Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Honestly, I don't know what the current CEPA tariff is. I would love to find a source from say the last 3 years, because it looks like it keeps getting re-negotiated.

Indeed, from what I can see HS 8703907000, electric vehicles (page 1214[3]) had a base tarrif of 8% and it would have gone to 0 upon enacting CEPA.
So something else is going on, I suppose.

 

[MC3OZ]

I didn't understand then either, but I think I get it now. They're probably slowing down their ramp-up because they forecasted a slowdown in purchases this year due to macroeconomic factors. If their demand forecast ticks up later this year, Tesla will have a more aggressive production growth target for next year.

I disagree with the claim that they are slowing down the ramp.

IMO it is more likely that the problem is cell supply and the 4680 ramp is the issue.

The plan is to ramp 4680 production for an additional 1000 packs per week per quarter
Q2 1,000- 13,000, Q3 2,000 - 26,000, Q4 3,000- 39,000. Total = 78,000.

I assume that the volume of 2170 cells is relatively fixed and making more 2170 packs reduces Semi production.

IMO to get to 2 million cars produced in 2023 that 78,000 additional Model Ys need to at least double, Cybertruck willl probably be no more than 10,000.

 

[SO16]

Unfortunately this article doesn’t explicitly say either about import tariffs from SK. But interesting none the less about import rates going up.

As far as SK:
“Carmakers including South Korea's Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) and Kia Corp (000270.KS), Germany's Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE), Skoda Auto and Japan's Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) sell imported cars in the country, with some also selling electric models.”

India raises tax on imported cars, motorbikes, including EVs

India on Wednesday said it will raise taxes on imported cars and motorbikes, including electric vehicles (EVs), as it seeks to boost local manufacturing in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" campaign ahead of elections in 2024.

www.reuters.com

 

[MC3OZ]

My concern is the most populous nation in the world, with a long-standing history of poor environmental acumen, holding on to ICE for as long as possible. Doesn't press forward with the mission.

There is a limit to what Tesla can do if India doesn't cooperate.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I never understood their 1.8M goal, even 2M is barely any ramp everywhere Basically means that all the lines that are running on all factories are at or close to max capacity

Project Highland switchover (likely in Q3) will affect Model 3 production (Fremont and Shanghai). I expect ~3 or 4 weeks to do the cutover, perhaps staggered across 2 qtrs. That may be part of the wide range of prod. targets.

 

[Etna]

There is a limit to what Tesla can do if India doesn't cooperate.

That's why I just mentioned a few posts upthread that Elon started following Modi two weeks ago. They most likely will find a way to work this out.

 

[Bobfitz1]

But the strong Jan orders were just pulled forward orders. So now they have to reduce prices again and again to stimulate demand. We don't know what the demand elasticity is (i.e. price elasticity of demand) - and how much they may have to reduce further to move 1.8M cars this year ... or ~2.5M cars next year, until the lower priced models come.

Ironic that Tesla forgot elasticity can vary greatly when conditions chill.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My concern is the most populous nation in the world, with a long-standing history of poor environmental acumen, holding on to ICE for as long as possible. Doesn't press forward with the mission.

Indeed, China used to be the rogue elephant at the COP negotiating table, but with the best-value EVs in the world now being produced locally, and a Megafactory looming in the near future, Chinese CO2 emissions are no longer the world's top urgent concern.

India, however, with it's dirty coal-powered grid and large, polluting ICE fleet is the next nut what needs cracking. I believe that process began in Washington, D.C. this week.



Thanks for keeping your eye on the prize, Elon. (u da man!)

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I got nothing against octogenarians….

Yeah, Charlie Munger is a nonagenarian (at least for another 8 mths). He turns 100 on Jan 1st.

 

[wtlloyd]

I got nothing against octogenarians… but not usually who I turn to when I have questions about cutting edge technology.

Munger and Buffet understand some fundamentals of investing quite well, but the investing which has made them money over the years has never been bleeding edge tech. The closest them come to that is Apple… which they bought nearly a decade after they should have.

