This weekend I went to my local barber, a self-identified "petrol head". Likes loud engines and motorcycles because they go vroom.
He doesn't know I drive a Tesla (I don't share too much when I can avoid it), and we got talking about the topic of the transition to BEV's.
His opinion was that the transition will "never happen". I asked why he thought so and the reply was "the purchase price of BEV's is not coming down like they intended to, and will never come down enough." (reason: can't scale batteries, rare materials etc etc)
I don't argue against a blank wall so I didn't explain Tesla's next generation platform to him. I will do so in a few years when they are actually driving around and are available for purchase.
Some people cannot extrapolate at all. They are truly fixed upon what exists now and how things happen now. These are the same people that thought personal computers would never find their way into everybody's homes, that mobile phones were forever a toy for the rich, and that smartphones were useless because of touchscreen and because everyone has internet on their PC at home.
Just wanted to share this observation since on TMC we generally overestimate the knowledge of the general public regarding BEV's/the transition/the collapse of ICE sales/ etcetera.
As long as BEV's don't make up for 50% of new car sales, a large group of people will not accept the fact that we will in fact transition to BEV's, never to return. With gasoline versus diesel versus liquid natural gas there has been a push/pull transition in the last few decades depending on what fuel is cheaper in certain countries/states and the resale value this brings to said vehicles. Only in the last five years has the value of diesel cars truly plummetted since now gasoline is seen as "better for the environment" than diesel.
Don't forget this when making investing decisions. To most people Tesla is merely a blip on the radar right now. A small company with novelty cars they don't want because "never heard of them".
This will change rapidly but we're not as close as many here think we are.
So even if we leave FSD out of the picture, the Tesla brand still has lots of room to grow. Again I'm imagining the next generation platform to be the biggest driver in getting Tesla from being seen as a "niche" car maker to an established car maker (in the eyes of the masses), like how right now Toyota or Volkswagen is perceived.
I stay very bullish.
P.S.: even though FSD timelines are polarizing, the above is applicable to FSD also. Most people cannot extrapolate: "FSD is terrible now, so will never work." Only when FSD is recognized/allowed by some state government will these people start considering full autonomy exists and can possibly play a role in their daily lives. Looking at the (r)evolution of the internet since the 1990's until now, a mere thirty years, I cannot with a straight face support the claims that FSD is something that will (only) happen in the far future (+10years away).
My personal FSD timeline is it will be achieved within three years from now. (December 2025) Seems a long time compared to Elons predictions but in the grand scheme of things that is nothing.
Who will achieve autonomy first? "Oh Tesla's going to win level 5." - George Hotz. Jim Keller seems to agree.
And I'm equally optimistic regarding Optimus. Possibly even more so. This company can change the world. (and already has, actually)
TL;DR: #bullish
Absurd Corroboration Department (actual quotations from conversations I have had):
1. "but how can you use an electric car, if it rains you'll be shocked";
2. "where do you put the gasoline?";
3. "how often do you need to change the oil?";
Those happened, but, none of those comments were from anybody who'd actually buy a car since all three were from people over age 80. In context all three were in the presence of a young child who quite gently explained the errors. She is now 12 years old and has developed a passion for certain video games, which she says are available in Teslas. I have no notion if she's right or wrong and I note she lives in a country without Tesla sales.
It does remain interesting that the pace of technological change is becoming faster and faster, and Tesla is far ahead of the adoption curve. Frankly I rather suspect the truthful addressable market for Tesla is growing exponentially as it reaches adulthood. Without question trends towards lower driving license holding are rising globally, and desire to own cars is lowering too. The residual demand, though, is enormous and growing fast. Whether the Luddities can see it or not is irrelevant, The ICE age is declining rapidly.
Of course that does not mean TSLA shares will grow to reflect all that. Luddites still are largely in control of press, media and politics almost everywhere. Despite that Norway and California ARE leading indicators. IMHO, legislation helps, no question, but adoption grows mostly with demonstrated desirability and accessibility.
As Elon said, Tesla will rapidly enter new markets that may be small individually but will in aggregate be large. The next couple fo years will see Tesla become nearly global. All by itself that will change ideas and 'lift all boats', so long as, of course, those 'boats' can float. We can debate which companies will survive and which will thrive. We already know there will be Chinese, micro options from many countries plus Tesla, but we already see industrial and bus fleets moving towards faster adoption that cars, and public utilities moving rapidly too. While we mostly don't cover those, we might think a bit about receptivity for BEV's from people who've ridden electric busses, driven them, or approved them.
