Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Core PPI came in well below expected at just 4.4%

Mar 15, 2023:​

Actual 4.4%​

Forecast 5.2%​

Previous 5.4%​

Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2023 M02 Results | BLS.gov

This is a good report because at 4.75% the FED interest rate is already above this measure of inflation. I think a FED pause is now more likely than before this morning's PPI report.

Fed should pause here, says economist Mark Zandi | CNBC Television

 

[unk45]

Yeah, I think it’s going to be hard to compete in the future with a solution that gives all the profits to your suppliers.

We probably all now realize that auto manufacturing since the advent of li-ion batteries and modern technology bears minimal relationship to building the cars of the previous 120 years.

 

[unk45]

Saudi's jerked the rug out from under Credit Suisse this morning:

Credit Suisse shares slide 24%, trading halted after Saudi backer rules out further assistance | CNBC.com

Since this is directly related to Saudi refusal to raise their investment we are quite likely to have more question about several classes of investors. That 'skittishness' will perforce extend to BEV and Lucid, for sure, but probably others too. Maybe not TSLA but now is a bad time to gamble on anything.

 

[Drax7]

Since this is directly related to Saudi refusal to raise their investment we are quite likely to have more question about several classes of investors. That 'skittishness' will perforce extend to BEV and Lucid, for sure, but probably others too. Maybe not TSLA but now is a bad time to gamble on anything.

“Maybe not tesla” ?
Implying saudi investment in tesla, are you serious ?

 

[Krugerrand]

“Maybe not tesla” ?
Implying saudi investment in tesla, are you serious ?

No, that’s not what he meant. Maybe not Tesla was referencing skittishness extending to Lucid and other BEV companies- but maybe not Tesla.

As we know it’s the Saudis who have been injecting capital into Lucid, thus their reluctance to support Credit Suisse may likely extend to other of their ventures like Lucid. And since Lucid is on shaky ground and Rivian etc… skittishness may extend to more BEV companies - but maybe not Tesla because of all the reasons we already know.

That’s what he meant.

 

[T@oo]

Saudis made record profits selling liquid cancer. Time to stir up some trouble, pull some rugs and seed some FUD. So they can buy even more for their hard earned money.

 

[scaesare]

The larger issue is the cost of replacement for high wear components on Robotaxis: (ie: tires)

Tesla Tire Costs 10× Battery Cost, & My Plan To Deflate Tire Costs 90% | Teslarati (Oct 03, 2020)

The context of this discussion is what components Tesla builds themselves, rather than obtains from a vendor. Ironically it stems from your reply to @bkp_duke...

Nobody was addressing cost, although I'd argue that by vertically integrating Tesla is able to manage component costs directly....

 

[TrendTrader007]

Either this is a giant cup with handle (bullish)
or

I need new reading glasses

 

[bkp_duke]

Pre-market dropping like a rock again because of banking woes, this time Credit Suisse. Why can't these bankers get their acts together? Too much focussed on short-term bonusses, I guess.

Dow ends down 280 points after Credit Suisse woes reignite bank-sector angst

U.S. stocks ended mostly lower Wednesday, but well off the session's worst levels, after concerns over the health of Credit Suisse sparked renewed...

www.marketwatch.com

Nothing to do with Tesla, but the market doesn't care.

View attachment 917842

These banks can't even keep their own houses in order . . . yet somehow we are supposed to trust their analysts when it comes to Tesla.

Yeah . . . right.

 

[ZeApelido]

While the absolute numbers may be biased, the sentiment change in 1.5 years is amazing.

Source: TrueCar

 

[JusRelax]

These banks can't even keep their own houses in order . . . yet somehow we are supposed to trust their analysts when it comes to Tesla.

Yeah . . . right.

Wow, first time I've seen this.... (/s)

 

[Singuy]

While the absolute numbers may be biased, the sentiment change in 1.5 years is amazing.

View attachment 917864


Source: TrueCar

Well due to Tsla's stock rise, legacy auto believes that if they also position themselves as EV makers, they too will have hundreds of billions in valuation. So even though their production and sales suggest that EV revenue doesn't even pay for their corporate taxes, they are all advertising the CRAP out of the few EV models they have. Every commercial is about EVs, their show rooms are now purposely built to show case their EV. We even see a Toyota EV in the middle of a hockey game on the ICE! It certainly gives people the impression that ICE is old and will be replaced and people need to buy an EV to future proof. It's kind of hilarious that all these auto are just pushing sales of....Teslas so hard...lol.