Charlie is a nonagenarian, on the cusp of becoming a centenarian, which is quite impressive and brings a LOT of tolerance to his misguided certainties.

*edit - Dang, scooped by Dodger.

 

[wtlloyd]

Ironic that Tesla forgot elasticity can vary greatly when conditions chill.

View attachment 932482

You had to live through this and be paying attention, to have any idea who that is and what he is doing. Made me laugh, well played!

 

[samppa]

I'm in Berlin right now, and toured the factory today.
It was amazing!
Status of ramp: a finished car comes out of the line about once/minute, goes to a supercharger, then to trailer.

Takes 10 hours to go from a block of aluminium to a finished model Y!

Berlin Y is all aluminium, we were told. I understand fremont and shanghai Y are part aluminium, part steel.

The whole production line just seems so simple, they've really managed to simplify the car.

Ramp is going good!

 

[Prunesquallor]

You had to live through this and be paying attention, to have any idea who that is and what he is doing. Made me laugh, well played!

I lived through it from the NASA side.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I disagree with the claim that they are slowing down the ramp.

IMO it is more likely that the problem is cell supply and the 4680 ramp is the issue.

The plan is to ramp 4680 production for an additional 1000 packs per week per quarter
Q2 1,000- 13,000, Q3 2,000 - 26,000, Q4 3,000- 39,000. Total = 78,000.

I assume that the volume of 2170 cells is relatively fixed and making more 2170 packs reduces Semi production.

IMO to get to 2 million cars produced in 2023 that 78,000 additional Model Ys need to at least double, Cybertruck willl probably be no more than 10,000.

Are they actually still building semis other than the original 38?

 

[GhostSkater]

Are they actually still building semis other than the original 38?

Yes, they started back again this week

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650856876844933121

 

[Artful Dodger]

Berlin Y is all aluminium, we were told. I understand fremont and shanghai Y are part aluminium, part steel.

I am highly skeptical of that claim. The car's crash structure would have to be entirely re-engineered to switch materials like that.

Anybody own a magnet and a MiB Model Y? It'd be trivial to find out if formerly steel parts are now made of aluminum.

I'd check these areas on a Berlin Model Y: (magnets stick to steel, but not to aluminum)

Amount of aluminum vs steel used on the Model 3: (for reference)​

 

[Carl Raymond]

My thought is that the 1.8M is for Wall Street's benefit.

I felt they had lost their appetite for being hit over the head for circumstances beyond their control- Covid shutdowns, sudden rate hikes, IRA coming into play without any clarity - so they gave themselves a cushion.

 

[GhostSkater]

I am highly skeptical of that claim. The car's crash structure would have to be entirely re-engineered to switch materials like that.

Anybody own a magnet and a MiB Model Y? It'd be trivial to find out if the steel parts are steel.

I'd check these areas on a Berlin Model Y: (magnets stick to steel, but not to aluminum)

Amount of aluminum vs steel used on the Model 3: (for reference)​

Yeah, no way this is true

All the USS steel will be there, what could have changed is some of the body panels, which in 3/Y are not aluminum everywhere

If I remember correctly doors were aluminum and rest steel

 

[Jeeps17]

Berlin Y is all aluminium, we were told. I understand fremont and shanghai Y are part aluminium, part steel.

I may well have missed it but this is the first time I read that a non-S/X Tesla does not use steel panels. The latter are often the corrosion weak link in winter climes with use of road salt and abrasives.

Good news if accurate, but I wonder if the process can be grafted to North American factories.

 

[DarthPierce]

I may well have missed it but this is the first time I read that a non-S/X Tesla does not use steel panels. The latter are often the corrosion weak link in winter climes with use of road salt and abrasives.

Good news if accurate, but I wonder if the process can be grafted to North American factories.

I can vouch that the doors and hood of my 2020 MYP (fremont) are aluminum and the quarterpanels are steel.