That's good because it pushes lower priced EVs to the used market. It's also a personality characteristics that makes so many on TMC interested in other brands. Not enough new vehicles from Tesla. If you are not a potential CT buyers it's snoozeville. Most long time Tesla owners aren't next gen buyers.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Yeah those who think Latin America would be a Tesla wasteland likely haven't spent much (or any) time there. I've had some of my most extravagant meals in Mexico City, Lima, Santiago, and Valparaíso. And Sao Paulo, Rio, and Buenos Aires are all world class cities. 5 of the top 11 restaurants in the world are located in these regions.

The World’s 50 Best Restaurants | The List and Awards.

So while the average per capita income is lower, there is plenty of wealth in my opinion to soak up many thousands to millions of Tesla vehicles

Absolutely correct imho. I recently spent 2 weeks in Quito. Ecuador is a country with numerous economic problems, however, there are economically vibrant areas throughout the city and we visited several spectacular restaurants (not extravagant). Having also lived in Cairo and Karachi, as well as Tokyo and Montreal, I’d say this is a worldwide phenomenon that varies country by country only in degree.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Are you trying to say the CGI is unimpressive to robotic engineers?

No, I'm saying I wasn't that impressed by the conversation Dr. Know it all had with his robotics friend on YouTube. I found what I believe to be at least partially computer generated images of Optimus fairly impressive. The short bit in the video where the "shoulder" is drawn together by tightening the nut does look real to my eye. Why was the lighting so poor? Clearly a very large percentage of people think it's real. And it can't all be confirmation bias, because quite a decent percentage of Tesla haters think it's real too. It's all very interesting to me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Not gonna cry over it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

NACS has a 1000 volt version. Assuming sufficient HV to Ground isolation, a Vx cabinet can stack AC to DC modules to double the output voltage.
Paired with a Megapack, the cabinet output is closer to 1 MW.

View attachment 914068

The issue isn’t what a new SC design could do, the issue is how a 1000V architecture vehicle would charge at a 500V SC. personally, I favor doing the opposite of what GM did (which is always a good idea). Pack has two halves that can be run in series for 1000V, or in parallel only for charging at 500V.

 

[betstarship]

Amazing

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632126472520605696

 

[Singuy]

It's the desire for something new. According to S&P GM research Tesla owners who rebuy the brand do so in less than three years on average, which is by far an industry low.

Tesla buyers are the last group buying vehicles intending to drive a million miles. They want the latest and greatest. That's good because it pushes lower priced EVs to the used market. It's also a personality characteristics that makes so many on TMC interested in other brands. Not enough new vehicles from Tesla. If you are not a potential CT buyers it's snoozeville. Most long time Tesla owners aren't next gen buyers.

You must have skipped the part in the study where a Tesla owner has the highest tendency to buy their next car to be a Tesla, and also having a second car in their garage to be a Tesla. The percentage shown there is WAY above industry average.

Also I wonder why Tesla owners would want to rebuy their cars if it's constantly updated? However those who gets into car crashes in a Tesla do intend to replace it with another Tesla.

So yes, Tesla owners DO crave for something new, that is the demographic. However Tesla is the only brand that give their owners something new multiple times yearly while they sleep at night. This is something other OEMs are lacking. Owners understand that going to another brand may have a newer interior or look, but there's a high chance of them never or rarely being updated. So far we haven't seen many NEW features being added via software update to OEM cars. Their updates are mainly bug fixes or trying to keep promised features working to as promised.

 

[Cosmacelf]

A lot of people assume Mexico production will go to the US. Troy Teslike is spewing this as well.

But here’s a weird thought.

Is Giga Texas going to have room for an Gen 3 line after the Cybertruck production starts? Model Y production is less than half of the factory. Cybertruck production is likely smaller than the Model Y production (no paint plus that 33% space efficiency thing they talked about). Is there enough room in GigaTexas for a Gen 3 line?

I think there is.

People are missing the likelihood that Monterrey GF will also be used to manufacture low cost parts for the rest of Tesla. Remember the 5,000 unique suppliers to manufacture a car? Tesla will knock that number way down by having a lot of those parts made in Mexico. Not all, of course, but many.

 

[2daMoon]

People are missing the likelihood that Monterrey GF will also be used to manufacture low cost parts for the rest of Tesla. Remember the 5,000 unique suppliers to manufacture a car? Tesla will knock that number way down by having a lot of those parts made in Mexico. Not all, of course, but many.

There is good reason that Mexico gave Tesla its own lane at the border crossing.

 

[Singuy]

No, I'm saying I wasn't that impressed by the conversation Dr. Know it all had with his robotics friend on YouTube. I found what I believe to be at least partially computer generated images of Optimus fairly impressive. The short bit in the video where the "shoulder" is drawn together by tightening the nut does look real to my eye. Why was the lighting so poor? Clearly a very large percentage of people think it's real. And it can't all be confirmation bias, because quite a decent percentage of Tesla haters think it's real too. It's all very interesting to me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Not gonna cry over it.

Dr. Know and his robotic expert pointed how the limitations of the demo, which they would have found putting in the bolt to be more impressive in which Tesla made the cut. So if it was CGI, you think Tesla would make it more impressive if they are going to lie about it anyways. However why they try to hide the limitations of optimus in a CGI demo is beyond me and all those who believes it's CGI.

 

[Singuy]

According to drone fly over, Lucid have paused production most likely due to too much inventory on their lot. According to their earnings report, they have over 800M dollars worth of inventory, which supersede their quarterly revenue by almost 3X.

 

[Cosmacelf]

According to drone fly over, Lucid have paused production due to too much inventory on their lot.

If true, I’m not surprised. Their cars are way too expensive and they don’t have a brand. You can’t waltz in with Porsche pricing without being Porsche.

 

[mongo]

The issue isn’t what a new SC design could do, the issue is how a 1000V architecture vehicle would charge at a 500V SC. personally, I favor doing the opposite of what GM did (which is always a safe bet). Pack has two halves that can be run in series for 1000V, or in parallel only for charging at 500V.

Ah, I misgrouped "current design" with "NACS" instead of V3 SC.

Agree, it would be possible for Tesla to split the pack to drop voltage, but it requires extra parts on every vehicle (extra pyro fuse, three contactors). It would be lower cost and more efficient to add those parts to the SC instead and let off brand 400V charge rates suffer by using the existing on board charger.

Tesla is already charging semi using (what look to be) V3 cabinets so it may be as simple as series connecting pairs of cabinet outputs.