 

[scaesare]

Not directly. The first thing I recall was the 2020 announcement of a specific high performance Elect tire for the Porsche Taycan:

Pirelli Designs A Specific Tire For The Porsche Taycan

The Pirelli Elect tire series finds its way to the Porsche Taycan.

www.torquenews.com

Shortly after that came tge HL for Lucid:

Pirelli launches new 'High-Load' tire for EVs, and Lucid is first in line to try

Italian tire maker Pirelli is launching its new “high load” tire specific for Hybrid and all-electric vehicles and SUVs. The high load tire will sport an “HL” marking on its sidewall as an indicator that it will have the ability to handle more weight, a necessity for electric cars due to their...

www.teslarati.com

There was a similar Tesla announcement for the Plaid , I was very happy to have those on my Plaid S with 19” wheels in 2021. There is an identical set on eBay right now:

Factory Tesla Model S PLAID Wheels Pirelli Tires Set 4 Genuine OEM Tempest 2022 | eBay

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for Factory Tesla Model S PLAID Wheels Pirelli Tires Set 4 Genuine OEM Tempest 2022 at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!

www.ebay.com

I cannot find that original Tesla/Pirelli statement which implied but did not explicitly state, IIRC, that Tesla worked with Pirelli on the compounds. The Lucid announcement for the HL is the closest one I recall.
Sorry, I am in the same situation as are you.

Best I can manage to find is my own post from a couple years back that had a link (now dead) to Tesla hiring tire engineers...

 

[UncaNed]

Since this is directly related to Saudi refusal to raise their investment we are quite likely to have more question about several classes of investors. That 'skittishness' will perforce extend to BEV and Lucid, for sure, but probably others too. Maybe not TSLA but now is a bad time to gamble on anything.

Just as Germany kept buying Russia oil, apparently others are entwined with the Saudis... What's that thing some say about if you pick up a snake you'll get bit...???

(Actually, I'm rather fond of snakes, but I hold them at a respectful arms length).

Wow, first time I've seen this.... (/s)

View attachment 917866

Well if that don't beat all! Gotta give em' credit for impartiality.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well due to Tsla's stock rise, legacy auto believes that if they also position themselves as EV makers, they too will have hundreds of billions in valuation. So even though their production and sales suggest that EV revenue doesn't even pay for their corporate taxes, they are all advertising the CRAP out of the few EV models they have. Every commercial is about EVs, their show rooms are now purposely built to show case their EV. We even see a Toyota EV in the middle of a hockey game on the ICE! It certainly gives people the impression that ICE is old and will be replaced and people need to buy an EV to future proof. It's kind of hilarious that all these auto are just pushing sales of....Teslas so hard...lol.

The most amusing bit is how BAD they are at advertising EVs as well. Take the Super Bowl commercials. Dodge decided to advertise their EV truck by talking about how much EV trucks suck. Then they filmed a Jeep and mentioned something vague about electric.

GM really wanted customers to know that EVs must be great if they were willing to pay Netflix to show them off.

Why? Well, I can't remember who but a few years ago I read someone call out Mary Bara on her commitment to EVs vs Elon. Elon drives an EV every single day. Mary drove around in an ICE Cadillac. (at least at the time) I'm sure legacy auto execs are all in the same position. They don't live EVs. If you don't live and breath EV, how the heck can you build and market them?

Want to sell EVs?

Spoiler

Show a mom going out into the garage to take her kids to school. "Tank" is full, car warmed itself automatically from the programmed schedule. Kids are sitting in the car waiting patiently watching Netflix while she finishes making her coffee. Make sure to include a scene where she unplugs her phone, and then show her unplugging her car. Make that connection.

Then show a man, a hard working man leaving work. It's a hot day and he is sweaty and tired. Show him take out his phone before leaving the jobsite and turning the AC on. He get's to the car and it's ice cold in there so he breathes a sigh of relief. Then he is on the highway and throws lane keeping on and you see him melt into the chair and whistle along with his favorite song while the camera zooms out and shows rush hour traffic, he doesn't care so much anymore.

 

[GhostSkater]

Thanks for this, good thread. I encourage you to also post your analysis here at TMC.

Early sample Tesla 4680 cells have no silicon in the anode. This puts them at an energy density disadvantage vs. Panasonic 2170s currently produced at Giga Nevada. I look for Tesla to update 4680 anode chemistry when Cybertruck goes into production in Texas. Increase in energy density w. silicon anode could be up to 25%: (this allows for a 188KWh pack in the volume of a 150KWh pack w/o silicon)

https://www.powerelectronicsnews.com/silicon-based-anode-for-ev-batteries-ramps-up-energy-density-by-25/

Then we have to figure in Cybertruck's superior aerodynamics. It's Cd is 0.39 vs 0.59 for an F150 Raptor:

Here’s how the Cybertruck’s aerodynamics compare to regular trucks

One thing that Elon Musk emphasized about the Cybertruck during its unveil is that its design is about more than just aesthetics. We already know the thick, angular steel plates makes for a stronger frame and theoretically lower build cost,

thenextweb.com

View attachment 917748



Using an online calculator, given 7,000 lbs weight, 35" diameter tires, Cd of 0.39 and 31.5 sq.ft frontal area (same as Ford F-150 Lightning) we get an estimated 0.362 KWh/mi energy consumption at 60 mph:

Wheels Vehicle Simulation - Cybertruck | virtual-car.org​

This result implies ~180 KWh energy required to drive 500 miles on the highway at 60 mph, or ~96% of a hypothetical Si-anode battery pack. Such a pack will be able to charge @ 350KW from 10% to 85% adding 385 miles of range in about 24 min.

With silcon-doped anodes, these cells may have a max charge rate of 6C (nominally 100% in 10 min), thus they would be limited by v3 Supercharger output. However, these new cells would also be able to sustain max charge rate longer via tapering later/shallower.

TL;dr A 500-mile range Cybertruck is realistic w/o requiring a dual-layer battery pack when silicon anode material is used in 4680 production cells.

Will do in the future, and thanks for the discussion

But I disagree with your conclusion that is possible with a single layer

First, expecting them to simply add silicon and BOM, 25% energy improvement won't happen, you add Silicon slowly as you verify your process and cell life, the amount of Silicon that needs to be added for 25% energy/energy density improvement is way more than any in production cell, we will get there, but I doubt in one step, Drew said more than once that they can't go all in on everything present at battery day else the ramp would be even slower

Second, the ~143 kWh pack that could fit in a single layer is without anything else, cooling, cell spacing and so on, as I said, on the Model Y the effective cell usable area (ignoring the circle packing efficiency) is ~85%, so our single layer pack goes down to 121 kWh.
Fine, let's assume Tesla has a good process and can go all in on Silicon and adds 30% of it, which should give the cell a 20% energy boost (

)

Now our single layer pack is 146 kWh, 500 miles EPA on that is 292 Wh/mi, for comparison, Model X LR is around 284 Wh/mi. Even your 180 kWh pack requires a 368 Wh/mi, that would be 20% better than F150 and Rivian, sounds possible, but the point still stands, can't fit that in a single layer

Third, floor thickness, there is no reason for the floor to be that thick and in level with the door sill, if Tesla could make it thinner they would, that would mean the overall shape can be less tall, which means less drag, less batteries and cheaper to make

In the meanwhile, we wait for Sandy to tear one apart

 

[Unpilot]

The most amusing bit is how BAD they are at advertising EVs as well. Take the Super Bowl commercials. Dodge decided to advertise their EV truck by talking about how much EV trucks suck. Then they filmed a Jeep and mentioned something vague about electric.

GM really wanted customers to know that EVs must be great if they were willing to pay Netflix to show them off.

Why? Well, I can't remember who but a few years ago I read someone call out Mary Bara on her commitment to EVs vs Elon. Elon drives an EV every single day. Mary drove around in an ICE Cadillac. (at least at the time) I'm sure legacy auto execs are all in the same position. They don't live EVs. If you don't live and breath EV, how the heck can you build and market them?

Want to sell EVs?

Spoiler

Show a mom going out into the garage to take her kids to school. "Tank" is full, car warmed itself automatically from the programmed schedule. Kids are sitting in the car waiting patiently watching Netflix while she finishes making her coffee. Make sure to include a scene where she unplugs her phone, and then show her unplugging her car. Make that connection.

Then show a man, a hard working man leaving work. It's a hot day and he is sweaty and tired. Show him take out his phone before leaving the jobsite and turning the AC on. He get's to the car and it's ice cold in there so he breathes a sigh of relief. Then he is on the highway and throws lane keeping on and you see him melt into the chair and whistle along with his favorite song while the camera zooms out and shows rush hour traffic, he doesn't care so much anymore.

You assume they really WANT to sell EV's.

Not just posture and blow smoke.

The one CEO that wanted to change course (Diess) got fired for it.

 

[unk45]

“Maybe not tesla” ?
Implying saudi investment in tesla, are you serious ?

Please read. Implied nothing of the sort. With generalized concerns now, I suggested probably Tesla would be largely unaffected. That is all.

 

[unk45]

Best I can manage to find is my own post from a couple years back that had a link (now dead) to Tesla hiring tire engineers...

I remember that post!

 

[unk45]

These banks can't even keep their own houses in order . . . yet somehow we are supposed to trust their analysts when it comes to Tesla.

Yeah . . . right.

Wow, first time I've seen this.... (/s)

View attachment 917866

That happens. Many banks and auto companies too, headed for Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari, UAE support when they're in trouble or in need of a big chunk of capital. Nearly always they'll get it if the terms and conditions suit the investor/lender. They do tend to be reluctant when the petitioners come back for more. From Mercedes Benz to Lucid , Jared Kushner. In fact, Amazon to Zoom. We all remember that a Saudi institution was prepared to fund TSLA to go private, but shorts refused to believe that was real.

Analysts are an entirely different issue, much less linked to bank solvency issues. OTOH, those who believe bankers on valuation issues probably have never had the dubious honor of participating in bank audits.

I recall the CEO of the then world's largest banks saying "countries don't go broke". That was Walter Wriston:
Walter Wriston, Citibank, and the Rise and Fall of American Financial Supremacy, Phillip L. Zweig (New York: Crown Publishers, 1995).

Reading of him can remind us of the glories and pitfalls of implicit faith in institutions.